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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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I have the same areas marked right now as interesting -- 56.50, 43.50, 59 (from yesterday)... quite a drop we had there and rebound up... looked to be a short term bottom as the volume came in at 53, but with 19K contracts traded over 1 minute, the sellers really ate it up at 56... quite amazing actually, 2464 contracts traded there in just a few seconds .. quite a lot for pre-market. Looked like a new spike or something, but AFAIK it wasn't.
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The perfect tool for screenshots is Jing -- free, has arrows, text, etc. And you can use their server if you choose. The only thing missing is a pen tool so I can't draw lines or bendy lines. That's why I was curious. So, if you want great capture, try Jing. I was just wondering about the lines though... In Jing, I set my keyboard shortcut to CTRL+SHIFT+C, and I hide the little "sun" and every time I want to capture I hit my hotkey and away we go... couldn't be easier, I'm a big fan.
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Here's a chart showing a beautiful trade opportunity. I was too chicken at the time to take it, due to my good day up to that point and being overly cautious about continuing. The perfect balance of the bell curve made the break up from it confirm that it was indeed a bullish environment. Later after reaching the highs we sold back off, but have not gone below 54 which was near the lower end of that distribution. By the way N, what software do you use to mark up your charts (type on them, draw lines, etc.)?
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I have taken a few trades, all for about +3.25 total -- the movement is actually very clean generally, during the first hour or so anyway. Looks short right now.
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Morning N (or afternoon as the case may be ) ... I just took a scalp long at 55, out 56.75 for +1.75, good way to start the morning! Target was 59 but wanted to bank a little before the potential choppy open. We have 7 straight days of increasing POC and value areas (ETH session values). Overnight it couldn't even reach 43.50 to test last week's close. So, I see lots of strength in the market right now, despite the failure yesterday. I guess the key will be what happens if/when it retests the 66.
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Buyers look very week at the high here, but problem is sellers aren't doing any better and taking advantage of it. They held the high, but right now low amount of selling, but even that low amount of selling is being held by the bids. Just sloppy day, can't remember one this dreary, even opex day. edit: also, sellers will have to contend with 62.75-63.25, might not be so easy unless they really pour it on.
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Quite the snoozer ... passed on a short signal at 65.50, which would have been a pretty okay trade given the day so far. Took a short 63.25 around 11:45 but scratched it BE a few minutes later. Good call on the upper end... not much going on here, trying to stay awake and hopefully we will get some movement. Holding just above Friday's / last week's high, but struggling to take it higher... looks a bit pitiful, but sellers even more so.
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Hope you had a good weekend N -- what exactly is the premise behind the low volume prices (at the right of your chart) being possible upside targets? Why not the heavily concentrated area of volume below it? I have a model in my head that I'm constantly working with, and this doesn't quite fit with that, and curious as to your basis for this.
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Decided to stay a little more solo and quiet today. Took a nice short at 52, out at 47.50, and another short later at 52, out 50 even. I had 4 losers as well, but fortunately kept them pretty small so netted 3 points. I shorted 58 at the top but got scared and was out for -0.25 on that trade, and so wished I had stayed in it longer. Of all my trades, two were dumb--forced and not well thought out. The other two losers were quite good premises and could have gone either way. Overall not a bad performance today, however, not great either. The best part though is that I traded the short side successfully. I did have a great long setup near the close of the day that I took that didn't work, but probably would have worked on any other day than a Friday. Hope yours was a good day too, and enjoy your weekend! N, any time you (or anyone) wishes to share a chart at the end of the day with the trades you took (or just mention them), it would always be appreciated. The charts before the day are great, but how you traded some of the day's activity would also be great info.
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Yes -- immediate direction looks a bit down to me at the moment though.. 43.75 failed twice doesn't look promising, though sentiment looks long to me at this time.
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would love to see 48 but i may settle for 45 given the selling strength we have had stop is 42.25 ... lots of sellers here, want to walk away with something edit: out 43.50 for +2 .. may buy breakout
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bought 41.50, stop 40 ......
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out BE ..............
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filled and out at 39 for -1.25 ... looked good to start with bid 40.25 filled, see where this goes
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got a 40.25 bid .....
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This market still seems relatively strong at the moment, going on just price. Even with a 402K unemployment and forecast 390K, it only traded down 4 points. Pretty strong move up right through yesterday's close and high. Will be interesting to see ISM and how market reacts to it.
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Good question -- Tuesday's open interest was 2,950,000 so we may have some idea after today's settlement on that... though that won't give us tons of info
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Seems like market waiting for ISM.
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After that little stop run close to midnight last night, it tested 36 on the low side, and back up to 48 on the news spike. What you see as good buying I also see as lots of sellers demonstrating their willingness to get out of this market. Almost half a million contracts traded in the last half hour, and look how far price went relatively speaking... not very far. Classic Wyckoff: huge huge effort, very small result. After that, just a blip above, and now we're holding below yday's high. So far the area below where that buying really started (36ish) has been tested and it has held. So, I would not want to see it go really much below that with seller strength; if it does, it will be an indication that the sellers who absorbed all that buying yesterday have the upper hand, and we could see a big batch of selling as it tests in the low 1200s. Just my opinion.
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One of my (many) weaknesses is shorting right now. I have a difficult time shorting. Buying is just easier for me. So sometimes when I see what I think is a good opportunity I'll sim trade it, and have been doing this for several shorts but not posting them. I thought, the buying doesn't look real, and 33 or lower is almost a given, so why not catch a little of it? I looked and realized that we've been short for several hours, and perhaps catching a small leg of it would be good. I did not take the trade with real money because it's not a comfortable trade for me yet, but I wouldn't mind catching those 1 to 2 point scalps, but I need to get comfortable doing it first. 32.50 held beautifully, almost too beautifully to be convinced it would not break. The volume looked picture perfect for me for a long. After buyers proved themselves after the initial move up from 32.50, on the retest, I saw nothing special. I saw a lack of interest, and I was looking for more buying interest AT 32.50 to 33... I didn't see it, and it kind of meandered it's way up, then started to look for real too late for me to be comfortable jumping in. I'm still developing the ability to stay focused. I'm getting better but I failed to capitalize on the opportunity to buy 33 when I had the chance ... actually now that I remember, I actually did bid 33 after it came up the second time from 32.50, but was not filled. Had I been convinced in the trade though, I would have paid up to 33.50. So I could have gotten lucky and got filled, but essentially I was not fully convinced enough to pay up a little more.
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filled +2 on that sim short ... hard for me to take some of those trades that I feel 90% confident in, for some reason.
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I'm not comfortable shorting this, so I took a sim short 34.75, target 32.50
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If 34 breaks, which it looks like it will, my buy zone would be 32 to 33.50
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For the benefit of anyone reading, Here is a chart to accompany my reason for considering closing the trade at 37.75 or 38. These profile bars are 1m in length. Note the volume that took place at 38 (red arrow). Buyers actively buying, offers held very well. But that doesn't mean much, what means more is what happened next... it failed to follow through, found support at 37.50, and then did not break above 38 again. It's really a tossup if I have to be honest, as a buyer could have slammed a couple of thousand contracts and we'd be higher. However, my gut told me to close the trade a minute or two after 38.25 failed to break, and this was my objective piece of evidence to go with it. I think generally it's a good play to stick with the long side on a day like today with huge movements up, and that's why I stuck with it a little longer; I'll put it like this: I'd generally rather be long on a day like today than short.
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Tough environment to make money in IMO ... 2+ hour range of 5 points... kinda getting tired of a 50 point globex range and then 12 point RTH range :missy: Hard to short this, as they keep buying the dips. Hard to buy this, as bears pretty much in control after initial push up.
