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joshdance

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by joshdance

  1. joshdance
    Yeah I was still on Z yesterday, volume was still quite a lot larger; today H is higher, and yesterday 4:30pm EST was official time H became front month contract according to CME.
  2. joshdance
    You are labeled appropriately with the "C", and people/vendors are always posting links to videos, etc., so I think it's okay. What people have responded to negatively in the past is people who sell stuff who try to pretend that they don't.
  3. joshdance
    morning N -- you re-download your continuous contract data already I assume?
  4. joshdance
    Is it possible that during the trading day today you could turn on your recorder and record your DOM and tape, and point out later on some things you see that fit the bill?
  5. joshdance
    And herein lies the big challenge.. how do you know when sellers run out of steam? Well, there are good indications, but you don't know until it actually reverses. On ES yesterday for example, it was a grinding down trend day, and many times sellers looked like they had run out of steam. However, the critical component missing was that buyers never took control and pushed it up significantly. So sometimes, when it tests the low 3 times, it will just blow right on through the 4th time... with no real confirmation, it winds up becoming a dangerous guessing game.
  6. joshdance
    Another way to read that is: look how many market buys it takes to move price up (quite a lot) relative to how many market sells it takes to move it down (relatively few). In other words, little movement in price up, despite decent amount of buying. Offers holding well. Price about 60% of where it was earlier, and delta same level. Potential good short. Just another perspective.. this is how I use delta.
  7. joshdance
    Sorry AgeKay, was just about to post that I'm sorry for sidetracking the thread. Looking forward to more great posts.
  8. joshdance
    I have found just the opposite to be true--volume analysis helps me immensely in the short term -- long term is a toss up for my personal read, as too many sociopolitical and world events thrown into the mix. I would suggest you put up a volume chart that gives you a comfortable pace, a 1m chart with a volume histogram, and if possible a volume profile. Also, open up the time and sales. Just give things a look, see how you like that view of the world. Have no preconceived notions, no ideas about what works and what doesn't. Part of the problem I had was that I was looking for some general rule, like, volume increases on the way up meant continuation, or a volume going down pattern meant lack of continuation, etc. .. throw those generalities away, and just watch. You might be surprised at what you observe when you are making your own observations, rather than going on what you think is supposed to be true.
  9. joshdance
    Thanks very much for this N -- I don't try to trade off the news per se, but I do like to know the relative gist of it. Good skill and luck today! I did take a +1.75 scalp earlier here near the bottom, but pretty quiet on the open here so far...
  10. joshdance
    What is the gist of his comments, do you know? I am too fundamentally unsavvy to interpret anyway...
  11. joshdance
    Volume indicates participation. Participation comes from both sides. When the side opposing a current move is interested enough to join, they have the potential to slow down or stop the current move. Observe the effort of volume, and notice the effect on the result of price. A large effort with minimal results indicates that the participation from the other side of the current move has shown enough interest to slow it down, potentially for a reversal. What is key is what happens AFTER this. Does the other side gain momentum, or does the current move resume? If the current move resumes, is the volume (participation) as large? If it begins to reverse, does the other side show enough participation to reverse the direction of price?
  12. joshdance
    AgeKay, thanks very much for this. I particularly like the first two or three posts; the later ones start sounding like typical stuff and I was a bit disappointed in those, however, the first ones regarding simplicity are just golden.
  13. joshdance
    out at 56.25 for +1.75 I know I'm early and it will likely go to 53 or so, but boy the bids are just strong. edit: got lucky -- 57.75 actually went offer when it traded 57.50, but no takers... after that I eased it up to 58 but definitely lucky I wasn't ticked out.
  14. joshdance
    Which high do you mean? it's at 58 now
  15. joshdance
    Shorted 58, stop 59, let's see if we can get 53 on this EDIT: stop to 57.75 .. heavy bids and really should go from here... stop should be 59 but don't want to risk it.
  16. joshdance
    Yes I'll take it -- down 0.75 then for the day so far. I'm afraid to say I knew it too... I've had to re-learn the lesson the hard way many times, that volume tells me where to go, and it didn't appear until 57... had I waited for that, even a predictive short at 57 would have survived with a 2 point stop. I'm considering another short at 58, depending on how it looks. Perhaps 57.50 is the high of the retest and it will go down from here, but it does not appear it will break the high, IMO. But this time I will wait to see.
  17. joshdance
    took +2 at 56.25.......
  18. joshdance
    I am back in short 58.25
  19. joshdance
    out for -2.75, should have waited for confirmation (as you mentioned)...
  20. joshdance
    I am short 56, stop is 58.50 ...
  21. joshdance
    Yes it concerns me slightly that sellers just pushed pretty hard here at 53 -- if they win, I'm not in it; if they lose, bulls have more stops they can run, and that might push it through 56. But 56.75 is multi-day POC, 50%, should at least put the brakes on.. we haven't had any really pullbacks of significance since the low. At some point they will have to at least feed the fire. My long term look is up--my premise was that as long as it held above 40s, that I'd be looking for longs. Yet, I'm not interested in getting long at this point or at 56, so a short to catch a 56 given the above reasons seems a reasonable trade.
  22. joshdance
    Yes, 50% from 68 high to 44 low.
  23. joshdance
    Actually I had a buy limit initially at 43 for a blind buy, looking at the 43.50 high vol same reasoning as you ... Looking to sell 56 now... it's the reaction point from before, and also happens to be the 50% of the entire up to down move. Should find enough confluence there to make it a good sell.
  24. joshdance
    Beer for $50 -- probably not. But $25-50 is a "normal" price for software of this type. I wouldn't pay $50 for a beer, but if it was my favorite kind and I really wanted one, sure, I'd pay $15 (about twice as much as usual) :-)
  25. joshdance
    Understand -- ironically, I had not tried snagit and just downloaded it right now. It's like Jing only it lets me do the bendy arrows and all that. I will trial it but $50 sounds pretty reasonable if it does conveniently what no other program can do for me. So, it looks like 56 will be the upside key for me if it gets there... above that looks long to me, below that looks short. It's yesterday's VPOC but more importantly, it's the place that the big spike couldn't take out.
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