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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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out for +0.25, paid for commissions at least
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sold one at 13.25, stop 14, cross your fingers for me
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I attribute the dithering somewhat to the time of day. Also, while not any selling conviction at this moment, there has been little to no buying conviction at all today until recently. And it can't keep going straight down. They need buyers to buy in, feel the pain, and then use them to help it slide down; not saying that will happen, but it's got to go up enough to rope in enough people who will later bail. If it's below 1213, sellers still in control IMO. Not saying I won't take a long if it looks right though, almost took the 06.50 long off of vpoc and IB low.
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You mean that they should have already pushed it back down instead of letting it linger?
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bulls pushing it, but bears may have just said "thanks for getting it above the VWAP for us :-/
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No trades today yet N ... not much bull strength, but sentiment seems to have changed. Don't want to get caught, so being cautious here.
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Looks very weak overnight... unless some strong buying comes in, I will look to short.
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Thanks--IRT has the tools, so why not put it to use
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The thing is, I do think there is some value to statistical analysis having to do with the value area. However, the original criteria is not even clear. I did the best I could given the picture and description, but if one is going to claim 80%, then one needs to be sure the criteria for achieving it are clear. -
Okay, I just did some statistical analysis. Used the ES, continuous contract, RTH only. Out of the past 1000 trading days, here's the deal: Number of times price opens below the prior value area, and after thirty minutes is either at or above the prior value area low: 53 Out of those, number of times the next 30 minute bar stays above the prior value area low: 23 Out of those, number of times the prior value area high is tagged before the day is over: 20 The good news: 20/23 is pretty good. The bad news part 1: the prior VAH was actually taken out during that second 30 minute period on all but 8 days. In other words, if you wait for the first 60 minutes, then on all but 8 days you had no trade. Of those 8 days, 5 hit the upper VA from the prior day. So, in the past 4 years, 5 out of 8 days (62%) have fit the picture shown here where the price opens below prior value, and the first 30 minute bar closes inside, and the second 30 minute bar stays inside the prior value area. For the other scenario, where the open is above prior day's value and the first 30 minutes close inside value, we have 67 days. Of those, there are 30 days in which the second thirty minute bar stays within prior value. Of those, 12 days are such that the second thirty minute period stays completely inside value (in other words, the value area low is not taken out during the second 30 minute period). Of those, 6 days hit the VAL (50%). So out of the last 4 years, the bottom line is, you have had a very small handful of days in which the scenario described here fits (53 days if we are liberal, 20 if we go by the description here), and of those we have a slightly greater than 50% win rate. In other words, don't hold your breath. Hope this helps. Larry, if you or anyone wants to dispute this analysis, please do so and I'll be happy to report more details though I really don't want to waste my time doing so. Maybe it would be better if you could post days where this actually worked.
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I never claimed 80% accuracy; accuracy of what even? I have no idea what you're talking about. Maybe you confused me with the original poster.
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No one uses 80% for a value area; it's still 70%. Please get your facts straight before you let the world know...
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The Secret (or Not) to Day Trading Futures
joshdance replied to AgeKay's topic in Day Trading and Scalping
Just as AgeKay says that a chart isn't necessary, that all is needed is to watch order flow, perhaps phantom is saying that neither is observation of the order book, and that all he needs is to view resulting price behavior as displayed on a chart. Different tools for different traders... -
Not the median, the mode (POC). It's usually 70%. From MoM: "First, identify the price at which the greatest volume occurred. Then, sum the volumes occurring at the two prices directly above the high-volume price and compare it to the total volume of the two prices below the high-volume price. The dual price total with the highest volume becomes part of the value area. This process continues until 70 percent of the volume is reached." Practically speaking though, best to let a piece of software do it for you. Investor R/T does it, NT's gomi indicators will do it, I think MultiCharts does it, and a slew of others. There are alternative ways to calculate the VA and I don't know if the above description from MoM is what's usually used today anyway. Just let the software do the work.
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Problem is, for every good piece of information that is helpful to someone, there are another ten pieces of information which distract and delay the learning process... I'm not excluding my own posts from the "useless" or "harmful" category if the shoe fits of course. And of course some information may be factually correct but mislead one trader while it helps another. The challenge is to personally find what works for each of us. Just my , which should be noted, may not be worth anything to the reader.
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Had a nice trade this afternoon N, long 22.25, and out 29.75 for +7.50 .. came close to being stopped out but survived and happy to take just that one trade today! I waited for that long all day but it was worth it Patience paid off, now imagine that... maybe I'll learn?
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Only 125 contracts sold below the IB low... EDIT: Yet last weeks' low is just a few points below, and buyers not really running with it yet, tells me maybe they are waiting for a better buy...
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stops run, now more ready to move up than before, not that it will... 18K contracts in 1 minute.. that's the kind of participation i am looking for
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I would wager a guess that 1225-1223 would come if this area doesn't hold.. don't see much reason for buyers to really step in before then
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Unfortunately I don't see enough buyer participation yet to consider a long, though this area is my buy area.
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Pete, after having looked at this for a bit, I can certainly see some value. With an instrument like ES though, it would be too easy for me to get caught up in the minutiae.
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My peeve is when I go to marketwatch or some other BS site, and there was news 15 minutes ago , and it just now gets posted... like, I could have created a freaking web site and announced the headline in less time than it took for you to just post it. My REAL peeve though, is how they try to attribute some fundamental reason to ever single move they report. "Dow moves higher on euro debt concerns" and yada yada. Sometimes it's legit. But sometimes the market just moves. The funniest was the other day when unemployment report was the high of the globex day, then proceeded to sell off the entire day. Yet, because globex traded higher than the last day's close, the headline was "Stocks soar on positive unemployment, ..." Despite the fact that the report was released AFTER a whole globex trading of up, up, up.
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John, attached is an accurate heat map profile of the euro futures contract. As no volume is available for forex, this is about as accurate a volume picture as you can get for fx. As you can see, your heat map profile is quite a bit inaccurate. The volume is much more heavily concentrated towards the bottom of the profile, which should make sense, as there was very little volume until 8am EST, and then the heaviest period was 9am to 10am. Then it spent some time in the lower range developing value. Also, I'm curious -- you seem to have a daily profile set up from midnight to midnight. Why? A much more logical option is to use 6pm EST as the start of your 24 hour trading day. No market trades from midnight to midnight EST.
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The Secret (or Not) to Day Trading Futures
joshdance replied to AgeKay's topic in Day Trading and Scalping
Sorry for venting a little bit, but did you ever hear of googling the text? "MD Trader" ... and do you really need to quote the entire post to ask that one question? Some of us look at this site on a phone, and it's frustrating as hell to scroll 200 lines of text which don't need to be quoted. -
Thanks Pete, will give it a look later--happy trading this morning.