Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.
joshdance
-
Content Count
1793 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Everything posted by joshdance
-
Here are the results for the original cisco test from the last 1000 days. 120 days price opened outside of value and closed the first 30 mins with it. Of those, 75 times it hit the other end of the value area. So, 12% setup rate, 62.5% success rate. Attached is the chart showing the test results. Obviously it would be good to know how large the value area was, but I don't have time right now to do this. I did also calculate how often the prior VPOC is hit, and it's 107 out of 120 times, or 89% of the time. This testing does not account for cases where, for example, the POC is near one extreme of the prior VA, which perhaps is hit even during the first 30 minutes. Also, for the opposite end VA being hit, it does not account for cases where the prior VA is quite small, and again, perhaps the first 30 minutes closes very near or even past the end of the VA itself. More extensive testing would need to be performed to determine how often cases like this occur. -
If you're saying that a system can be taught to someone in an hour, and that person then has the ability to go out into the markets and trade against the best traders in the world, and trade profitably from now on based on that one hour of training, then I will go waaay out on a limb and call BS on you. (how's that for a TL welcome? ) Nothing personal, but your first post here sounds like an advertisement for a trading system. It's the newbie's dream: skip all the hard stuff (you know, the thousands of hours of screen time learning how to actually trade), find the holy grail system, and get someone to show me in an hour how to make tons of money. Sorry, but you're either a vendor in disguise, or completely delusional.
-
Irrelevant. Though I have no personal digs to take at someone, because this isn't personal, it's business, the fact remains that what's posted here is a strategy which obviously hasn't undergone any sort of back testing. As a discretionary trader, I do not put a lot of stock into the type of back testing I performed as posted earlier for my own personal methods, but when a claim is made of 80%, then it should bear scrutiny. And under scrutiny, it's obvious that the criteria for this trade premise is not even common enough to encounter more than once or a month over the last few years. Hardly the way a professional, and a 20 year veteran at that, should approach his trading, particularly as he is posting as a registered vendor (with this site) and thus looking to gain business. I have the utmost respect for Larry or any other pit traders who could survive that long. But the topic at hand stands. Most of his other articles have been on things like moving averages, "the trend is your friend," and other truly useless information. I have not read them all but a browse of them should leave you unimpressed. I went to his web site and briefly watched the video of him on Bloomberg. This is supposed to convey credibility, but listening to his words, I hear nothing of substance, as is the case with most anything on that channel or CNBC. Again, he has more street cred than me, that's for sure, I'm just a newbie nobody. But I can guarantee you that I won't post an article about value areas and make claims that I don't back up with data. To top it off, he has several posts here, has received a few thanks from other members, but has not once thanked anyone else. Really? There are many useful posts here from members who know their stuff; it kind of bugs me when guru-wannabes come on a site, post stuff like "the trend is your friend", and don't thank much more helpful posts from long time contributing members.
-
Hope your evening was good -- despite missing the huge move due to an early exit, I am happy with my psychological state throughout the day, and all this week. I took 1 more trade today for +1.00, so made +1.75 today. I pretty much shut down with about 45 minutes to the close, and just watched a bit. Have a great weekend N and everyone.
-
On a related note, someone the other day was talking about how he missed the big down day in crude oil this week because of other obligations, and how he had total peace about missing it, whereas in the past he would have almost rather lost money trying than to not be there for it. When I first started trading I felt the same way--if I was not at the screen and it was a big day, I would be so upset. Then sitting there day after day when I started, I realized that being there when it moves is no guarantee that one will make money Seeing those big moves go by while having the ability to be in them, or worse, fading those big moves and losing money, made me realize that a good trader will make money (or not lose much) regardless of whether the market is moving or relatively sideways. I was not and still not there yet consistently, but it was quite eye opening. On an ES note, nice little drop we're having here. Am I at peace for covering my 23 short at 21.50? Absolutely. Of course, I'd love to still be short, but that was the trade. Bull dominated up day, and buying came in strong at 21, so I'm out with my profit. Will be interesting to see what happens rest of today.
-
Part of the discipline I've tried REALLY hard to focus on this week is simply watching and sitting, and not forcing anything. I've taken probably 15-18 trades this week, and only 2 of them were utterly stupid entries. This means I've gotten better at waiting, and sometimes I overdo it and miss a move, but as I've heard it said, I'd rather be watching the market wishing I was in it, than in it and wishing I was flat! Part of the discipline I will continue for the rest of today is simply watching, waiting, and being patient. If I make it through the rest of today without taking a trade which I could label as "forced" or "impatient" or similar, then I will consider it a very successful week, regardless of profit or loss. Additionally, I will feel much better going into Monday morning having witnessed how the story today unfolds. Not just looking at the chart after the fact, but sitting here as I do every day and letting the market tell me a story. When I miss part of the story, it makes it more difficult for me to get back in sync the next day or later in the day. I'm sure this will change as I get more used to trading and as I get more experience, but for now the more screen time the better, as long as I don't use that time for self-sabotage and stupidity. Though, I may very well go for a nice walk outside over lunch time
-
Thanks for the chart N -- I also put in a bid at the low but this was after it went above 18 at which point it was too late. I tried a short scalp for -0.75, but just now took a short on the fake up to 23.25 / vpoc, and took a +1.50 scalp from it. I've had a very good week (yesterday only small losing day), and don't want to get witched today, so I'm being cautious. Interesting little battle right now... bids holding, but then offers holding. Not a place I want to have a position right now unless my trade is risk free in the money already.
-
Thanks buddy; I know that my management is poor many times. When I trade poorly, the thing that is common every time is that I am impulsive, I enter too quickly, and make the stops too large. So my "overmanagement" is probably overcompensating for what I do when I do poorly. When I do well, even when I have these kinds of stopouts, I usually manage to make money, due to the fact that I never dig much of a hole to begin with, and come from a better place psychologically for the rest of the day or week. So, I think this is why I mismanage--to reduce risk. While it's not logical, it psychologically beats the alternative (letting a trade go way in profit and then letting it come all the way for my stop, for example, as I've done before).
-
Thanks for advice both of you -- am always interested in trades you are taking, and how you manage your stops during the trade. This would be of great help, no doubt.
-
yes ..................
-
out for + a tick ... probably shaken out
-
lots of volume here so stop to 13.25 (+0.25)
-
Yeah I'm joking about being tired .. my thought process is clear, my brain just interpreted "fifty" as "fifteen"
-
sure it was....... j/k ;-)
-
shorted 13.15, stop 14.15 EDIT: er, 13.50, stop 14.50 must be tired
-
have been thinking the same thing for the last 20 mins! ... looks pretty weak here, declining volume, but not quite enough confirmation for a short for me yet
-
Gap finally filled down to 1198 ... 1180 would be next if that support fails, but I have a feeling long term buyers have been waiting for this area to test and hold, and may take this thing up. But that's just a feeling, and in no way connected to what will happen on the chart. Happy trading !
-
Wow, this is a real newbie bait thread. Clueless, incoherent talk about "price action" and dogging indicators from someone who can't even type in paragraphs (enters a new line for every sentence), much less who knows about how the indicators are calculated that he is calling useless. But I'll bet he can sell you a seminar or "system" which is much better! The only thing worse than a trading system vendor is a forex trading system vendor. Yeah, target the real newbies who don't even have enough money to open a futures or equities account.
-
Thanks, and thanks for your good advice earlier, see you tomorrow N.
-
just took +3, bought 04.75, out 07.75, finally, whew, calling it a day.
-
What about this break of 03.25? 3 ticks down, but right back up..
-
you first :rofl: Too subjective to analyze statistically I think, at least for my feeble intelligence
-
The prior high at 13.25 does not count as an extreme to you? Except for the fake run up first thing at the open, this was the most major swing high of the day.. ? Granted, it's not HOD, or extreme relative to larger swings, but intraday it looks like a major area to me. And turns out it was actually.
-
Good point N -- I reasoned that after a 1-tick failure to break the high, that it should not retrace all the way back to the high, much less go above it and do yet another 1 tick failed breakout and then go. I know 2.25 isn't much, but it was where it was at that I looked at. Either way +0.25 is better than nothing I suppose (though not much better )
-
Frustrating. Could have left stop at 14, but after a 1 tick failure to break down at 11.25, I thought for sure (especially with the apparent urgency in which it came back up) that it was headed for 18s... instead, it breaks 1 tick above, it holds, and then down we go to my target 08.50 ... so they will only sell 250 contracts at 11, but then after it makes yet another high they'll sell 650, and then they'll sell at 10s and 09s ... brilliant. I still give myself an A on the trade for waiting to get such a great price to give myself the flexibility of keeping my risk so small. Easy to say now I should not have moved my stop, but I think what happened here is not the norm, and in 3 out of 4 other cases I would have been tagged for a loss (albeit a small one). Took no heat on the trade, went in my favor 2.25, before eventually to my target of 4.75 -- always a good thing,