joshdance

I also bought 67 flat this morning. I don't know if any of this is in Ronin's thought process, but for me the context was clear and the thought process went something like this: 1) Market is clearly in bullish mode (see the last two days). 2) In the more immediate context, overnight the market spent 100% of its activity above yesterday's close, and most of it above the high (bullish) 3) News coming out at 10am is a great opportunity to take it lower, to fill buyers. 4) 68.50 is not a bad location (see overnight and yesterday afternoon), but yesterday's close is 67.25, and the market could not sell below 66.00 yesterday into the close. So, I know I want to buy, and I have a location (66 to 67.50). The bad news hits, and is a nice confirmation that I want to buy. Nice volume as expected on the news. Buyers trying here... but of course, the market must shake a few more out, and so it goes to 66.50, supported well by substantial volume (25K in 1 minute). The market tests 2 ticks lower on much lower volume, to 66.00, and the rest is history. The wave up was nice confirmation, but I was already flat at that point. I did not get a full position on at the bottom so scaling was not a good option.

Cool -- you mentioned the pivot and MA. Sometimes people put things on their chart and place significance and trade using it without ever really seeing evidence from the market that supports their choice. If you use them and you benefit as a result, awesome.

FYI, the testimony read to the house (today) is usually identical to the testimony read to the senate (yesterday). In other words, nothing new to be learned from his prepared statement. And Bernanke is very careful with his words, so a 2nd consecutive day of q&a is unlikely to unearth anything really that the market would find interesting. You obviously give some measure of significance to the daily pivot (I assume (H+L+C)/3), and the 200MA--just wondering, why?

:rofl: There would be a newfound respect for these morons if the headline was: "Stocks swing back higher: we have no f----- clue why, you don't either, so why do you care?" Instead, they insist it's relatively mediocre earnings from both KO and GS 6 hours ago back before the market sold off 16 handles. You really can't make it up, classic stuff.

I think "irrational exuberance" sums it up pretty well... I thoroughly look forward to reading the headlines this afternoon... "Market tanks on Bernanke's lack of QE3...eh.... market up, on _____________" <--fill in the blank

While Ben always gets some tough questions, he is really getting hit over and over about questions relating to the Libor issue. I did not expect that so much today.

Good catch, and the current high was also a prominent line on my structural chart -- from an intraday perspective, it can be seen that the 7/11 high you refer to was not only a high, but it was resistance several times during the day.

Leave it to Chuck Schumer to kiss Bernanke's ass and bring it back to politics , and kudos to Ben for doing an excellent job as he always does of remaining apolitical.. edit: and shame on Jim DeMint for jabbing back!

Ditto, and I must confess that I had a brief lapse of memory, and forgot (for shame) that Bernanke's testimony is released at 10am before he reads it. While it was a small risk, perhaps it would have been better to wait until just after 10am to see the market's reaction. Oh well, we trade and we learn.

We will see, but I just positioned long at 50s-- market wants to be higher and this move down maybe to fill a few more long at a better price ahead of testimony. But he'd better say something concrete today, or this market could tank... enough with the "we have XYZ at our disposal" ... market wants action at this point, not words. If lower, which I hope not, 46s obviously, and if 43 does not support, back to 30s.

MM, today was beautiful action for day trading. Friday was obviously directional and more clearly long, but as far as actual day trading goes, today was better, in my book anyway. Friday it's "jump on" or be left behind, and those are my worst days. When the market balances and ranges, I do my best. Typically, the less the range, the better my P/L. It's one of the many things I am working on improving about my trading though; I'd like to benefit much more from unidirectional markets.

Indeed, it was a no-brainer. In full disclosure, I did short a little earlier for a small loss but pulled the trigger long on the 43.75 / 44, and had a larger position than normal, due to a small enough stop because it looked like it would be a nice one. As far as reading it live, it was pretty clear from the DOM and tape, with good volume support visible, and the market was pretty clearly in auction/searching mode, not in impulsive selling mode. After the small failed buy, I waited for that last "up yours" test lower, and 43 was it. You saw on the tape the last few weak longs give up, feeling the pain or desire to be flat from Friday or whatever the case may be, and then it was free to move on up, where it really was trying to go in the first place. As far as location, on the attached 30m chart you see your 'singles' in the form of a clear up bar from Friday, but as an added bonus, the box I drew midweek last week to represent the two-day balance (7/6 and 7/7) had its low as 42.75. So on 7/10 the market tried to break north of this balance but fails, and trades lower. After it made its way back to the top of it Friday, today it looked for buyers at the bottom. Pretty "textbook" if there is such a thing. And all day afterward, the market has been supported at 46, which was premarket lows. Nothing fancy, no fancy charts needed, just good ol' basic stuff. In fact, I took a (perhaps foolish) buy at the end of the day at 47, as the market could not break this 46 level even at the close. I dislike these globex trades but this one has worked out and I am flat again (and can now sleep well , though I must say it is my desire to improve my trading to be able to hold more trades overnight). So, this was just another take on what you described Ronin. Thanks for your description, it's interesting how different types of analysis can yield similar ideas.

Um, "irrational" I think N This type of activity is certainly not rational, that's for sure.

Thanks for the posts Steve. Nicely different from the usual BS "systems" and it focuses on what's important, the actual behavior of the market. We have had differences of opinion on specifics before, but what you have outlined is in the ballpark of what I am doing as well. I do not put quite the emphasis on the half hour that you do or the initial ten minute segments, but I subdivide the time in a similar fashion with a bit more loose constraints. Excellent no-frills and very professional approach, thanks steve.

It will likely not help your cause, but feel free to give it a look to explore your options personally.

A pivot (if you mean a floor pivot calculated by (H+L+C)/3) is not a "key area of support." But let's say there is actual established support below. You have a few options: * If you want to be short, you should already be short well before the support. Have you ever played tennis? The area between the back service line and the baseline is sometimes called "no man's land." If you area around the baseline, you'll be able to return the shot off of a bounce. If you area between the service line and the net (inside the service court area) you will be able to return the shot as a volley. However, get in between there, and the ball will be coming right to your toes, too close for a shot off a bounce, and too far for a volley. Think of selling into support as "no man's land." It works sometimes, but more often than not, buyers will at least try to push it back up. You will often be caught with a short position a point or two above the low, and your stop of 2 to 3 points will be an easy target as they push it up about 4 points off the low. Sell far enough in advance of support, or sell when the support has been clearly violated, but not in between. That's just a general idea, and there are always exceptions. * If you are not already short and want to be, a good option is to just wait to see how the market responds at the low. Maybe there is a bounce off the low, and if it's weak, then you can sell it. * If the support is convincingly broken, and maybe even retested, it can be a good selling opportunity. * Have you considered that often the market searches for boundaries after the opening bell? It could be that the market intends to buy, but it must search just a bit lower for buyers. A 15 minute move down at the open does not mean you should always be looking to sell. Perhaps you should be buying support instead? All of these are just ideas. They are generalized and meant to be. Ask yourself, "what is the intention of the market?" Not "which way is the market going?" It most always needs to move down, if it really wants to be up, and vice versa.

Excellent article and thanks for posting the link. Should note, however, that it is only referring to the actual eight FOMC announcements periods, not meeting minutes days like today.

For starters, read "Mind Over Markets."

Just checking here every so often, and good to see we still think alike N ;-) Though the market is not plowing down right now as strongly as I would like it, I planned this same trade before bed last night (40-42 strong sell) and happy to see it playing out at the moment. Market may not make a decisive move until the FOMC minutes later this afternoon though.

Indeed, good point N. "Fade the noise" if you will.

The last post is a perfect example of how generic advice is either useless at best or harmful at worst. He posted the same thing here: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-markets/13178-tip-better-trading.html#post151480 and now is posting the exact same thing here when no one has even talked about forex. This is why you have to filter out the noise, Meh.

lol! :rofl:

I think Steve has hit the nail on the head regarding a general approach. Many posters here and elsewhere seem to want to get the goods without getting to know the girl first. Why not learn the general behavior of the market you trade, as steve recommends here, and then trade it accordingly? Develop a relationship with the girl first, and then you don't have to guess as much what works :-)

Meh, first rule is: don't just believe anything you read. Others will tell you what you need, like a full blown master trading plan, when they don't know your individual situation very well. Why not just open up some charts and observe for a while for starters?

His question was along the lines of "How does that guy make money?". I think a better question is "How can I make money?" There's a pretty obvious but fundamentally important difference I think.