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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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I get the impression that it has not worked for phoenix. In which case, perhaps sticking with what he knows will not help. Perhaps a fundamental shift in how he views the markets is in order. Just my Phoenix, why not post a chart as wrb suggested? It's a good starting point.
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Sounds reasonable...
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69.50? Why not 70.25?
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From the big gap up from last week to this week, the market has now tested last week's high, and found little interest in selling into that range. Do you think that may indicate a longer term conviction to the upside (by "longer term" I mean the next week or two)? This is obvious stuff I know, but I'm trying to be a bit methodical about this. Obviously we would need to trade up into yesterday's range first to really get serious about that. And if we don't right now, perhaps a further test of 63/64 will be needed.
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Zen fire has a good feed generally speaking, should be fine. Don't focus on just the time and sales. Just have it to the side, and refer to it if you feel you need to. Just staring at it without purpose will make you crazy. If something on your chart looks interesting, then look at the time and sales then. What is your "simple chart" of ES? Don't worry about volume at price for now IMO; if you need it later, add it. But don't muddy the waters further right now. By the way, today volume has been difficult for me to read, so sometimes it will be clear, others it won't. Should be a bit more normal in the coming weeks as holiday volume disappears. Give it some time.
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Open rejected twice ... not much conviction down, but not much up either, yet anyway.
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Meaning, it's not very decisive right?
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You mean that if the open is rejected, that range could be extended down?
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Agreed, quite lame... I'm finding the volume to be very difficult to read. Almost as if the market says, "let's just reverse here, or not, doesn't really matter" ... not much conviction, and hence not clear enough footprints for me to observe. Trends have been clear once they began (down after first half hour) but not much indication I can see regarding timing. EDIT: then again, I have been not very focused as I would like to today so far, so perhaps it's crystal clear, and my focus is off.
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Did you do this yet? : http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/e-mini-futures-trading-laboratory/11074-advice-day-trading-es-futures-4.html#post131797 Take a look at the Wyckoff forum section of this web site. Start there.
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SPX has hit this area, may see a decent bounce
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Yeah I have 52.50 as last week's close for a fill, but anywhere from say 52 to 54 would do it for me. As it tested 70.25, I fully expected a rejection, and then one more test, and that second test failure would be my trigger for a short. We never got that and now we are lazily down 7 points from there. I think I'm still a little out of sync from the holiday volume, though today almost feels like a holiday still with this activity. I would have entered short immediately but I got no good volume confirmation. So, I sit here and watch my idea work without me in it :missy: With the nature of this action right now I'm not sure we have the pressure to push all the way to 53, maybe only 60s. I have a zone marked from 59.50 to 60.75 but don't know why I marked it (I like to delete my profiles and such after marking the zone so I don't have to re-think why I marked it every time I look at it). But buyers still not really showing up much yet.
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The Secret to Better Fills, Less Slippage, and Fewer Stop Outs
joshdance replied to TimRacette's topic in Trading
Stop orders are held at the exchange, most any in the world I would think anyway. What good would a "protective stop" be if it were not held at the exchange? Here are the order types that CME uses, as one example: http://www.cmegroup.com/globex/files/GlobexRefGd.pdf -
Waiting to see how the market will react at yesterday's low (if we test it now)... opened below yesterday's range, selling strong into the close yesterday, close on the lows. If low holds as resistance, perhaps we are in for a gap fill down to the 50s, last week's close. Just my
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I would ditch the candlestick "signal" as the type of signal may vary greatly depending on what time (or other) frame you're watching. Generally, you would want to see pretty good participation (volume) in order to push the price higher or lower right? And, if it retraces, you would expect that it would not go very far back into the range it just broke out of, if buyers or sellers are serious about taking it OUT of that range, right? And, if it retraces, you would probably want to see progressively decreasing interest (volume) as it retraces further and further, right?
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Very interesting........
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Yeah 6.75 range... blah. I did take what I think was an A+ long, 77.25, at VWAP / prior R / 50% ... held onto it hoping it would break the 80 and blow some stops, but I got out for 1 tick after it failed near the high... not much conviction for the bulls. My calendar shows 2:15 .. yours different?
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Hope you had a happy new year N .. welcome back and good trading in 2012!
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What a waste of server space this thread is. :doh:
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This is my point exactly. Watching order flow means watching the "flow of orders"... but you have no access to orders or even transactions in spot forex. There's no way around this; it has nothing to do with the size of candles, global sessions, or anything that you mentioned. It means studying transactions as they occur, whether that's by watching executions on the tape (which you don't have in forex), or a consolidated version of the tape such as delta volume (which you don't have), or volume at price / profile (which you don't have), or even volume over a period of time (which you don't have), or something else related to transactions (which you cannot see). All you have in forex is price. You have the last traded price, and the inside bid and offer. Even those will vary depending on the bank or broker who quotes it to you. Imagine the last traded price is 1.2900. The inside bid is 1.2899, and the inside offer is 1.2900. 500 lots are bought at 1.2900, where there is a big seller sitting with 1000 lots. You have no idea this just happened, because the last traded price did not change. This is the kind of information available on a real exchange, where at least the manipulation that takes place is visible and out in the open. This is the type of information that is visible clearly for the world to see on the time and sales, which you do not have. So, you can NOT read order flow in spot forex. You are doing something, but it's not related to order flow, because you have no access to orders or executions.
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You're trading forex, and you have no access to volume, much less orders. You are not trading "order flow." Trading order flow requires you to be able to see executions, or the volume resulting from those executions. You have access to neither. That's what happens when you get your trading advice from youtube.
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Please tell me, how do you use "order flow" when you can't see the orders?
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I have also tried GMMAs in the past; hope it works for you.
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What is the basic concept of the methodology you are trying to trade, and on what market? What days were you live?
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Possibilities: 1) You traded differently because it was real money 2) The market was different enough during the period you were live that it proved your system only works in certain environments 3) When trading live you get actual slippage, bad fills, and all the other crap that makes trading with real money difficult