joshdance

I got short 84.50 about 20 mins ago, looking for retest of the low, or new lows would be even better (78)

Thanks, I get my abbreviations confused sometimes

I can't remember all the details, but basically we sold off methodically, then found good support, then a nice push back up. 84 was somewhere near the 50% and I liked what I saw, my premise was a push up to 90s, IIRC.

Sorry you were distracted! What is "OTD" on your chart?

I bought early -- the real volume confirmation was on the drop to 82 .. I was just a bit early, but good volume support even at 84.

I was down -0.75 at the end of the day .. tried an early short that did not work out, and I bought 84s but did not get much out of it...

Thanks N -- hope your trading so far this year has been what you expect! These low ranges have me bored out of my mind, but the moves themselves have for the most part been pretty well behaved. Thanks for the chart buddy, hope your day is grand!

Maybe if you've been only paper trading for a few months, then starting off with 1 contract is a good idea. Volatility can be good but with you new to trading or trading a new contract at least, you should be thankful for the calmness of the market right now. The volatility can make you money, but it can bite your ass in a hurry when real money is on the line. I have been trading 1 contract this year and have made money so far; it certainly is possible. It is boring, yes, but patience can pay off.

I like the idea of thinking of the market in those terms; however, due to the impossible (IMO) nature of determining the actual motive of the buying or selling, all I really care about is that volume supported a direction of the market. Volume entered strongly twice and supported the long direction, and that is objective; when I start trying to think about motive, it adds an unnecessary layer for me of psychology. Yes, psychology is the ultimate driving force behind what any trader does, yet, there are too many complex factors and too many possible motives for me to make sense of it. Just look at commentary from economists and you'll hear so many different opinions that it boggles the mind; so, I like to steer clear of the "why" when it comes to why someone bought or sold because I can't know.

I was thinking about this thread today as the day went along and thought I would post this. As I said before, it is impossible to accurately "track" anyone in the market; yet, big traders do leave big footprints sometimes, and I believe by looking at the footprints it's possible to determine when big traders are active. The thing is, often big traders are taking counter positions to other big traders; so, it's not that they are big and therefore are right. Rather, it's that they are involved in the market, and we get to see their involvement and then make our own decisions about what to do with that information. The attached chart shows two black arrows indicating what I think is clearly professional activity. You don't get 20K contracts of ES traded in 1 minute without professional involvement, sorry. I have no objective or empirical evidence to support this; but isn't it logical? This isn't retail traders trading with other retail traders; at least one side of this trading involves someone with serious money. I was already long from 84 when the first big volume entered, and almost was shaken out but I held on and closed slightly higher a few minutes later. But that big professional involvement kept me in the trade. There are about 15K buy limit orders filled in only one minute, over only about a 1.5 point range. The message is clear to me: someone wants to prevent this market from going down. The second black bar shows 16K contracts traded, again, over about a 1 point range. Message is loud and clear again: big buyers abundant and ready to support 83/84. Now, look towards the end of the chart, at the blue line. From 14:50 to about 15:20, a good half hour, you see a total of about 37K contracts traded. This is NOT professional activity. But, price is rising. What does that tell me? Well, I do not want to fade this market, since buyers were active as pointed out earlier. However, I am not interested in establishing some kind of long position here. What happens next is IMO the very opposite of professional activity, at the red arrow: 10-20K contracts bought 30 minutes before the close, looking for new highs, on a day with a previously 7 point range, in a market which has been incredibly in balance since the first trading day of January. This looks to me like lots of amateur traders jumping on the bandwagon very late in the game. This is really only confirmed by the lack of followthrough around 15 minutes before the close, I should note. But you have very late buying, following a push up that was NOT well supported, with no follow through. So, both cases feature decent enough volume. However, one is buying the lows, and indicates big players; the other is buying the highs at the most inopportune time, and smells like typical retail activity; probably buying into the limit orders of those who got long in the low 80s earlier in the day. Given the lack of what I feel is quality buying at the top, I would expect to see 82-84 before we see 90 (and I did post this at 4pm on another forum before it has now dropped to 86 in globex). Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm not, but it's a working theory and does play out in real time quite often. EDIT: one last thing I should point out is that this was a very neutral day. I could see big players on both sides of the market. Big time sellers defended yesterday's close and low about 15 minutes after the open, and at 10:40 you can see it defended again, lots of professional involvement there. All the more reason to NOT buy the high (hoping for a big trade anyway) near the end of the day, and rather get positioned earlier or stay out. So, while there were pros very interested in buying this market, they were also selling the highs, at least earlier in the day. Not a day to hope for a 20 point breakout, that's for sure. These are just my thoughts, would love to hear your feedback. Only my and like anything else, you may find your view of the market to be different. But it works for me, and we all have to find a model that sings to us. See what conclusions you draw...

Liking this 5 point range after the 15 point globex move N?

What a way to ruin a perfectly good thread started by Negotiator by such BS. Thanks anyway N, for trying.

What do you hope to accomplish by "tracking" large participants? When you see volume trade high in a market, you can be sure that this is a large participant (or large participants), and these are his (or their) footprints. However, if you're hoping to "track" by knowing what his position is, what he intends to do next, etc., you are wasting your time. Particularly in currency futures, when you are really interested in FX. The agenda of the multi-million dollar trader is often very different from the agenda of the retail trader; perhaps he is taking a very large position in futures simply to hedge an even larger position on the spot market or another contract; would you want to do what he does then? (no is probably the answer) No one knows, and anyone who answers affirmatively to the above question you asked is either selling something, or delusional. Just my

Nice job. Just so you know, people on forums tend to be doubtful of people who claim wins that are either large or very consistent, whether it be reality or not. Particularly when they are coming from traders who are new. So, when you post your nice gains, it will be generally accepted as truth if you post your trades when you take them. I know this can be distracting and I don't really care one way or the other, just saying that if you're going to post profit day after day, after a while few people will believe it unless you actually post what you're trading when you trade it, since anyone can just say they made a profit, even if they didn't really trade. I do post my trades on another forum, but it can be a bit distracting sometimes, and if it distracts you by all means don't do it. Just be prepared to be ridiculed if you post your profit without posting how you did it.

I wish you the best in your trading for 2012. I am hoping for your sake that you did not have a case of beginner's luck this week. I don't know what stocks you watch, but the equities markets as a whole were very kind this week, FWIW. Not really any surprises, nothing too tricky, just balanced, range-bound movement and quite friendly. If it felt "almost too easy," take my warning now and know that it was, and that it will not be this way every week. I would strongly suggest that you limit your max losses to around 30K, in your situation. Since you have a family and have worked hard for your savings, it would be a shame to lose more than that. Remember, you can always simulation trade. Realize that it takes most traders a very long time to really get it, and one week isn't a very long time. I hope very much that you will be highly exception and not really lose money, but since you have not traded before, I am concerned that you are putting $100K into a game you do not yet understand. Best of skill and success to you in the coming weeks, please keep us posted!

Bingo. Being undercapitalized is only really relevant if you are maxing out leverage or taking on more risk than necessary. If you can't make $100 with $25K, then adding another $75K or $1M won't help. Knowing how to trade comes first.

Took only a little out today N, how was your day? Talk about a market in balance, this is the weekly:

2 months ago (your first post of 4 total) you had not even used a futures trading platform, and now your life is changed?

OK let's get clear here and get the facts straight. The answer to where a stop order (or "stop market order") resides depends on two things: the broker and the exchange. In my case, my stop order does reside at the CME exchange. I can verify this by looking at the order info in my platform, and verify that it is at the exchange. If you need some proof of that let me know and I will send a screen shot. Also, I called my broker (Velocity) to verify and yes, the orders are at CME, not the broker servers. Some exchanges may not even allow stop market orders (theoretically). If you wanted this functionality then, the broker could offer to simulate a stop market order for you. A more common scenario is an exchange that does not offer OCO orders (CME is one example). In this case, either the broker could simulate the order (such as TD ameritrade), or more commonly, the local PC simulates the order. However, the Eurex exchange natively supports OCO ( Eurex - One-Cancels-the-Other (OCO) Order ). So, hopefully it's clear that if the order type is not supported by the exchange, it must be simulated by the broker, or locally (or by some piece of software between you and the broker). CME Globex has no notion of a true "stop market" order. Instead, they have what they call a "stop with protection" order ( http://www.cmegroup.com/globex/files/GlobexRefGd.pdf ). It's much safer, and ensures that you do not get completely screwed due to a catastrophic event. When you enter a stop order with CME globex, they convert it into a Stop Limit order. The limit price will be the trigger price for the order plus half of what's called the "no bust range" ( Globex No Bust Ranges ) or "non reviewable range" ( TRADE CANCELLATIONS AND PRICE ADJUSTMENTS ). For ES, for example, it's 6 points, thus, the trade may be cancelled if you are slipped 3 ES points. For CL, 50% of the range is 50 ticks. And so on. Here is more information on this process: Question regarding how NT handles stop market orders on Globex - NinjaTrader Support Forum So, it appears that IB simulates stop orders ( http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/usFuturesStopOrder.php ) and holds the orders on their servers. Why they do this, I do not know. At some point when the order is given to CME, it will be assigned as a stop limit with a 50% no bust range limit anyway, so I don't see the point in simulating the order on their server. If anyone uses NT and wants to see based on the broker where their order resides, here's a document: http://www.ninjatrader.com/support/forum/showthread.php?t=5349 I hope this clarifies things.

If we look at volume for what it objectively is, participation, I think it removes the need to assign motive (need, conviction, etc.). There may be little participation in a move up, but unless the other side actively participates more, it can continue to drift up or down, for example.

I mentioned it several times in another forum does that count? :-) Actually yes I did notice that N, 7 ticks above IBH, compared with 6 ticks below IBL. That was the premise for my short idea, which I am not in btw.

Actually 72 is yesterday's close (settlement) .. I did not notice anything else, what's up?

What is the impact of this information for you, or is this more of just a casual note?

IB high keeps holding, if it breaks down, and peeks back up close to 71, I will look to short this if I see what I want to see in the volume. Only 7 tick range extension up; not convincing and as you said, good potential for a neutral day. If that's the case, perhaps a move back to at least the mid 60s will be in order.

Can you name a broker who does not put the order at the exchange? Not doubting that it's true, just would like to know any. As for locally held orders, a negative stop limit order, for example, is simulated on my PC, though a regular stop limit goes to CME. OCO orders are simulated locally for me as well, but both orders are actually at the exchange, and only the cancellation of the order not executed is done locally. So yes, some may be done locally, but a regular stop order is always non-local, otherwise, it would not serve its purpose.