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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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You can easily prove that all market participants disagree on value while agreeing on price? That's one heck of a poll you're going to take! j/k ;-)
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Be wary of anyone in the trading business selling ANYthing, especially a sucker's web site like the one in question here. Please, save the money and give it to the market instead and at least you'll get some real experience.
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If you're really a trend follower, shouldn't you know that this goes against the very nature of following the trend? You can't enter at the starting point of a trend if you're a trend follower, because it hasn't started yet. Trend followers are not trend starters. In fact, when a bull trend begins (and cannot be identified as a bull trend yet), trend followers will typically still be short. This also goes against trend following. Long term trend traders almost always give back at least 20% of profits because they don't know when the trend will end.
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Looking for a short N ...
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Yeah, tough market today in that it's semi-directional, but not strongly enough to move stops so quickly I suppose. Here's the chart so far, you can see it ticked down to 04.50 and got me at BE at 5.00 ... seems to me that we may have just had an order flow shift to short here at 10:57am, but I'm being a little predictive and just feel, not so objectively based yet.
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Don't get me wrong, I still wish I were long from 05.. but this sucker isn't exactly freight-training. But, still in bullish order flow at this moment.
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You mean just now, from 04.50? Looks like we have both been hosed by stopouts and quick moves in our favor today... quite frustrating to say the least but what can you do?
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It shows it as a low impact event, so I don't pay much attention to it.. I'm out 05 flat... just wouldn't break 06.75
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I got out flat at 05 just now guys, after it failed to break 06.75 twice ... will look to see what happens next and try to go with the flow!
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Well, after pushing to 01.50, the market changed to long mode about 15 mins after the open. It broke up into yesterday's range, breaking above 05. I bought 05 on the pullback to it, and now it's consolidating, fighting over this range. Hopefully it will break back up, and I will be looking for 10.50 or so given the last picture posted above. I am willing to lose a point here to find out if I'm on the right side or not. We'll know soon whether the activity earlier was acceptance or not
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Forex Factory -- they usually have everything, and I didn't find another calendar with anything else on it at that time either.. oh well
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Well, it broke through into yday's range. I bought 05 on the pullback, now hoping for 10.50 if it will go.. I will be out at 04
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I don't see it on my calendar :-(
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10am news you mean? It's just Richmond Man. Index, should not move the market at all
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Order flow switched to long, but now attracting more sellers near 04/05 .. could go either way right now. I do not detect that sellers have taken this back over yet, and if they don't aggressively take this below the low, we could have a nice rebound above 05 into yday's range.
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The overnight action in the ES is a good case relevant to this discussion. We have basically selling, and more selling. You can see the delta (top pane of second picture) is very net short. And the profile (navy/purple) for the overnight session is very positively skewed (meaning the bulk of the volume is towards the bottom). And the gray profile picture shows the area of support at 1305 breached with volume starting to build below it. The market will likely open around yesterday's low or lower, about 6 points below yesterday's close and yesterday's open. What does this mean? Is value being established below the 1305 support? Will it punch back above? Or does this heavy concentration of activity in this 5 point range indicate that a move up is imminent? Well, for me at this moment, 9:12am, I would not want to be long in this area. The general order flow and sentiment is clearly short, and I would not want to be fighting that. However, it can change in a heartbeat, and we must be alert for that. There is obviously no answer to "what happens next" but if we wait and see, monitor the sentiment of the market, we can have a good idea. But I think based on the fact that we are trading where we are, at the open we will find more sellers, and we must be ready to be with whoever is in control at the moment!
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If possible, maybe we can take that question to the Price Acceptance / Value thread if you don't mind Steve said earlier that it's not, to him, a question of "value"...
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Yes steve, it does make sense; but with regard to the yearly open, are you congratulating your former associates on hitting the yearly open because they bought at the beginning of the year, held through the year, and came out slightly ahead because the year closed positive? That seems to be your statement but perhaps I'm not understanding you correctly. When you say "hit their target", what do you mean exactly? Like, their goal is to buy or sell the opening of some period (day, week, quarter), and then make sure the position is profitable at the end of that period?
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Though there was something I'm not clear on steve that you did not address in my last post -- why do you care about the PRIOR day's open? Since Friday's open, we have had Friday's close, we have had the Sunday globex open, and the Monday morning RTH open... what's so special about 9:30am Friday at this point?
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How ironic, I took the exact same trade at 08.25, got out 11.50, scalped another tick or two on this push up. Oh, because I respect those who verify they actually took trades, here is my proof, posted another thread elsewhere.
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Steve, on another thread I started there is a discussion of MP and value. A discussion arose regarding the opening price of a period as being a measure of value. In your example above of the weekly open, are you using the Sunday globex open (today at 1307.50 ES for example) as your price, or do you consider the Monday morning 9:30am EST equities open as your weekly open? And whatever your answer is, why one over the other? Also, in a post above you referenced the prior day's open. So on Friday, you said that the market took out Thursday's open. Why do you feel that Thursday's open has any significance on Friday afternoon, given that we have had a Thursday close, and a Friday open?
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Actually ST, as I think about this a little more before heading off to bed, perhaps I might state it this way: as far as regular trading hours (9:30 - 4:00 or 4:15 for futures) goes, the opening price at 9:30am is significant only in its relation to the prior closing price (not the prior opening price). And the closing price at 4:00 (or 4:15 for futures) is only significant in relation to the morning's opening price (not the prior close). This gives us a metric for determining how traders in the Asian and European markets saw value as we consider the open in relation to yesterday's close, and at the end of the US session, we can glean whether the US market saw value increase or decrease: a close higher or lower than the morning open. This is kind of rough, and again, given the continuum of markets and varying of times of economic releases, it's not so exact, but perhaps this is a good working model for establishing value. Love to hear your thoughts.
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I see your perspective. But in the global market we trade, don't you think that the open, as defined by the equities open at 9:30am ET, can be manipulated just as much as the close? I mean, how hard is it to push the indexes around at 9:00 or 9:15? Pretty easy for those with the desire to do so, IMO. The only true "open" IMO is the Sunday globex open, when you consider that there's actually a significant trading halt of 48 hours. And even then, those who put in the orders can create the open to be wherever they want, as the matching algo of the open at the exchange will pretty much create the opening tick where the most volume will be traded. So given that manipulation is easy to achieve, we must consider manipulation as something that exists, but not be concerned with "true value" or "real value" but rather just consider what is, IMO. The open is no less prone to being "altered" than anything else in my view. Would love to hear your view, whether agreement or dissenting. Thanks to all by the way for a lively discussion here!
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Good one. I typically think of the closing price of the regular session as important, and then in the morning when the regular session begins I evaluate the opening price in relation to the prior close (high, and low, etc.). I suppose I did not really think of the opening price itself as a measure of value. But, it is marked on my chart at the 9:30am equities open so I do find it very important. I would like to hear your thoughts on why you feel it is THE most important price (and if you consider it the most important measure of value); some examples of openings and how you view them would be a very valuable contribution to our discussion.
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"UI" => "user interface" Perhaps I will simply pick the top 10 or 20 S&P stocks and scan for those at the start of the week. I'm not overly familiar with individual stocks as I also only trade index futures, namely ES.
