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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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Because I already had a long bias, I am itching to be long a little bit, but don't want to be impatient. I will look to buy 09.75 now, but so far buyers willing to pay higher so I don't know if I will get it. I'm open to the possibility that this is just one of those opening 30 minute reaches in one direction, and then a slam back down. But so far, sellers have not really shown up much.
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Could be, but it looks to me like typical 3:59-4:00 end of day volume just concentrated at that one price.
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Pretty strong buying off the open gentlemen. Tried to buy but 4 straight points up with only a 1.5 point retrace.
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Well, the first trading day of the year was 1/3, Tuesday, was the big gap up from 12/30. So, starting the profile there.
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Here you go .................
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Possible content of this company's HFT seminar: "HFT exists; programs exist designed by very smart people paid hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars to hide their activity, located at the exchange to remove any latency whatsoever and to ensure that they get to do their business before you ever see a quote; unless you do the same you cannot engage in this activity, but we thought you would like to know!" ;-)
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You're not reading quite clearly what I wrote: the poster I responded to was wondering whether one market always led the other. This is the impossibility that cannot exist. What does exist, and what I think you refer to, is arbitrage between correlated markets. This is exploitable by those with the technology and geographic location to do so. So two correlated markets can move in sync, but one will not always lead the other -- they will "switch" or "flip flop".
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Tom I also think this is a reasonable approach, to build the profiles based on overlapping areas. But time is very important to the market. I've heard rationales over and over for how volume moves price, not time, and all of that. But the fact is that humans live in a world dictated by time, and the market opens and closes based on time as well. And just like anything whose bounds are defined by time (as the markets are), there will be times which are more important and have more activity to the market in general. I know you're not countering this, just a thought on time.
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Finally, officially have a vpoc shift for the year to 1308. Now I can rest easy! (j/k)
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I will still consider the scenario I wrote above, and will even look to buy around 1303-1305. I still think that longer term the trend is obviously up, but if we start breaking that area, and start making new weekly lows below 1301, then I will be looking for shorts. The market was only able to muster 1319s overnight, and is banging on the door of yesterday's lows. On the 2.8% GDP number vs. expected 3.0%, it sold off pretty well, despite this being a relatively small discrepancy. It's like they are looking for reasons to sell, instead of buy. This to me is very important. In other words, the market feels pretty weak, so I will look to short if it stays that way, BUT I will be aware of the 1303-1305 area as well and will consider a long there.
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Don't know if you held this for 3 hours, but if so, you got a nice return, good job! I was also keenly watching this level near the end of yesterday's selloff, but the action didn't really turn bullish till just after 3:30pm ET.
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Well if it goes 3 or 4 points below a vpoc on a large scale like this and then bounces back with the conviction it did, I count that as a "test" even though it traded through it. What was important was that the balance formed was tested, so the "zone" was tested, and rejected. We have a very similar zone now for the last couple of weeks -- 1305 to 1311 or so, and 1308 is a nice midpoint and only a few hundred contracts from being vpoc of the year, so close enough.
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On 1/13 it bottomed at 72s, and then popped back up, and tested 75s before coming back up. This is the test I was referring to in the chart.
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Did you see my post yesterday, #1030, regarding 1308? That's what the chart was regarding. I was actually technically wrong, I forgot to include first few bars of year globex, so technically no vpoc shift for year to 1308, but same idea.
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If one market always led, there would be an always-present exploitable edge (trade the lagging market based on the leading market), which the market does not allow, at least not for very long at all.
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Ditto, but would not feel comfortable shorting this right now either. Buyers clearly interested.
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Agree in principle that skilled occupations take time and training to learn. But funny that you mention driving. I can guarantee you that most people simply cannot be trained to be a race car driver. From the first moment I got into a car, I have just known how to drive; at least, after the initial newness of it kind of sunk in, maybe a month or so. I have always driven manual trannys, and have always taken an aggressive approach to driving. I'm no race car driver and would need to be trained as such. But I am intuitively a good driver. Much more so than other stuff I have tried. So, I think it's possible that some people simply are more naturally attuned to certain activities. Doesn't mean we don't need some kind of training, of course.
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One scenario.........
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Agree N -- I know that we can never know why the market really does anything, because there are an infinite number of possibilities and directions it may take. I just want to be sure that I'm not taking a "buy at XYZ line" approach. I realize that's not what anyone is saying to do, and that it's simply a potential area to watch . So, I will watch, and act accordingly.
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On a purely market note, quite bearish that the market sells off overnight on euro worries (that's the story anyway mmm hmm), despite a huge rip up thank to aapl. And bullish that the 05 zone is holding relatively well so far, despite quite poor housing numbers.
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I also plotted the 1303.50 as well steve and was watching it on my chart and noticed the reaction. Interestingly as well, 1307.50 is the Sunday globex open, where sellers just stepped in, for any number of reasons perhaps, but still interesting. From a logical perspective, I like to know why things happen, if it's possible to know why. From the standpoint of "why" someone would pay attention to yesterday's open, do you have an idea? If it's just a case of "it is what it is," then I can accept that as a trader, but for an actual trading idea I like to have a reason, rather than just "it bounced at the POC" or "it stopped at yesterday's open". See what I mean?
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Look at the globex volume up until the open. Plot it against a 20 or 30 day median, and see where it is in relation to it at the open. Look at the globex range. Look at the volume on the first two or three minutes of the RTH session-- do a statistical analysis (don't be scared) and see if there is a correlation between any of these things (globex range, globex volume, first three minutes volume of pit session) and the range of the RTH session. I have no idea if there is, but my gut says there is some, but again, not too hard to run an analysis on this with the right software. Ultimately the market should say where your stop should be initially, and it will incidentally be higher or lower depending on the volatility. For example, if the prior low that you feel price should not reach is 1.5 points down, a 2 point stop will do. If it's 3 points away and you really think that's where it should be, you'll have to either risk more, or pass on the trade. Same for targets. Where do you think it will go given the current behavior of the market; look at today's ES for example. I took a trade whose target was 1311.00 (I was stopped BE early on) because I based that target on the chart, AND given the low volume, I felt it was reasonable; I should not hope for 30 points on a day like today, for example.
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And the result of today is that the market painfully meandered all the way up to a high of 1311.00 ... but I can honestly say I would not have held that long. First arrow in chart was beginning area of the trade. The target of 11 was based on the fact that 1311.00 is yesterday's close, as well as just below last week's high and close. Monday's RTH open is 10.75.
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Why not consider how large the range is on the first hour of trading, along with using a relative volume study that tells you whether we are above or below average or median? It's not perfect but it will keep your expectations realistic perhaps.
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How ironic that I was thinking how much this market stinks today, and then I get an email for this thread! :-)
