Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.
joshdance
-
Content Count
1793 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Everything posted by joshdance
-
Thanks Tams for posting, but a little pet peeve-- it's really appropriate to start a post like this with: "From Themis Trading and written by ... :" It makes it look like YOU wrote the open letter, and unless someone clicks the link they would never know.
-
Indeed, compare this delta to other days which trend strongly ...
-
I plot the volume throughout the day (can't take the credit, got the idea elsewhere) compared with the 20 day median. It kept pace earlier due to payroll excitement, but for a while now has been drifting and diverging. In other words, I would not expect much else from today. Anything can happen but I don't need to say that right?
-
Hope everyone's weekend was great -- this week I've decided no forums for me, reading or posting. Just want to concentrate on the markets, and be in my little bubble. I'll check in on Friday after the close; good luck to all and hope it's a great week for you!
-
Moderators, could you possibly edit this user's post to reflect the accurate information, which is a ONE TIME fee of $50? I hate to see people post inaccurate information and not care enough to correct it.
-
I intended to post the following on this thread earlier, but I only posted it in N's Eminis thread on Wednesday (1/25) after market close ( http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/e-mini-futures-trading-laboratory/9773-day-trading-e-mini-futures-52.html#post137305 ). I'll attach the chart here that shows us the view at that time. The premise was that perhaps after developing value for so long (about 5 days) in such a tight range (about 7 handles, give or take), and then moving north of that, that the market would return to test the real willingness of buyers to truly accept that as higher value than the year's prior established area of value (1270s). After all, the market moved up on fed news anyway, and did so in a sort of a panic buying frenzy, which sometimes must be retraced to see if it's for real. And the market did not disappoint -- buyers strongly supported 1307 time and time again, despite the willingness of sellers to try to take it lower. 1307.50 was the sunday globex open, 1308 is the new VPOC for the year, and it's pretty much smack in the middle of the prior area of value. See the first chart for an example of how the market retested 1270s and found buyers. This time it's quite different though, compared with the earlier example in the 1270s. The buying off of the 1307 did not have nearly the conviction that it did earlier in January. The market just did not seem truly willing to pay up, and given how many times 07 held, and how important the 1305-1311 zone has been, if the market were truly super bullish, I would have expected it to buy, and buy fast, and buy heavy. But it didn't. So I'm a little cautious about the direction from here; bulls have the upper hand technically (just look at the year so far), however, the sentiment on Friday did not have the same bullish energy that I have seen recently. Lastly, I'm not a big delta volume watcher, but perhaps it's noteworthy that a retracement of 80% in price (1329 to 1307, from a low of 1302) only resulted in about a 50% retracement in delta volume.
-
This is true, they did defend it. And quite heavily so I might add. I wonder if they could withstand another round of selling though.
-
Based on what I'm seeing here, at least so far it does not seem that long term market participants are willing to take this higher. Maybe a late day rally will ensue, but this thing should have shot up like a rocket once 7s held twice, both times on substantial bids, and then broke 11s. Why do they hold 07s so fiercely, yet they won't pay up a few more points to take it up? I'm not sure, but the volume just isn't there yet to see the likes of 19s and 29s. They simply do not seem confident in the market enough to pay into it. That's the only explanation I can venture a guess at.
-
First HL made, on great volume, held twice. Would like to buy this and give it a try. Hope 08 is retested before it breaks 11, if it breaks 11 that is.
-
Steve, any thoughts on the Sunday globex open at 07.50? Since your 10.75 is significant as the Monday open, any significance for the Sunday open, given that this is a Friday and the time you are paying attention to the week's open?
-
Indeed -- the worst that can happen is that I take a loss, and look like a fool. If it's a stupid trade, then it's simply revealed that I traded like a fool, which is the reality. If it's a good trade but a loss, then I'll probably still be thought of as a fool or loser. If it's a good trade and a winner, then that will be seen too. Nothing to hide really; who cares right? We are all what we are, and whether we tell people or not, people know the truth, so might as well be a case study in either what to do or what not to do so that others can learn from good or bad decisions.
-
Just realized after my last comment that I did not explain the premise. The spx 5 minute chart shows yesterday's low, and us hitting that low twice since the open. This time it dipped below that low, ES showed a very nice surge of volume, which I want to see; then the key was that it closed back above yesterday's low within 3 or so minutes, and lots of green on the delta and tape showing buying interest. On top of that, per my earlier charts I was watching this 08 area, and looking for it to hold. I paid up a little at 10, but I was looking for it to break enough to run. It broke up nicely, but look at 11:17 - 11:19 volume, to see what I mean by lots of push, not enough result. Normally this may not be a big deal, but this is usually okay AFTER it has broken into new highs... you can expect faders, and they will often get run over because people are looking for the breakout to push. In this case, pretty heavy buying was being absorbed BELOW the prior low at 13.50, and that's when I exited.
-
Thanks cl -- I don't want this to be a "call your trades" thread as it's N's thread and he can dictate how he wants it run. But I find that explaining a premise in real time, executing a trade in real time, and then managing the trade in real time, is about 1000% harder than doing it on a past static chart, and for me 1000% more helpful when others do it, versus showing what they did an hour ago or a day ago. It's all helpful of course, but the hard part of trading is actually doing it, outside of hypotheticals.
-
Good point. The difference in the 1/13 retest and punch up at 72ish is that there was a very high demand, and it shot up like a rocket. I remember clearly seeing a 28-30K volume 1 minute bar as it bottomed out, with the delta being pretty well in the green. Here, we are simply building, and while this could easily bottom out here and go back up, the sellers have been making these lower highs and I think they want to dig for water a little deeper than this well can provide.
-
Yeah, this is not a market which is convinced and there's lots of fighting going on... if 08 holds though, and bulls start to get confident, watch out 1319.
-
Ah yes, I understand now. And agree about the VWAP. Failure to reach 12.50 or so here would mean a win for the shorts IMO, and will probably take it to 03-05.. just my opinion of course, but it's a bit of a tug of war at the moment.
-
Point of balance? ......
-
You might have a good one here... 08 needs to print for you though; but even so, they will probably sell 12 this time, so i guess we have to just wait and see who's stronger
-
Too much push with too little result for me at 12.75, so I got out 12 for +2 .. had much higher expectations and maybe it will still go, but three lower highs is not appealing.
-
bought 10, stop is 08.75, needs to go now, looking for 19s
-
Yeah, seems like maybe the 03-05 well might be going dry at this point...
-
That pretty much sums up the possibilities! :missy: I'm looking for 09 to hold .. if it does not, I think we see 1305 .. spx chart, there is no support below here until there really
-
I don't see the "well within balance" from last Thursday's to today's profile. Don't worry about a chart, but all I see is heavy volume up to 10.75 and then pretty light from there on up, and we are north of that at the moment.
-
gotcha -- looks to be rounding out a bit here, at yesterday's low, decent volume buildup edit: I bid 10 and was filled, and saw it pushing back to the lows, and bailed 09.50 ... looks now to possibly have resumed move up, wants to be in yesterday's range.. arg
-
You mean no interest in buying revised michigan number?
