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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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Market not really respecting today's profile... 38.50 is really top of the volume, and it's trampling that quite well. 35.75 to 38.25 is VA (whoa, 2.5 point range ) , and we have been in and out of that quite a bit. Thoughts?
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We are 91% of 20d median volume to this point, and at one time we were around 115%. Quite dead at this moment. 5.75 range, compared with 14.00 overnight.
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Wait, I think this is it: NAHB: Chairman Bernanke Speaks to Builders
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I can't find this online, do you have a link?
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Sorry CYP, I will take the blame for that as I was the one who initially replied to him. I won't post anymore on this thread and sorry to Rande for derailing it. Sounds good steve, thanks. -
Let's try a new approach steve -- how about, we give each other another chance; I'll forget and forgive your rude comments to me, and you forget and forgive my rude comments to you? Let's approach this like men, human beings, actually try to get along despite differences in our personalities? Kind of like starting over. How does that sound?
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1339.00 is last week's closing price, makes sense. Having trouble with today's open but knocking on the door again.
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Ah, I've heard much worse rants, and this one probably needed so no worries mate Michigan in 3.
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Awesome post, particularly this part. Thanks N.
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Princess? Your ego must be taking quite a blow to use such personal insults, that are in no way related to the conversation at hand. I have no doubt that some people bought because of what Bernanke said. But there are many reason why people can buy: price touches a moving average, time elapses without XYZ happening, a support level holds, etc. I still do not think Bernanke said anything that the market had not already taken into consideration, which is the main reason why someone would buy. Sure, people can buy if they like what someone says, but the rest of the market has already heard "old news" and Bernanke did not really say anything new that the market had not already priced in. Just my opinion of course. My point was that one might as well say, "the market hit the 5 minute 20EMA, and traders bought because of that." I think that's kind of ludicrous, but to each his own. I only said this: Good luck steve, and the invitation still stands for you to open a thread, or post in an existing one, an actual trade you take, when you take it. I think maybe once I've ever seen you post a chart of a trade that did not work for you, compared with at least a hundred or so charts of trades that you took several hours before that worked to perfection. A post of a chart showing a trade you take, in real time, would be refreshing, or even a chart showing a losing trade and how something didn't work would be helpful. But you have too much to lose to do that I'm afraid, as you have built yourself up too much, so you probably won't. But for someone who has never posted a chart of a losing trade and only posts winners, it's quite suspicious that you won't simply take that screen capture when you take the trade, instead of waiting an hour or two and then showing how obvious it was that it was going to work.
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I was wrong to doubt you steve; how foolish of this naive, village idiot to question the "professional" who posts the best hindsight charts on the forum. Keep them coming! If you ever grow a pair and decide to post even one live trade chart per, say, 10 hindsight ones, let me know and I'll join you in a thread for that very purpose. Until then, the BS-o-meter is off the charts for you, "professional."
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Thanks gosu... As for this market today, predictably choppy this afternoon, let's see if it offers any reasonable opportunities in the last 45 minutes.
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gosu, what's up with the chart? Any explanation or just a chart-by-chart market update? Just curious, keep posting them if you like but I keep expecting to see some explanation of your chart. Am interested as usual.
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The funny thing about trading "systems" (as you said ATMs), is that people are always trying to SELL them.... hmmm, seems a bit strange doesn't it? If I had an ATM, I wouldn't sell it...
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Regarding the 30% of the profile, my VAH is 46 right now, and there is something simply not right about that. I know the VA formula is well defined, but we are trading 50% more volume ABOVE the vpoc than below, so it seems not quite right at the moment. That's why I don't place much value (pun intended) into the normal definition of a "value area." Edit: which is why I do not place much weight into the POC of the distribution, more in the shape instead. Statistically speaking, the mode is very weak, and mean and median are much more robust, so that's why a calculation based on the location of the mode, like the VA, is largely prone to be, well, pretty useless, while something like the VWAP is smoothed.
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Yes I agree about easy $. It's a bit of a mish mash right now I'm afraid. Sellers should not have let 49.25 be penetrated if they want to sell, but buy volume was low up there, so they have a reason to sell. On the other hand, buyers have been strong and did penetrate above the open, and have held yday's high, so why would they not be buying still? This two-way possibility leads to rotation, balance, aka chop. That's my prediction for the next 2 hours but we will see.
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Easy to see a rotation down a bit from here, given this morning and the struggles at the opening price of 49.25 .. the question is, how far down? Given the time of day and volume really tapering off here, that question is harder for me to answer. But I would not expect it to travel much below 46.50 if we are not going to test 44 again. Preferably, we would see some nice activity at 47.50 here as it tests yesterday's high once again.
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This may have been the location Tom, but surely there's more to it... after all, you have a bullish sentiment, so there must be something that tells you to short. I saw a short here, but it was this: 46 broke, and could only muster 3 ticks to the prior resistance at 46.75, on 17K of volume over 60 seconds. In reality, there wasn't that much buying, max delta for that period was 7K, over 10K total volume. After that it was quite strong selling. So I expected buyers must be found lower, and 43/44 was a good 50% area to do that. I called this trade to a friend but was distracted and did not take it, and am kicking myself now. Other than that I have found today to be quite well structured, from the open. Perhaps I will do a video, but it will probably be tonight, to outline the structure I saw today. Back to topic, my point is this: you see volume build, but surely something else says "rotation down likely" .. perhaps it's just experience, repetition of pattern, etc., but the location alone should not really tell you direction -- correct me if I'm reading you wrong.
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Well, for those who can use it effectively I think that's what's important, and I applaud them for being able to do so. I use the profile in a rather limited way really, but still do find it as a useful map, AS LONG AS it doesn't dictate WHICH WAY I trade. If I see the market approaching a peak volume price, for example as it just did at 41.25, do I immediately try to reverse and go long? Preferably not. Rather, look at what the market is doing, wait for it to prove itself and show its hand, and THEN go. It's like buying at PRIOR support before it shows itself to be current support in any meaningful way. My profiles are today's, yesterday's, and any relevant to current market activity. So, I am profiling the area we have after 8:30am on Friday (post NFP) till now. For me personally, I find no relevance in the information that a back-adjusted futures contract shows that 50K contracts traded at price X, while only 40K traded at X+0.25, making the latter somehow more significant (different methods of back-adjusting, IMO, makes these past prices rather irrelevant, and certainly so when a very old profile is not built using tick data (which it's not as far as I know for anyone here, as the back-adjusted contract from IQFeed or another provider will only provide about 100 or so days of tick data). I also do not find profiling the 1400s or the 1200s to be useful for me right now, as I'm not taking any trades which I would ever look to those areas as a target. Others find this important, but I do not, but I also do not find many things important that others do, and I find many things important that others would never use. So, we go back to using tools that work best for us personally.
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The order flow has selloff written all over it IMO, but first we must break into yesterday's range .. will post more later on observations but that's my quick glance at it edit: 9:45am, bids held strong at 46.25, bulls ready to make a run? let's see here what happens
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Great post Tom, thanks for that. One of my largest challenges is to let go of needing to be right before taking a trade. I wrote a little narrative that I am reading every morning that reminds me that I am simply an educated guesser. Anyone who thinks they "know" has not checked his or her ego. There are plenty of people who think they control the markets on this forum, but they will sooner or later be humbled. A guess is all we have, based on some evidence we feel that will give us a higher probability at that moment of guessing correctly. I suppose I agree with "anticipating OTF activity" but again, I don't know if it's so much about anticipating it, but recognizing it when you see it. I mean, let's be honest: how many OTF sized traders are looking at a volume profile and see an obscure CLVN from 2007? Probably none. But you had your map, and you recognized the activity changing there, and took your long yesterday. I didn't have that profile, but I recognized the change in order flow and sentiment there (did not get a fill on my order though), and saw basically what you did. Could it have kept going down yesterday? Without a doubt, yes. But, in this case we guessed right, and you profited from it. Edit: Interestingly, I pulled up a twitter stream of a VERY well known (you know who) volume profile trader, and around 1pm he was saying that sellers still were in control. Apparently even good traders who use VP must be aware of the market's order flow and sentiment--perhaps in this case he focused too much on the profile, and not what the market was doing at that time? "No reason we can't succeed" -- I'll drink to that my friend. Good trading to you today.
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I could not parse this sentence clearly -- can you rephrase it?
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Is the market the guy holding the gun in your analogy?
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As usual, when your argument fails the test of common sense and logic, an answer like yours above is the sort I would expect.
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When it comes to a VPOC shift, it's already "shifted" in principle anyway. Doesn't matter if in RTH it's a few hundred contracts short. Obviously it's a logical shift even if technically it's not.