Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.
-
Content Count
1793 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Calendar
Articles
Everything posted by joshdance
-
Here's a long off the lows.. maybe I've been faked out.
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Will buy a solid bounce here. Otherwise, maybe some buyers at 47, but low 30s and 20s likely.
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
"Press the winners" ... Something I am working on improving. With time it is getting better overall, though I still have moments like this. I find it much easier to hold a trade that is developing slowly and with good structure, rather than one that drops 28 ticks in 2 minutes. I am very careful of protecting profit and managing losses on days like today, and that leads to overly careful behavior sometimes. By the way dB, you mentioned "clear the decks" -- I think I understand the meaning of the expression from its origin, but do you care to elaborate?
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
I will jump on the "bash goodoboy" bandwagon (j/k goodoboy). I used to also get absolutely slaughtered on days like today. But here's what happened: 1) the market dropped before the open 2) the market moved up to a logical area of prior supply/resistance 3) the market sold off from there, and is near lows again Structurally, days really don't get better than this. We have the 56-61 consolidation. Market broke up out of that. Showed its strength, pulled back to VWAP and top of 56-61 consolidation, and continued up. Consolidated, and fooled lots of people when it broke above yesterday's low. Double topped. Dropped, and is now channeling down. So goodoboy, if today was tough--and I remember when it was hella, crazy, punch my monitor tough--it's because of something on your end, and it's not anything on your charts. You sold too early in the day because you didn't want to miss out when the market had already dropped 25 handles. Then you bought near the high (despite my warning about the 69 ) but it was still a good buy as one more retest was a reasonable probability. Fortunately for you, it sounds like you actually may have made money. Negotiator mentioned earlier, and I mentioned above, the structure. But all of this is stuff that is plain to see on the chart, and you can see the same things. I think what good traders do well though, is that they know the behavior of the market they are trading, and the general psychology of the traders participating. No one wants to miss out, so many will short the open, but the market didn't really confirm a short did it? And then they get pissed off, and they jump on the long bandwagon just at the top--just look at the 10:27 volume, it's plain to see. So, fear of missing out, "what ifs", "if onlys" are all over this chart today. All we have to do is recognize that, not be one of those people, and then take advantage and we can make some money. Negotiator helped me greatly with some of this stuff, so listen to him.
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
I will fess up and admit my mistake: it sneaked up on me so fast that I closed prematurely. I knew Monti was about to speak. I suppose this goes against my "caught up in the euphoria" advice This is an easy stop trail down, and could have easily gotten double what I took. But, I was only in 1/2 on this and usually when that is the case, I will elect to close sooner rather than later. At any rate, room for improvement as always...
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Took this rather potentially risky short, and it popped so fast I just close dit at the vwap at 64. Good location, good timing, minimal risk. Attached is supporting chart with the zone highlighted I was waiting for, and resulting trade entry.
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Too late, and too early. Consider the behavior of the market since the open, and the initial quick test and jump off the lows. Has it been telling you to sell? One of the hardest things I have had to learn is to avoid the euphoria. The other hardest thing learned from much pain has been to avoid jumping on the train after the train lost momentum. Big news events like this make 9 out of 10 new traders want to sell, and for good reason. So, everyone wants to short, and where do you think the newbies load up on shorts? 60. So what happens? They get punished. Consider the long since the open. Great opportunity that I took a few minutes ago. Attached is chart that I posted real time elsewhere but posting it here for a location reference. Volume supported at 10am, and a shakeout to VWAP supported as well. I was a little off in my entry but still not bad. And now that 69 has been touched, and everyone is convinced it's going to be long all day long, be careful about buying. Maybe it's still a good buy, but pissed off shorts are wishing they had bought, and will start jumping on. Dangerous area to buy, better area to sell--but that's just based on the location.
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
I don't dislike you at all. But it sounds like a phrase that is usually said from a superior to an inferior. Then in the same paragraph you suggest collaboration but then immediately say 'but I'm busy right now so maybe later.' It sounds like an invitation, and before I even respond with my opinion about whether collaboration is even a good idea, you let me know that you're too busy right now. It's just kind of strange, that's all. It's not very easy to get me upset. Steve got me kind of upset once, but I got over it pretty quickly and we are practically best pals now I understand that you are not coming from where I think most people would assume you are when you say "you have potential." It's all good, consider it a non-issue, as long as we are clear.
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Thank you!!!!! :yes sir: :hmmmm:
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Neither the pivot point, nor the price in relation to the prior day's range have anything to do with "trend." They are important pieces of information (well, not the pivot, for me anyway), but it says nothing about the actual behavior of the current market. What if Monday closes near the high, and during the overnight market, it sells off to below Monday's low, and then peeks above Monday's low just before the open. You are bullish here because the market is above the low? That information is great for context, but you are looking for some kind of black and white method to determine if the trend is up or down, but it does not work that way. The overnight market can be a good indicator, but the market can be up overnight, followed by selling during much of the day session. In other words, use the context of the market, and its current behavior in that context. Ironically, the EMA is probably your best determinant of trend there, but a 50EMA on a 60 minute chart is not going to give you an intraday trend direction. It's too long of a time frame, with too slow of an EMA. Maybe for a multi-day swing position, but not for day trading. Either use a shorter time frame, or a smaller EMA, or better yet, don't use one at all.
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Remember that thing that you declared "real traders" never do--move their stop close to entry? Well, I also tried three times to short yesterday morning, and each time had a very small loss or very small gain. I finally caught it in 82s, and rode it down to 76s (where I then reversed long after a bit at 75.50--this trade was posted live, but not the short from the high). Perhaps instead of a larger stop, you should consider a smaller one. Just an idea, and not trying to be too snarky, but it's kind of ironic. Rule #1 for me is capital preservation, and wider stops are, for me, not the best way to accomplish this--reading the market and entering with enough precision, and being willing to jump back in if I'm a little early, is how I have done this. Taking a tiny loss and jumping in is ok for me--taking several large losses and jumping in each time is not.
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
I understand what you're saying. Regarding this quote above, I have shared numerous real time calls previously, and lately no one has paid particular attention when I have posted things real time so I just have no interest in doing so. I post many more trades real time in the BMT forum, in a particular thread there, but out of respect for TL won't post links, but you can go see two short trades I posted real time this morning from 56 and 55. I post probably 5 or 6 trades a week in real time on that thread, and often comment with analysis, for what little that may be worth. I find it difficult to post real time trades in more than one forum, so if you're really interested please check that thread out.
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Specialized tools aren't required for taking short term trades either. You can disagree with that, but I'm proof that on an intraday basis, one can compete and do well; if you want specifics on performance I can post those as well. My trades are a few minutes to a few hours. I'm not saying I'm always in tune with the market; a couple of recent days I had larger intraday drawdowns than I'm comfortable with, and today I found the market a bit challenge to get in sync with during the first hour. But I look at the order book, the tape, simple highs and lows, and volume as a function of time. Using these for the "now", and adding the occasional profile, but mostly price alone for market structure, I have what I need. Most people, particularly vendors, reject the notion that simple tools combined with intense amounts of work on one's self, can bring improved results and consistent success. But, it has worked for me.
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
And to be fully correct, the opposite is true as well: futures determine the value of the composite basket of stocks in the index. By the way, you may use "specialized tools" but one does not really need to. My tools are "normal" but very effective. Moreover, I very lightly use profiles these days but I still think that in the right hands they can be valuable. Just because you didn't have success in using them does not mean that they are useless.
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Well correct you were sir. My plan was to ride it to 37s, and then look to reverse long in that area. After 43s saw some absorption, it looked to me that 41 would finally be broken down, but no dice this time. At least it was a 1/2 position and a very small loss--those I can live with.
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
After it made it to 41.50 and then came back up, my gut said get out but I took my 5 tick loss anyway. Most important is that my risk was quantified and it's a tiny loss compared to the gains! I would still take the trade again, only this time I would probably bail earlier when the 43.25 was taken out.
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
So we had buyers at 41, but I think the REAL buyers will need to be fished out around 37-38. Short 43.
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Depends completely on the context of what the market is doing. The best, most explosive moves are the ones that never retrace much; if the market moves in your favor a certain degree (for me, this is about 3 points or so), it's foolish to let it come all the way back to your entry. If there was real demand and a real chance at the market continuing, it will usually not come back. Why would buyers pay up, if it keeps retracing back to my entry? Real demand (or supply) is evidenced by a swift movement in price. The market retracing to that point indicates, again usually, a lack of genuine demand or supply, and thus is not usually a trade I want to be in. Buyers paying up create the strong moves, and the best ones have little rotation.
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
The US market is the last in the world to close for the trading day, so when it closed down on Friday, and all the European mess reared its head again on Monday, it's not surprising that markets continued their downward drift which then turned into more of a plunge. Given that backdrop, and if you understand that the market is auctioning lower, looking for buyers, then it would not be prudent to buy before the open, knowing that the market will in all likelihood continue its search in the US session for buyers--and given the recent market behavior of the US market being much more bullish than the european and asian counterparts, a buy is not a bad idea. I do not think that 39 is a bad location to watch for -- it's the low of the Bernanke day, and buyers certainly showed demand there. But the problem is, there was just not a strong enough reaction there, and as mentioned before, the timing that it found support in that area was before the open, and it's just not a good time on a day like this. So in the first chart attached, note that the low of the day is the low from 7/13, the huge up day that took no prisoners. The second chart is a 60 minute showing the obvious demand and bullishness of that opening hour. So, 32 is a good place to look to buy, with the whole 30-32 zone being fair game in my book. Knowing that, you witness a good 3 point rotation off of that price. Then what the market does next is the key--notice how it meanders down (check this out on a 1 minute chart for reference)? Sure, it could have melted further, but you have a decent location, a reaction off that location, and what appears to be the sellers showing a lack of enthusiasm about taking this to new lows after what is now a 44 point high to low swing over the course of 3 days. So I bought a half position at 33 with a 3 tick stop, was out for -3 ticks, and bought again at 33.25 with a half, added at 34.25 to make it full, and then exited into the open. Location + read on the market + tiny risk = high probability trade (by the way, use oscillators only when the market is balanced and ranging--when it is trending, it will tell you oversold or overbought all day long)
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Do you still plan to post a comment on the overnight market steve?
-
It all sounds good, except that you really don't need 4-5 reasons. You just need one reason. If you have more than one reason, that can strengthen your conviction, and that may be even better. Often for the best trades though, you will have more than one reason to enter. But there's really no reason to require yourself to find 4 or 5--we can come up with all kinds of reasons to enter a trade but all that matters is whether our decision is in tune with the future direction of the market. For me personally, all I need is some kind of indication from the market of its intention. I don't need a location, although that certainly is preferable. People talk about "key levels" but the only level that is "key" is the one the market responds to. As I have gotten to know ES better, the areas I watch are often the areas that the market responds to, but sometimes it's not. No reason to pass on a good trade because you happen to have guessed wrong about where the market will react. And you're right about keeping it simple--you don't need fancy software, indicators, or any of that, but if that's your thing go for it too. It didn't take anything fancy to see why 1375 was important today, and to then act based on that information... looking into convoluted methodologies for answers is often an excuse that we subconsciously come up with to convince ourselves that it can't be as easy as it is, and it conveniently shifts the focus from us to the external, which is useful to our egos when we are struggling. That being said, I think there is something that can be learned from many different types of market methodologies, even ones that you don't specifically use.
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
To quote Ronin, this is a "low risk buy" at 71 here IMO... took it and looking for a bounce to 75 towards the close, if I'm lucky, if GOOG will comply Risking 4 for 16, good odds. EDIT: closed for a 2 tick loss, more fun than blackjack and cheaper
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Objectively, yes, just standard volume (per time). But as you see in my post, this was just one component of the trade. The others played just as important a role in the decision to sell. And it's not like it was guaranteed to work--it's just what was most likely, in my opinion, to happen, and it did this time; but next time, it might not. Most important was that risk was quantified. The trigger for me was simply that I did not see aggressive buying on the tape and DOM. There is no magic; just ask the question, "Are buyers hungry here, and willing to pay up? Or, might the market need to entice them by offering them a lower price?" It's that simple, I think. I can tell you are looking for the right tools to use, and that is important. But don't put the focus too much out there, because your success will come from within, not from something you can put on your chart. If you read back over this thread you will find numerous times where I posted many live trade calls; some of them were great, and other times you can read the anger and frustration in my text. Many times I have wanted to pick up my computer and throw it out the window. Some measure of struggle is the only path to success in this game, I think. We have all struggled and everyone does at some time or another, just stay in the game and manage your risk. And listen to TheNegotiator, he knows what he is talking about.
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
I will drink to that. Today the action was beautiful-- sell 75s, buy 67s, stay out of the middle (for the most part). Trading near the open, symmetric profile, flat VWAP--nah, don't feel like playing the lottery in the middle here.
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Nice short Predictor. I also offered 73.75 but no fill on the touch, so I hit 73 instead and am flat now at 68 -- after catching the market near the low but failing to add and capitalize on most of the move up, I am very appreciative that the market rotated back down to the 67. Just to be clear, the premise was: 1) The move down off highs to 71 saw very little real buying interest (volume) 2) The tape showed no real urgency for buyers at the 73s. 3) 73s are 50% from 76 to 71 4) 73.75 is the morning (pre-news) high 5) Risk is quantified here; stop was at 74.50, 4 ticks. The push from 74 to 76 was excess (to use MP-speak), and a move above 74 would have invalidated the excess, and a revisit of 75 or 76 at least was in order. Hard to not take this trade when the risk is 4 ticks, and the targets are 12 and 20 ticks. (screen shot is before the final target was reached)
- 6289 replies
-
- e-mini futures
- intraday trading
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with: