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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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Didn't close the gap as you mentioned, and on quite heavy selling as well. N, are you running IRT C1 yet? If so, what does your profile show for the total volume (RTH or ETH doesn't matter)? Mine is way underreporting volume, says 700K when it's actually 1.1M .. I emailed Chad but curious as to what yours says.
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Type of day, and relative volume give me an idea of what I can reasonably expect from the market. Yesterday, for example, it was clear to me that there was a high probability we would stay within the prior day's range, and even higher confirmation around lunchtime of this. I had a long on, and was content with closing it, feeling very sure that it would not be a breakout and run type of day. We never know these things, but these are my main two metrics. I am sure you are familiar with at least the day type, Tom, from your style of trading.
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I for one also traded mainly based on the news Friday, and perhaps was lucky but it paid off well. My short basis was 66.50, not quite the 68 I would have liked to have had. But I also exited most at 63s as it became clear that a massive selloff would not happen. It may be guessing, but all of it is guessing. I just couldn't see new highs with Greece looming in the background, and delta volume as well as TICK steadily declining throughout the whole consolidation, indicating the market's anticipation of it as well, I think. My news service announced the CDS trigger around 2:30 I think, and then by 2:45 it seems that most news services were picking it up more strongly, and they said it was being discussed on CNBC, and about that time the rest of the selling came in strong.
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Very nice. I have tried to view a PnF chart and do not like it so far, but I will not write it off yet. I see the intention of the charting method, but don't see the market's intent much clearer than what I normally watch.
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Bingo. I have never gotten into P&F charts but am going to use this an example to learn some new things. I have two settings: a box size and reversal size. For the ES, what settings should I use to start with in my quest here motorway? Sorry, I'm just not familiar with the terminology of what "1 box reversal" is.
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Actually you lost me here phantom -- I don't see how price can be "true" or "false." Possibly, but after further thinking, if we measure significance by how many traders (or the potential trading volume of such traders) view a specific time frame, then perhaps we could say that one is more significant than another. If 50% of all market participants watched exactly the same chart, then it would be more significant than any other, assuming that those who watched it used its bar closes in making trading decisions. Let me fix that: "we are going to have to make a decision, and are going to have to enter the market at some price." For example, those who do not trade with bars, and who have no concept of a "bar," do not need such a bar to make a choice on when to enter the market. They must, however, enter at some price, of course. This goes along with the intent of this thread. Agree, and thank you for your contributions and opinions, they are appreciated and valued!
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This is a very good paragraph. The VPOC is simply the mode in the distribution of volume weighted prices. As such, it is not a continuous statistic, as is the mean, for example (the VWAP). A shift in the mode must be taken into the context of the distribution, as N well points out.
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patriotstef, I subscribed to this thread when you opened it a couple of days ago, and was curious as to the response you would get. I think it's a compliment to you that you haven't gotten any real responses yet--in other words, you requested that people not say the typical stuff, and they have not. My point in a nutshell is this: perhaps you have already lost the game. You're giving the market an ultimatum: "prove to me that I can profit from your behavior, or I'm outta here!" In so doing, you have shifted the responsibility off of yourself, and have relinquished control of the outcome solely to the external. I can understand how it's easy to do this, and how you feel like you've tried everything, therefore you need to be shown that it's possible because you've basically exhausted all of your possibilities. But I think you know deep down that if this is your strategy, you might as well quit now. From another perspective, think about this: how many great inventors, explorers, scientists, etc., just prior to having their breakthrough moment, said to themselves, "okay, this is my FINAL attempt, and if I don't get it this time, I quit!!" ? My guess is, not many. They had dedicated their lives to conquering and overcoming the obstacles necessary to succeed. It would be pure dumb luck to succeed on one last hail mary attempt. However, many never made the breakthrough discovery, and spent a lifetime trying. Still others quit and went on to other things and would have succeeded with a little more time or effort or luck. The question is, which is worse: trying forever without success, or stopping when success could be just around the corner? It's a decision we all have to make, and is basically at the crossroads of where you stand now. No one can answer it but you, of course. -
Means more? Well that is very subjective of course... Do you think it's different if the market trades 20k contracts over a 4 tick range in 10 minutes, versus 20k contracts over a 4 tick range in 1 minute? Volume at price only tells part of the picture in this scenario. Maybe the other part of the picture is not important to you, but it is part of the picture, the trio of volume, price, and time.
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Sounds like a simulation trade?
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Unscientifically based opinion: with an order placed this far in advance, assume the fill.
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As this chart of weekly profiles shows, we have consistently built higher value every week this year. This past week was the first week since last December that we have not had a higher VPOC than the last week. The last week's VPOC (1340) looks like a potential candidate for a potential yearly VPOC shift (the rightmost profile next to the vertical axis). The idea I understand, from a read of TPO counts in Dalton's MoM, is that at some point, unless you have a shift in the POC, you are simply venturing into more "unfair" territory. If the market truly accepts a higher price, we will get a shift in the POC. Else, it will either continue to trend forever undirectionally, which markets cannot do, or it will tend to revert to the "fair" price. More likely in a strong market is that it will seek value away from the VPOC (in this chart, just above 1300), reach "unfair" territory, and then revert back and build value above the VPOC, and then a shift will occur. This is just one scenario that's possible as I see it.
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I hope this does not turn into a "what happened today" or intraday market status thread, because I find the topic very interesting and is something I have been studying quite a bit recently. While the VPOC shifted up, I think it's important to consider what is happening while the market trades in that area. Tom mentioned he watches delta. The second chart (from yesterday) here shows bid/ask delta volume. Consistent selling throughout the consolidation. The first chart shows TICK on top, and the blue line is its TWAP. Again, internally, the market is trading more at the bid. Does this guarantee anything? No, but with a ramp up in buying, and then equivalent selling, with no further movement up in price (this is important I think), then it's a good indication of the potential for a move down. A glance at the prior day (Thursday) will show a similar pattern of selling after a strong move up, but the market was actually moving up, NOT consolidating sideways as it was today, and the delta to the downside on that day was not as pronounced as Friday. Fundamentally of course, Greek news provided the trigger to sell, but it seems the market, by way of what we see on the charts there, was already considering that as a possibility.
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Underlying Theory Behind Candlestick Charting?
joshdance replied to ThePistonDoctor's topic in The Candlestick Corner
You have the wrong volume circled. The hammer was on increased volume (one to the left of what you circled), much more bullish. The last candle on your chart is hard to see but the volumes are even color coded--goes to show even a mistake can lead to good results! I do not view intraday candle patterns as significant; however, on the DAILY time frame I think what you have given an example of here is significant. Again, I see the structure of a day's OHLC as more meaningful than that of intraday, for reasons I have explained elsewhere. Nice job on the trade. -
Yikes.. "the new iPad" ... though, it looks cool, and finally has LTE .. I guess we know that "the new iPhone" or whatever it will be called will almost certainly have it, finally. Time will be 0600 GMT (1am EST) for final word on debt swap. On another note, rollover days are a reason I don't put a lot of faith in a long term profile for a futures contract. IQFeed started their new contract today, but most of the volume even now is still trading on the H contract; so in the continuous contract you will have a lot of market activity from today that will never be shown. A question: why not use SPY for a long term profile? It doesn't roll over (unlike ES), and has volume information available for profiling (unlike SPX).
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Yes -- from what I read, we won't know for sure an official status on the debt swap situation until tomorrow though, so I don't know if the afternoon deadline will mean much today, unless of course we get headlines, which of course I would not be surprised at.. I'm rolled over to ESM, and backfilled, and hate rollover days because the volume numbers are a bit more unfamiliar for me to read, whether I'm on the old or front month.
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or NFP on Friday -- ADP tomorrow has been way off the actual NFP number the last few months. NFP is what took this market above 1330, and the market may be returning to the scene of the crime. FWIW, we were 65% greater globex volume, but so far only 33% greater RTH volume. Median globex volume over 20 days is 297K, with a median range of 9.00 (with RTH being 9.25).
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Stopped at BE a little earlier at 61.75... still it was profitable, but the market not strong enough to get to high 60s without auctioning lower..
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Well we didn't get there today, but I'll leave this open with stop at BE and see if 68 can get reached afterhours.
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Should add that the VPOC target of 68 is actually more because it's last WEEK'S VPOC -- MWF last week had about the same price, and it's the mode of this entire upper distribution which goes from 60 or so to 77. And, it's right at the Sunday open just before the move down overnight. EDIT: just now (3:17) added 1 @ 63.25, seems like a logical add point. But, will reduce it at 62.00 if it retraces further.
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Still long, added 1 at 61.25 earlier, average is 60.50 -- I'm targeting 67 and 68. Rationale is that it broke above the balance area high at 61, and then it was just a VPOC test. Time of day, no gap fill, all pointed to up since it bottomed out earlier. Just hoping we will see some continuation here. 67 will be just below the IB high, and 68 will be just below yesterday's VPOC which is naked still so far, and all of that below Friday's close of 68.75.
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sellers found at top of balance at 61, but just now 59 held, could be considered a failed auction below value and the IB low, so i'm taking a 59.75 long, 58.75 stop on this .. higher lows and good positioning if it breaks out north
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sdoma, N, roztom -- good stuff, thanks for the reminders. On a market note, we have acceptance lower. However, the move below 59 failed to produce enough sellers to take it to new lows. I will remain bearish until we can get decisively above 61. Given the volume and low range so far, I do not expect miracles or excitement for the rest of today, and given that there is no scheduled news tomorrow, may be boring until Wednesday.
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I see where you're going, but ultimately I want my "right" and "wrong" to be aligned with what the market does, no?
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Well, I just bailed at BE -- will have to just wait now and see if I bailed at exactly the wrong time, or if it was a good exit.