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joshdance

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by joshdance

  1. joshdance
    You are a classic victim, rforexdad. It's everyone else's fault except yours... everyone's out to get you, everyone's attacking you. As for Rob Booker or any other seminars and systems, I recommend to avoid them. You don't need them. But if you do business with them, don't blame them if it doesn't work (and it probably won't).
  2. joshdance
    mike, it's not the experience he's sharing that I have a problem with, it's this kind of stuff: No facts, only "feelings" -- the hallmark of someone who hasn't a clue about critical thinking skills, and only knows what he "feels." I counted 5 or 6 times this has been said-- again, he's not reviewing a method or system, he's making accusations; how does he know Rob Booker's intentions? Just included this one because it's kind of amusing. Apparently "rforexdad" still hasn't figured out that no one "system" will work in all market conditions. Genius, I tell you. He's probably still looking for the perfect system. It's clear that he's simply frustrated that there are no shortcuts. An intelligent person recognizes this, and moves on, and gets to work figuring out the market and stops looking for systems that can be bought. One final one to chuckle at -- "Oh well then, you've tried them, and you're such a brilliant trader, they definitely must not work!" ... as if he's the authority. In reality though, I'm sure they don't work. Systems that can be purchased will not work over a long period of time. The market does not stay still long enough for systems to work, unless it's some kind of long term investment type of a system that takes only a trade or two per year.
  3. joshdance
    NO, not correct. It's either a bad product, or a product that did not work well for you. The question is this: When you spend money on a seminar or book or system from him, what does he promise? What does he GUARANTEE? Does he guarantee success? Not a chance. A scam is usually where someone is promised something, and it is not delivered. Like, someone calls you and asks you to donate to a foundation, when they do not represent the foundation. Or, the scams where you are sent a check, you cash it, and then are asked to send back a portion and the check winds up not clearing. These are crimes, like stealing. Unless Rob Booker promised future results, then this is not a scam if it doesn't work. It's simply another system which does or doesn't work. Don't call a bad product (or a good product that doesn't work for you) a scam, if it's not really a SCAM. Did he provide backtested results for this so-called system? If so, and if it had such a bad track record, then why did anyone purchase it? If he did not, are people so stupid that they blindly purchase something without seeing proven results? Did he hold a gun to anyone's head and force them to buy? Unless you take responsibility for your own actions and results, they will not improve. Instead of blaming Rob Booker for selling you a crappy system, how about blaming yourself for not doing your due diligence and getting burned for it. Again, let me repeat: if he promised results, then shame on him. If he did not (and I know he did not, no vendor would ever do that, it's actually against the law I think), then shame on you for assuming that past performance is indicative of future results, especially on 6 months of past performance.
  4. joshdance
    N, it's this simple: trading looks easy. I am a dancer, and I observe the quite common opinion of others who aspire to become dancers: it looks easy, so it should take a few lessons, right? Well, little do they know the intricacy of the art, and do not realize that it takes many YEARS (and not just a few), to become a truly skilled and proficient dancer, and only if there is some semblance of innate ability to begin with. Replace dancing with any art or skill here, particularly one you are proficient in, and it should be clear that trading can be no different. Yet, it seems easy, so $2500 should just about do it, right? That's it in a nutshell, IMO.
  5. joshdance
    After reading this thread with mostly two people bashing Rob Booker, I will try to introduce some more civil thoughts. Particularly the last statement made about his kids looking him up in the future... not called for, and going too far, IMO. Leave kids, family, anyone else out of this discussion. That borders on creepy, and I would question the character of anyone who said something like this. A scam is defined as a fraudulent scheme; one which has the purpose of deceiving for the purpose of profit. As far as I can see, Rob Booker sells books, seminars, and systems. What part of that is a scam to you? I wouldn't buy them, and would recommend that people stay away because I don't think it's particularly helpful. But to call him a "scammer" is to imply that he is trying to deceive. What evidence do you have of this? You know, evidence--actual facts, not just your emotionally-charged opinion. So much of trading is about the individual; it can't be proven that a system "doesn't work" because it depends on the trader. It's funny listening to you, rforexdad. You sound like a very jaded individual who bought a seminar and didn't get rich quick, and now you're pissed off. Well, get over it, stop blaming the system, and take a good look in the mirror if you want to accuse someone. Mystic, thank you for posting the video and trying to share. I do not endorse Rob Booker or anyone else, but I do appreciate when others share. If anyone does not like this person, or any vendors, then MOVE ON. I strongly dislike a person who is a vendor but pretends to not be; these people I call out. But how can you blame a vendor who is openly identifying himself as a vendor? The guy's trying to make money; if you don't like the product, MOVE ON.
  6. joshdance
    Does this help? .....
  7. joshdance
    Times like this, I ask myself what the best course is. Only in hindsight will I know for sure. Until it breaks 1400s will it really break free of this balance, so for now this location, 99.50 to 00, is actually technically, for me, an ideal short opportunity. I am short at 98.75 still. But location isn't much, if the direction is wrong. Delta tells me sellers are present. However, the market could not break back into yesterday's range. I wouldn't BUY here though, so why would I buy to cover my short? The market is rather neutral, but after finding demand below 96, the overall picture has looked pretty bullish. What do you all think about the picture?
  8. joshdance
    I am still on c2 N ... if you post a pic of your profile for today I can compare it with mine.. currently my ETH profile shows 99.50 as the VPOC and the VAH, but my RTH has 98.50 as VPOC and 99.50 as VAH
  9. joshdance
    Added 1 here at 98, and will look to scale one out at 96 .. but buyers still quite active on the bid, and even the offer the last few minutes, so we will just see... That's just the question isn't it N ... you mentioned the interesting volume at the open ... quite heavy selling... could that be filling orders at what one who wants to be short would consider the best price of the day? (99-00)... possible that we have seen the high? We will have to wait and see!
  10. joshdance
    I do not steve, but most of us use IQFeed from DTN (IRT is just the program). They offer a free trial I am pretty sure, and after fee waivers it is less than $100 a month and quite good.
  11. joshdance
    Though the order flow was long, 99.75 seemed to really cut off the buying, and I am short 99.25 ... TICK started trending down up here, and maybe another tick to 1400.00 was a bit too obvious to actually do it? My target is 93, see yesterday's profile/vwap. I could be dead wrong and this market may just keep buying up, but that's where I'm at.
  12. joshdance
    It will be interesting to see what happens here at 1400s ... in the order flow I see no reason yet (as of 11:06am EDT) to think the bulls are getting tired of buying these dips and then paying up.
  13. joshdance
    Just wanted to post a loss I just took, for learning purposes. I was looking to buy 96s, and 96 tested to the tick after news. Moved up, but on weak volume, not very convincing. Pushed lower by 2 ticks, and while it was not much and volume support was there (bullish), the move back up above 96 did not look convincing to me. I shorted 97.00, and took a loss at 98.75 ... I'm a little pissed because my plan was to buy 96s, but I just didn't see the buying support I wanted, so I suppose the right course would have been to simply wait, not take a trade counter to my original intention. Just putting that out there.
  14. joshdance
    Quad witching today, so stay on your toes gentlemen!
  15. joshdance
    Was going to suggest that Tom -- especially with these new releases, if I am going to change anything major, I do a Save All for my charts, Backup Database, and then you can do whatever you want and even if it crashes and messes up your database, you can just restore from backup or revert an individual chart.
  16. joshdance
    Today was one of the easier days for me to read so I thought I would post a shot of what I saw as I took my first trade -- it was a long at 88.75 just after the news, covering at 92.25 for 3.50 handles. Here are the things in my mind at the time in order: 1) Overnight activity: bullish, then balance. Testing Wednesday's lows early in globex, the market shot up fast during Asia, and then stayed in a 4 point range the rest of the session. 2) The open-- it is within yesterday's range, and yesterday's value. This suggests a balanced market from the start, but again, a market which has been relatively bullish overnight. 3) The drive down at the open: the move down was clearly a search for value. It was far too linear, vertical, and lacking "pop" to be selling of the type that is seeking to move out of balance. Rather, this market was clearly in search of buyers. TICK was helpful too -- lower lows, but none on TICK. Not quite hitting -500, this is not serious selling activity. 4) The location: my area I was watching was 88s, Wednesday's primary area of activity and close. The market did an "extreme" by testing below this, and as the chart shows the shape started to curve and "round" as I call it. The delta on the volume shows a tapering off of selling, yet a steady pace of volume, indicating market buyers getting involved. I was tempted to buy here, but decided to wait until after the report. 5) Push up before the report: very bullish with strong buying. 6) Retrace after the report: this was the trigger. The black arrow shows how 88.50 held strongly, even though we had 15k trade in 60 seconds, then another 10k. Bids just held nicely. The actual momentum on the tape was what made it clear, only in real time (or replay I guess) could you see it so clearly. I bought at this time. 7) The exit: The 92.25 exit was an easy one. Sure it was kind of early, but my target was 93, and to me it's quite foolish to risk giving back 8 ticks (where I had moved my stop) to gain 3. Location was such that I expected sellers, both from premarket supply as well as yesterday's profile shows.
  17. joshdance
    bojangle, 1) Just because you don't have the skill to read the "useless micro" doesn't mean others don't. By the way, I'm not saying I'm great at it either, but changes in the micro are at the foundation of changes in the macro, IMO. 2 points is reasonable, and sometimes I go beyond that to 3 or 4, but many times I take less than 3 or 4 ticks of heat. Other times of course, I'm just plain wrong. 2) Have a look over at ET on the 2012 ES journal. I and others post real time trades; some trades I'm taking now are sim as I'm experimenting, but many people post real time trades, both live and sim. Check it out if you want to see live calls, if that proves something to you.
  18. joshdance
    Reply from DTN forums:
  19. joshdance
    I think N referred to this, but the double top two weeks ago was the location of the buying this morning. I took a +1.5 on a short this morning and was hoping for a near fill to 69, but should have had my eye out for a long due to location.
  20. joshdance
    Simply put, the bids were dominating. Buyers were choosing to bid, instead of pay up. The buying came in the passive form, instead of the active. And the delta is just reflecting that. Market selling was NOT being offset with market buying; instead, buyers were bidding. And sellers, after that failed push which gave you the big delta drop, simply were not sitting on the offer as they realized it was going higher, hence, not a strong delta on the subsequent move back up. This is why delta is no magic -- price can rise quite happily with falling delta, though it will not usually do so as freely as when buyers are paying up, indicating their urgency to be in the market, and chasing the market.
  21. joshdance
    Well I'm just armchair quarterbacking here, but you have a consolidation that broke out, and then was met by selling--pretty standard stuff. But the market only ticked down 4 ticks high to low... not exactly a strong reaction in price for such a strong wave of market selling. No reason to exit the long IMO but hey, I was flat so it's easy for me to say in hindsight. I don't understand your question: "Wouldn't you think that if the selling was being offset with buying that the Delta wouldn't have dropped so hard?" ... -- ??
  22. joshdance
    Yes but this is definitely a data question, not IRT as I originally thought...
  23. joshdance
    Will let you know -- I won't compare now, but possibly they are adding some volume from the March contract since it is still receiving pretty heavy volume, presumably until expiration at the end of this week.
  24. joshdance
    My T&S and daily bar are showing 1.1M+, but a 1440m bar shows 700K+ N, what does a daily bar (like an actual daily bar, not a 1440m) show for total volume so far? EDIT: I compared for yesterday as well and a discrepancy there as well. Seems like I have gone down this road before, having a deja vu moment, and will simply not worry about this at the moment. I will ask IQF.
  25. joshdance
    I just examined the volume bars and that is correct, but for some reason my T&S is showing a lot more than that... hmm will investigate this.
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