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joshdance

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by joshdance

  1. joshdance
    Speaking of which I've never seen your chart before! Don't post if you don't like but I always find it fascinating how people can have so many different views of the same thing I don't see a vpoc shift in this context as significant. It's just one blob of activity, 94 to 98. A shift in here means much less than if the market were to break out to around 1400, and then rotate there for a while, and get a shift there.
  2. joshdance
    Everybody got the popcorn popping and your seat ready for Ben's lecture series at GWU in 15 mins?? Actually it may be interesting from an academic point of view anyway.
  3. joshdance
    I like your thought process Tom, and I cast my vote for #1.
  4. joshdance
    Well, unless he's very near the exchange, and running HFT algos, then I doubt his orders getting there a few ms quicker are going to matter much but to each his own... I do understand the importance though of internet reliability, as I had a multi-month span during the second half of last year where my connection was awful, and not suitable for trading, which was eventually fixed. I traded through it and it taught me to appreciate it when it works flawlessly, as it has been since December.
  5. joshdance
    I'm always curious, what platform and data feed does a guy like that use? And I hope his assistant is rather plain looking; no distractions needed when throwing around 50 cars... I really do like the idea of standing at a podium, I think that's a fantastic way to biologically "force" the body to keep focus.
  6. joshdance
    lol -- Tom, I have already pushed the green button and am probably not going to do so until near the close. I had a beauty of a trade this morning, I bought 92, one tick from the low, exited a bit early, but got back in and have had a stellar morning. I have that dangerous feeling where it's like the market has been going where I send it in my mind. Joking about this, but it has been one of those days. Took 1 tick of heat on each of the two trades, it simply doesn't get any better feeling than that. I had my level at 92 to watch, the volume poured in, tried to break down, weaker volume and couldn't push it, and off it went north. My mistake was the early exit, as my target was somewhere between 98 and 00. But, I did get back in. If anyone's wondering, I had two areas to look to buy: 93.75-94.25, and 92.00-92.50. The bids stopped it cold at 92... I would not have randomly bought there if I had not already been watching it like a hawk, and if the volume/tape didn't support it. Both aligned, and it was a good opportunity. As always a bit of luck too, as anything can happen, but luck earned in this case I think. BTW, earlier I simply meant that you spelled Linn "Lind" ... call him Bill or Dr. Linn or Buddy Joe if you like ;-)
  7. joshdance
    That's "Linn" Tom, Dr. Linn by the way Would hate for you to call him the wrong name when you email him
  8. joshdance
    Wow, I am sitting at 170M memory usage and feeling quite lean compared to you guys ;-) Of course I only have 2 or 3 streams coming in, and only ES is tick-intensive.
  9. joshdance
    Everyone closing out their longs for the day, or one last shot to run the shorts out of town?
  10. joshdance
    Can't catch 100% of every move Tom, you did well, and you'd be feeling pretty lousy if the market had reversed at 1406.50, come all the way back to 1401 and you'd closed it there... only in hindsight do we know whether our decision was the one that would have yielded the most profit.
  11. joshdance
    The irony could not be more perfect.
  12. joshdance
    Well if there has been one thing for sure today, it's that my hypothesis that we would range was WAY off. We are now from 70% earlier relative volume, all the way up to 95%. There seems to be little shortage of buyers willing to pay up. Almost so much that it seems only the naive would do so, but so far, they have proven to be on the profitable side of the market today. No fear here, it seems. I guess the important thing is that I abandoned my hypothesis when I saw the first real signs that the market probably would not trade lower (when I closed my 2nd short) and did not stick to it with misplaced hope.
  13. joshdance
    Not right or wrong Tom, just a different start date -- king of the composite, FT71, begins his long term profile in 10/2007, which you are as well I think, because that's the most recent top. N is using the beginning of that whole period of balance so it goes further. Personally I think a look at SPY, or even TPOs of SPX, would give a clearer picture, as ES has been back-adjusted, spliced, combined, and mangled many different ways by many different data providers in those last 5 years at each rollover (about 18 of them). Just look at the last major swing low last October 2011 -- looking at a continuous ES contract you would think it only dipped 3 points below the August low, when a look at the cash will show it actually went 26 points below. Just my Cash shows market's next target IMO: 1440, by the time we get there probably about 1437 ES.
  14. joshdance
    An interesting graphic of the YTD VWAP, which is in blue, with 1st (red) and 2nd (green) standard deviation bands.
  15. joshdance
    NOTHING concerning the bulls, IMO. For several months they have had what has been essentially a zero risk environment.
  16. joshdance
    I wonder if the market will return any time soon to the normalcy that economic concerns would lead to caution and thus selling, and good economic news would mean confidence, and thus an investment in it. Today, concerns and doubts about a healthy economy cause all eyes to look to the fed, whose monetary policies have to this point shown willingness to always help; and signs of a strengthening economy lead to more of the same. Fed's Fisher says no more liquidity needed | Reuters
  17. joshdance
    This is why I usually don't watch too many interrelated markets (or any at all most of the time) .. just ES and the cash. It's easy to get too caught up in divergences between two markets like equities and euro, and then next thing you know they're converging, then diverging, and then I scratch my head and realize that reading one market is difficult enough, without introducing another, with the added complexity of the interrelationship between the two. At some point I may give it another shot as I do see the value in understanding these market relationships, but watching them is another thing altogether from understanding them, so for now I'm content with just ES to watch.
  18. joshdance
    Closed my short 1400.00, too much volume for me right at the VWAP ... could go either way IMO though down is still quite possible... Was just thinking about dx, euro, etc... -- I have not watched either for some time. Can you talk a little more about the relationship right now with equities?
  19. joshdance
    Thanks N -- I have re-shorted here at the high, 1401.25, with a small stop as I don't want to get railroaded, but I see enough volume to offer resistance to the buying, but overall I am still leaning towards a neutral type of day, given the news schedule (or lack thereof) and volume overnight and so far. I just don't see OTF participating enough up here to reprice the market higher today.
  20. joshdance
    I did not use c3 long enough to notice, upgraded to c4 today as well. I did notice this though on one of the betas ... it went up to almost 500K, which it has never done before, so that sounds very plausible tom... As for today, I shorted 1401 and covered 1399, as the offers just above yesterday's high held very strongly, but due to the low relative volume (74% so far) and general balance I'm seeing, I did not want to push my luck and thought +2 might be a good place to close it. So, we had lots of happy buyers above 1400, but met with responsive sellers. The attached chart is kind of how I see the lines drawn-- balance 1386 to 1394, and the upper portion of that, 1394 was tested and held overnight. Seems initially in this first hour like a day to play the range -- 1394 to 1401. Just an initial observation though. What do you guys see this morning?
  21. joshdance
    Changing directions a bit: 1) Can you briefly (briefly) explain what causes a market to move (i.e., what causes prices to change)? 2) Why do you choose GBP/CHF?
  22. joshdance
    I have no objective evidence, so I will simply say that I believe this is so based on anecdotal observation. One such observation is that you have received so many PMs already on this just in the last few hours. Do these people not already have many, many sources of information, of reference, to study, and learn from? There are several internet forums with thousands of articles, posts, and wisdom to draw from; some of it is crap, some of it is golden, but there's a lot of information out there to draw from. So, why would several people PM you, offering to buy something, with such widespread information available? Simple: they don't want to sort through the crap, they don't want to spend their Sunday afternoon testing or studying or reading, trying to determine the wheat from the chaff. They would rather pay you a large sum of money, sight unseen, for an untested, unverified system, than to turn on their brains and learn to study themselves. They want one person (you) to show them "the way," which is in reality "your way," rather than developing their own way. One final observation is that if one wants to learn how to trade, then they should realize that it can only be done by doing, not by buying. One can learn about markets and concepts and ideas, but one has to have his butt in the chair, eyes on the screen, and money in the game, to actually learn how to trade.
  23. joshdance
    By the way SpearPoint, you wrote this a few months ago: Why are you trying new systems if you developed one over the course of 15 years and it's apparently worthy of asking money for?
  24. joshdance
    Possibly, or more grail seekers who want to pay for success rather than thinking for themselves. Let us know how many PMs you get in the next week bidding way over $500 for your material, it should be interesting to see... The more you highlight its likelihood to never be released, the more secretive, elusive, and thus valuable it seems; I'll bet you some sucker offers you 10 grand for it.
  25. joshdance
    Which people expected you to slave away writing your book for free? Did some people ask you to do it? From what I can tell, no one has asked you to give it away, and you did it own your own. Your trading system is the sum of 15+ years of hard work, dedication, and experience. Your mistake would to think that someone who read it and studied it would get 15+ years of experience out of it. They wouldn't. They would likely be reading "another book"... why? Because they don't OWN it .. when someone purchases a trading system, it's not theirs, and no amount of tweaking can make it theirs. They need to develop their own way. It's your baby, and so of course you think it's great. And no doubt it contains great stuff, but you can't simply pass along that stuff, because it's a part of who YOU are, and you can't pass that along in a book. The sad part is there are probably some people right now composing a private message to you offering to buy it, thinking they have found the holy grail. These are the type of people who cannot be helped by courses, no matter how "good" the material.
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