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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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94 was my next to last buy area -- below here and we get into the territory of excess from yesterday's test below, and then 87 is fair game IMO. EDIT: bought 95.50 here
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I came back to find myself stoped out below the low just now :-/ ... I have potential to be stupid here, so I will watch for a bit and calm myself. Something I must improve guys, is the ability to realize when I'm wrong--when it popped above 99 after I had added 1, I did not like the way it stopped dead cold, and then traded back down to 98... yet, I held on and could have gotten out for either a profit, or breakeven, but I was quite stubborn and wanted a replay of yesterday, which did not happen.
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If you're going to be long so far, 97 is not a bad price, it's better than mine, good luck!
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Yes N, that was the same basis for my idea of a rotation short, which I could not jump on fast enough... not much buying up there, nice job! I have bought 97.50 just now; the action on the tape leads me to hypothesize 95.75 as the LOD, pretty much seconds after it was hit, but let's see. It will depend solely on buyers willingness to pay up and 96.75 or so should really hold here if we are to go back to 1400s+ edit: 10:40am et, I added 98.25 a minute ago, and now am targeting 1401, then 1404.50
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This last bottom at 10:10 was it, I think.... maybe not low of the day, but definitely interest there. Order not filled to buy at 96.50, but bidding 96.75 here. I won't keep posting updates, it's too distracting at the moment so will try to buy here and keep risk down as much as possible.
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Well I missed the rotation down, but I have bought 98.25, looking to position for a possible good number coming up. This was one of my buy points, and as it does not appear to be caused by much of anything, so I will take my chance here and risk a point or so. EDIT: -3 ticks on this guys, I will re-evaluate.. quite strong selling at the moment.
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I do not see lots of buying yet, so we may rotate lower to auction. Thus if I see an opportunity here I may try a short, but will keep it on a tight leash and probably look for quick profits.
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As long as we stay within yesterday's range, I will be a buyer. Yesterday's activity after the open is IMO an example of "excess" where the market auctions below a well-defined area that should be demand, and tests this, and then clearly rejects this area below. Dalton talks about this in MoM. So, with the open likely being just around yesterday's close with only bullish action overnight, any auctioning down is likely to be met with buyers. My prices are1400, 1398, 1396, 1394, give or take a few ticks here and there. In other words, for me it's more about what the market does in this range, rather than where, as there are many potential buy points.
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Bernanke testimony with Geithner begins at 9:30 EDT. I love this: As if it's over...? :rofl:
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Sometimes I step in front of it, but usually not. Either way, I always use a limit regardless, as opposed to a buy or sell at market order, I will just put the buy limit at the inside offer price and vice versa, so that it becomes a marketable limit order, that way the market doesn't slip away from me suddenly and I'm at least guaranteed that price.
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Correct. Lesson learned today is to wait for the market to come to my logical area first. Did well with it this morning, not so much this afternoon. The early strength set up a great scenario to add at each trend line touch, and exit at my shaded area of 1400/1401. Of course, we don't know there will be this trendline so early, so it's easy to say looking in retrospect...! I think 97/98 is also support Tom. This late in the day I get nervous, but this was my short target as well.
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Well, I think today was kind of a Paso... or maybe a Tango. Rarely do we dance a soothing Foxtrot or Waltz, though I would like to be able to do that with the market more often. Today was ideal for it but I chose a different (more aggressive) dance instead. :rofl:
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Well, the trade was triggered by what I saw on the volume/tape. I also was looking to buy 94s based on low volume area as the chart shows, but the order flow was not right for it there. Hard to buy in the face of that selling and sometimes I get run over, but sometimes I'm right. What is this in response to?
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Ok I'll consider myself lucky shorting this so many times after my initial long bias, I am out for at 99.50 and just going to observe the rest of the afternoon unless I see something very compelling. Got 1.5 on it, makes for a decent afternoon.
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Bingo... It is the third shaded region from the top on the chart I posted earlier. Does it seem crazy to short one more time up here? Well, call me crazy, I'm looking for that nice 3 or 4 point rotation down to finish the day.
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Not really but thank you .. given that I bought 1 tick from the bottom I should be up more than I am now :-/ ... I think I stepped on the market's toes a bit today, or perhaps it's the other way around, in our little "dance" today :o
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Nice job Tom, very awesome.
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Trend line buyers.... ah, I love these people (sarcasm if you can't tell). Probably lots of bots actually. edit: I just closed this at 99.50, at least I made what I lost on the prior trade, and so I'm back to where I was. I don't trust that they won't mindlessly keep buying it so I'll just be safe and close and look to get in after the intentions become more clear. I really expect at least a breach of it below, but psychologically I will feel better by closing here for profit. For me as a discretionary trader, that part is very important, even if it minimizes profit on any given trade.
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I don't have anything close to a poc at 1401 yesterday tom ... it's the upper part of that distribution, but 1405.50 is my vpoc yesterday. 1400.00 is high volume price from yesterday in that distribution. Basis is partly that distribution, partly that 1400s is last week's high (edit: and partly that it's the upper area of the balance area on the chart shown below). The early adopters (me here) are sometimes rewarded, but more often than not are punished for "guessing" so that's why I'm putting stop to 1400.75, and I'll try again if I get stopped out, because knowing this market anything can happen... but I'm counting on 97-98. Here is a shot I took this morning before we got here.
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Which POC? Stop to BE btw, I'm looking for 97-98, for at least a fake TL break.
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I will try to be smarter ONE more time, 1400.75, not going to start a live trade trail here, but just posting this as it was originally where I intended to short, got trigger happy earlier.
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Ouch... hmm, maybe I tried to outsmart the market ... :boxing: ... seems like those are the REAL stops... or is it initiative buying? hmm.
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Whether you like trendlines or not, the market is buying at every touch of the trend line today, from the lows till just now. It's shallowing out though, so at least a false breakdown here can be expected IMO, usually after 5 touches it gets too easy so they have to shake some out. I hope so anyway, short from 99.25
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This pop up had the character of a stop run, and then one last ditch attempt to make it look real, but ultimately I think we will head back down. That's a bold statement but I will offer 99.50 to see if it's right or not.
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It is just a lecture series, and I highly doubt he will say anything market-moving, monetary policy related. This is meant, to my understanding, to be just an academic perspective, and will not contain anything newsworthy.
