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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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Scaled off 1/2 at 87.25, let's see now...
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Looking for 81.00 on this short from 90.50 ... too optimistic, or maybe just downright wrong direction?
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I just bought 88.25, seeing the hopefully inevitable hitting of 90s, for a 2 point scalp here if 90.25 is hit. EDIT: that was quick, only got 89.75 but it's 1.5 to start the day. Sell orders at 90.50 and 91.50
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Price moving to the top of the overnight value area. In relation to yesterday's value, all selling here is initiative. But the overnight range is clear.
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With a 14.75 ON range, I do not want to sell below for extension... but I also cannot buy at the moment, particularly given the fundamentals and general sentiment. So, I will be a responsive seller around 90/91.
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After doing this for a while and gaining comfort with hardware and software, it should run as smooth as silk on a day-to-day basis. Maintenance will come on the weekends. I see you are using NT; that's your first hurdle in terms of stability and reliability (I use NT for order routing only these days). Where is your data coming from? Once you find the tools you really love, and you get to know them in and out, then those little issues will become quite small as you will be prepared for them.
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Xiao Si, would you call trying to buy other people's trading systems running a trading business?
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To collaborate realtime my man! (instead of typing posts in a forum) Actually I like the forum format, because it's easy for me to walk away and focus when necessary. The real time thing is harder to break away from, which is bad for me. I don't want to start posting all my stuff live all the time.
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I think this is a very powerful statement, and ultimately what trading in the day timeframe is all about. When one or two losing trades hit, it becomes VERY difficult for me to get in sync with the market, because I am TRYING to crawl back to profitability. The mind is unclear, and is looking for something that simply is not there. When one is in sync, however, it's like there is no need to force anything... just let the market do it's thing, and then when it's time to take the trade it's almost 100% clear that the market will do this or that.
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When moving into "uncharted waters," as we have been recently, I see the value more, though I still think that more traders will be watching a long term chart of SPX and SPY for points of reference. My point was that in this particular area and range, that the market obviously cares more about recent activity than 4 year old activity. But I digress, and I'll get off that horse.
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It's a four part lecture series. Perhaps you should wait until all four parts are complete before you criticize omission of information. I'm sure he will address QE and other items.
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HSBC flash China March PMI tumbles to 48.1 - MarketWatch I mentioned that I would be looking to buy anything 94 or over, per the last chart I posted... as I type at 12:55am EDT, market has supported this area, not surprising. But when I wake up in 7 hours it will be interesting to see if it has held. See you all in the morning (or afternoon as the case may be )
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I knew that China concerns were on trader's minds, but I didn't know it was THAT big of a deal... sheesh.
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Here is my picture. It's from earlier today I think. I agree that it was definitely bearish that the market could not breaker higher this afternoon. But until it goes south of those two shaded lines below, I'm a bull Just look at that profile on the left, it's this week so far. Very clearly defined balance area. The one on the right is simply this portion of the yearly profile. All that 2007 composite activity means about as close to zero as it possibly can as long as we are in this range, IMO. This was essentially the reason I did not buy this afternoon; it's prime area for shorting, and it would have needed to break above 1402, hold there, and then I would have looked to have bought. But until it did that, it was simply a good shorting area.
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Tom, in a word--yes. The thing is, none of us will look at a chart and only have one perspective, buy or sell. We all at least consider, even if for a moment, both possibilities. And when we lose, our hindsight bias takes over, and we do the "coulda shoulda"... not saying your dominant bias was not short, but had it moved up above 01s and made a run higher, as you had hoped it would when you were long, then we would be talking a different story and you would likely be thinking that your short bias was misplaced--so a small series of events, which can not be predicted ahead of time, that occurred about 3:30, is causing you to have the feeling you are. But the thing is, the bearish view was good for about the first hour and a half, and the last half hour. Otherwise, the order flow was bullish throughout the day. Will it continue to break down and go below 90s? Possibly, in which case your bearish view was right. But IMO we still have a clear range, 94s to 01s, and this late selloff doesn't really mean much until the low 90s are breached. I was still looking to buy near the end of the day but will post a chart later showing why I did not (and happy I did not).
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Just don't beat yourself up Tom. If I thought about quitting every time I had a bad day, I'd have left trading a long time ago. We all have bad days, me more than any of you probably. Just work it out, don't get down on yourself, and think about how much you enjoy doing this profession; revitalize yourself and I'll see you tomorrow when you'll be heavy in the green partner!
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pop up to 1401 here smells like a trap...
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The character is such that I expect at least another run for the high. And 97s might be the best price we get if it's going up, though I would not be shocked to see 96s. Much below that, and a run at the day's low may be in store, and if that were to break, we would be overlapping yesterday's excess buying tail (down to 92), which would signal to me that 87s is is likely. Not all that may happen this afternoon for sure, but it seems a plausible scenario to me. The top here is not particularly convincing, and at least another effort to break it is in store this afternoon IMO. 1:45pm is not a time I want to open a trade usually though, more around 2:30 or so would be ideal, or even 3:00. I am still bullish and see yesterday's test below to 92 a very significant signal of the demand in this area.
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Now THIS would be nice! But in honesty I feel lucky that I am having a day in the black and not in the red. I basically got back in at my earlier stop out price, so essentially I bought on the way down, when I'd prefer to have bought around 95.50, scaled in another at 96, and one more at 97.25, on the way UP -- I would have had a better profit and experience. I suppose it would have been worse to not re-enter though, so at least I'm happy I did that part right--nothing makes most traders more sick than stopping out and then seeing their idea play out without them. Yes it is
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Here's the view after the TL break earlier...
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Just got home, and closed the final one at 1400.50 -- I can see 1403 or even higher, but I don't think it's happening until it rotates towards 98s first. Now I can enjoy my lunch and not think about this market for a few mins
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checking in from my phone, and using voice dictation, so the post may not be quite accurate. But I just logged in and saw that the target was almost hit, so I closed the 2nd unit 1400.25. Putting the stop at 1399, and will be back home soon.
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Oops, read you wrong sorry I am putting my stop to 95, and going to work out for a bit. Looking for 1401, and if I'm lucky 1403.
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While I have migrated away from time-based charts slowly, they still can't be beat for trendlines, since they are constant (relatively) and very widely used, and many people will be looking at the same trend line. I hate trend lines, but I am forced to acknowledge their existence. This 1 minute chart shows a trend line break, and while it's not a "solid" trend line in that it was never respect a third time, which is necessary to really establish it, I am relieved (as a buyer) that it was not respected on this last touch. This will signal to many traders that they are now "safe" to buy; let's see if it plays out that way. Tom, you were buying 98.75, and I was selling 98.50 -- isn't it interesting how having an open position can have such a drastic effect on the perception of value at a particular price?
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Just took my first scale at 98.50, stop to 95.75 on rest Targets 1401 and 1403, perhaps a bit optimistic and will probably take 4 hours or so to get there if we're going... As for Bernanke, this is it: Fed's Bernanke says sees no danger of ECB printing inflationary amounts of money to prevent a sovereign default Sounds like perhaps you heard it the other way N?
