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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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Got in the game late here, and maybe wrong direction at this point, but shorted 83, looking for 78 ... already at 8.50 range, 9.50 median over 20 days, so perhaps a few more points is wishful thinking nowadays...
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Did you forget to add "Yesterday's Close" (89.00) to the list...?!?
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Thank you... duh! :doh: Yesterday, I mentioned the buying tail being negated by further trading into that area, but I did not think about this fitting into your definition of a "poor low" ... Isn't your 3/19 high a poor high as well still?
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I'm surprised you call yesterday's low a poor one -- is that because of the DB? I would think the swift fashion with which it bounced off the low to qualify for your definition of a "good low" .. no?
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Well, 82.50 was the prior low of the day, so it was no surprise that there were buyers there... That was a scenario in my mind I had planned for, but I simply didn't see the level of buying I would expect to take it that high. You say that you construct SD bands based on the previous close. Speaking of basic statistics.. volatility can't be based on a single value (a close in this case) -- so, what is the data set on which you are measuring volatility?
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Well it's not wrong or right, just your interpretation of what you saw in retrospect. I was absolutely on fire yesterday with my read of the market, and I was only shocked because the last few minutes threw me for a loop. The reason that I expected more downside was that even though there was supporting volume at the very bottom on the first push to 82.75, and then a low volume touch of the low at 82.50 -- a classic buy for me -- there was just not much sign of buying on the way down... it seemed odd to me that it would push back up so high, so fast, with no sellers along the way really trying for one more push at the low. And with not too much buying from the low of 82.50 into the closing minutes, we then see a huge surge of volume all the way up at 87.50 -- and then THAT area is supported heavily by bids when sellers tried to short it. It just seemed out of place to me, all the way around.
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After considering this last part of the day, I was obviously upset, but it could have been worse. There were worse places to short there, and just happy I didn't mess up really big. At least I can say this: I went with my premise and I am not upset at all that I missed the long, because I was not expecting it to play out that way at all. Time for a few hours sleep, and back at it in the morning!
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Closed this final one 87.25 .... pretty stupid at the end here really... I was in sync with the market all the way until the last 40 minutes.... I did NOT see that buying coming..... I hate getting pissed off, but when the market makes NO sense to me that's how I get. All day it made sense. Now we get tens out thousands bought at 87s, and then bids hold like crazy in 87s? wtf man.... geez There was NO buying on the way down to 83, and it didn't even test a tick below the low... surprising that whoever's buying here is confident that this will be some kind of strong double bottom...
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out for -1 point ... WTF is with this close? edit: re-shorting 88.25 .. hopefully this is not a stupid idea.
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finally shorted, 87.75, but may be on the wrong side now -- will see
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looking to sell around 86 depending... this does not look like what a low should look like IMO ... further drop to new lows IMO edit: 3:38pm, not short yet, maybe 87.50, depends on volume
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If I see a reaction and real buyers at 85s here I will buy, but the further we go the less the buying tail means, thus the lower potentially, to 77-80, we may go... edit 3:05pm -- so at this point, the market MUST show me buyers. So far, it's just test lower, test lower, no real volume to indicate size is here. I fear for the longs they may be waiting to buy the low, or even lower. When I see some real volume, I'll know there is real support. At this time of day this is important to me; this kind of volume at lunch means something different than it does at 3pm IMO.
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The 87.50s to 88.50s have become the local mode of this distribution, both today and including post Fed trading; it's the largest south of 95s and north of 68s. Much lower here and we start to negate the buying tail created this morning... I need to see some real volume and positive buying reaction before I buy here.
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If they do not sell strongly at 91, I can see a possible case for selling 92, but I'd be a bit worried that we'd retest the balance low at 94s first, so it's a little bit of a scary short for me at 92. Also depends on time of day... I'm actually looking to buy at the moment.
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If you were going to sell, where would YOU do it? ...
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Just rotation around balance right now... This is an example of what we were talking about before, N talking about being in tune with the market's ebbs and flows, and the importance of a good win or two... had I been frustrated because I missed lots of opportunities early, I would have been more likely to stubbornly hold onto this short which did not react the way I wanted it to initially. But because I am well in the green, there's no pressure to force anything. I would have been stopped out here at 88.75 or so, for an unnecessary 1 point loss. When I look at the chart, 91 seems more likely to be reached unless we can quickly close back down below 88 and see some selling strength. The longer we hang up here, the more sellers will wait until 91 to reshort this IMO.
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Maybe the wrong move, but bailing for a tick here at 87.50 ... luck of the draw here IMO.
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OK, got the 2, short 87.75, but I'd like to see a quick rejection of 88 here.. if it keeps pushing I will simply bail.
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Good point about stops Tom ... as I said about 90, I would not be totally shocked to see it before sellers step back in... edit: As I think about this though, after this little retracement, perhaps the shorts moved their stops above 87, and a pop to 88 will wash many of them out?
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Taking another scalp long here at 85.75, for 2 points, then a reverse short at 87.75 -- let's see if Mr. Market agrees or if I close this .... As N said, we may get rotation to 84.50, and then up...
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One more push up to 88, to trap just a few more buyers who are pissed that they have not bought because there have not been any retracements? VWAP, Open, 50% all breached means buy buy buy right?
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Took a 1 point long scalp here, 87 hit, now we can go down but 88 might be in the cards as well. I would not be shocked to see 90 either. I will sell 87.75 if it gets there but only for a small target.
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I may be a bit off as it gets hard for me to tell around now, but I expect a rotation up to 87s or so before we go much (if at all) lower.
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I actually just covered 83.75, as we are getting to "that" time of day, Draghi speaking soon, and heavy volume entered here, plus I have to leave the house in 30 minutes and I'd rather just be flat... but 81 seems quite possible still...
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Nice job CYP, my stop is 86 on my short as I don't want to give up more than that..
