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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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In addition (hopefully not out of scope of this thread Db), it helps me to think of the current market's mood rather than the current trend. A trend is more about what has happened in the past, which of course can affect the current mood, but what happened in the recent past can be quite different from what is happening right now. I may have been happy all week, but this morning I may be in a very bad mood, so interacting with me today in the same way that you interacted with me earlier this week may not prove as effective. From Aug 6 until Aug 20, with maybe 2 or 3 exceptions the market's mood every day was lackluster selling, and a willingness to (reluctantly but obediently) buy the lows, and ease back to the highs. Starting on Aug 21, something was different about the selling -- it was from a rejection of 1425 (ES), had conviction, and meant business. But Friday, the mood of the market became clear about 10am ET, and definitely by 10:30am when it traded back into Thursday's range, SPX held above 1400, and then it popped. In that environment, the mood says "buy" and until that mood changes, then selling is like turning the wrong way down a one-way street.
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Bingo. The past only gives us some relative context for the present, and has nothing to do with direction, at least from a day trading perspective. Just as when driving with a map, the map gives us an idea of where to turn, but the direction we are actually going is unrelated to the map.
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Enter the world of confusion as you learn that there are more than a couple of ways to splice a futures contract. My back-adjusted contract shows a high of 1413 on that date. Better to look at the cash index for the "real" high anyway (attached).
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You consistently are taking trades right at or before the open. The open is significant, and sometimes a trade like this makes sense, but as dB said, the market has not really shown its hand yet at all. It almost certainly will break and test one or both of the immediate boundaries (00.75 and 97.50), and in this case it tested above the nearest boundary, right where you stop was. At least you did short the top of the range and not the bottom, but nothing wrong to wait and see what's up. On a market note -- quite clear what's going on, one perspective anyway. Market breaks north of overnight range, and tests the middle of yesterday's balance, vpoc at 1404. Has trouble breaking it, comes down to (no surprise) the top of the overnight range at 00.75, finds good volume support. Making higher lows along a trendline drawn from the low of the day, and has finally challenged 04. I am long and scaled at 04, but looking for 05.75 or higher, yesterday's VAH. Market is certainly trying. In this kind of market it's a case of getting in, and waiting. If it fails, I'm simply trailing my stop below the trend line and will take a small profit on the 2nd half (but would much prefer higher ) Nothing we can do to speed this up, unfortunately.
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DB mentioned this, but I was thinking the same thing as I read your post: who cares what it's called? Call it the "goodoboy special" ... does not matter what you call it. No need to call it anything. Meant to say congrats on a couple of good trades you posted recently. It may not matter much to you at this point, but you are trading ES, but looking at the cash chart. And a free, not very good one either--free is okay, but the data just doesn't look right. Attached is a 5-second updated cash chart, and what it really should look like (I have not seen an update interval less than 5s for S&P). At some point you may find it helpful to see the actual ES data. It does look and behave differently (even if for nothing else that it updates more often than 5 seconds).
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Great post dB. At the root of most of our problems in trading is what you just said. I think it's that simple. Gambler's mentality kills. Hope is a 4 letter word.
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Look at the chart he posted. He is referring (I believe) to the second, more downward-sloping line.
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Looking for lower prices, I have shorted this pop.
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Still eyeing 92 - 93.50
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Possible buy area for me is 97s, overnight lows. Or more likely, 92.50 - 93.50 -- see profile of last 5 days for reference. I will consider a short if get up to overnight highs and things look right for it.
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Joseph, I agree with you that charlatans are everywhere in the trading world. As are liars who are looking to have their ego stroked by the unwashed masses. And I also agree that people who post on this thread that they are successful, have strategies, etc., without giving any more information than that, simply are wasting server space. If this bothers you, the best thing you can do is unsubscribe to this thread. Let it go. But seeing that you are persisting, be aware that you and the original poster are asking the wrong questions. You also asked the wrong question three years ago in your third post on this site: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/day-trading-scalping/6862-idea-850-two-1-tick-trades.html#post77606 It's 2012--why are you pursuing the same pipe dream and chasing the same goose you were three years ago? I encourage you to read "Hedge Fund Market Wizards" or any of the MW series. You will find many examples of very diverse traders and trading strategies that they employ. The one constant is that they all are using strategies that work for THEM. Some of those strategies are 99% mechanical and need very little trader intervention, but when they do, the trader is the owner of the strategy and has developed it from the ground up, and can therefore change it to adapt to market conditions. Others are discretionary traders, and can't even describe specifically how they trade on a daily basis. You are aiming the arrow at the wrong target, guaranteeing that if you leave it as is, you will never hit the mark. I highly recommend watching this video--it's less than an hour long and contains none of the answers to questions you are asking, but all the right answers to the good questions: [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SdHlfsA0P4]Winning Methods of the Market Wizard - Jack Schwagger - YouTube[/ame]
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40-50 handles down?? Sure it could happen, but no objective reason for this certainly. Quite a few others thought this as well, hence the trap at the open to help add a little fuel to the fire. Shorts did not have a good day this week, so it's logical to assume that they are due and given the overnight market activity, many were easily fooled.
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MM and Siuya, dead on.
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Well, I exited half at 99.25, and took a BE on the other half. They bought seconds before the close to get their precious token positive day. S&P, up +0.04% ... congrats guys, the sheeple can sleep well tonight.
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Yes I saw it P, and I agree with you. I am short here from 00.75. But what does the pulling of liquidity really mean for you as you see it here?
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Said another way, the market is total bull shit this week, so anything goes. Maybe less to do with 1400 than with the lack of anything market-moving in the news this whole week. Or maybe not, I dunno.
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goodoboy, here's another bit of conflicting advice to add to the mix--while some type of approach is important, only a good plan is worth following. The market may not agree with your plan, in which case it would be foolish to adhere to it (I did this yesterday in fact). It comes down to reading what the market is doing. Early exits, both for winners and losers, if there is a good reason (and not based out of fear, etc.), are okay in my book. Bowing down to the holy temple of "the plan" may not be the wisest course for all circumstances. If one is able to detach himself from being in the trade and objectively see what's going on, then one does not need a plan--that's easier said than done of course, and we are all humans and can easily succumb to making poor decisions due to a bias while in a trade.
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Shorts win, and I don't get my pop... testing the LOD, quite a drop here.
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Who will win the battle of the bots?? I don't know, but it's like casino royale if initiating a position right now. Longs are positioned, shorts are positioned, and probably not much interesting will really happen, but risk has been managed and mitigated for me today and now I can only get lucky and win, or unlucky and not lose. Keeping things simple, we have a series of higher lows, and a 95.75 that is begging to be broken by 1 tick. I am betting on that.
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Anything can happen of course, but cash has come within 50 cents twice of touching 1400... maybe it won't, but it's so tempting.
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I am painfully boringly long from 11am. Scaled at the high, and did not add on the retest of 93.25. Just waiting now... I expect an extension of the range to the upside, hard to bet on a 6 handle range though it could certainly happen. A further probe lower would be very characteristic and I may buy that as well, but will be flat first to have a more objective look at things.
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As a supporting factor, the volume picks up (granted not a whole lot) at 3pm as shown here. I got filled on a few lots at 89.25, looking for that retest of 85. Could have gone either way, but given the time of day, and the fact that there is just nothing going on from noon to 3pm here, it's a reasonable short--inability to penetrate higher, must auction lower for demand, and 85 was a good target of earlier demand.
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Steve, I may have asked you this before but I don't recall. Is there any reason that you look at the DAX, instead of the Stoxx 50 or 600? The dax is much like the DJIA in the types of companies and also in traded volume: the mini dow traded 109K on Friday, the DAX traded 173K. Meanwhile, the euro stoxx 50 traded 1.5M, and the ES traded 1.9M. So, have you looked at these other indices which are more similar to ES in behavior and traded volume?
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Indeed. Attached chart shows a larger picture. Nothing fancy, but no surprise that 85 proved to be an important price to hold above, which it did on several occasions today. If you profile those four days together (not shown), you will see a VAH of 84.50.
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added one at 54.25 but all out at 53.50 ... not to be this time.
