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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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My fuzzies have cooled down a bit, but still holding the 95.
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I have warm fuzzies about this long. I did not have warm fuzzies about the other. Let's see if my warm fuzzy is a good indicator. I predict a little "dicking around" down here, but given the location I like this for a move back up to 1407--maybe not even today but I see this as a good local bottom.
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There's the 94, there's the capitulation, and location is good -- one LAST try for a long, no more after this for me. 95.00 is entry price.
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haha! Those lines are unwelcome guests!! I am out of my long at 1400, swimming upstream so far today.
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How about: "The Art of Culinary Trading"
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I have bought 1402.25, but do not have that "sunshine" feeling yet. 1394 looks tempting, doesn't it?
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bailed just below the low, 03.50
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I could lose money trading?? Why didn't someone tell me sooner!?
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long 05.25, with a pinch of caution
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Don't look now, but the overnight low is a to the tick 38.2% retracement of last week's low to the 1420 high... ahh, love those fibonacci traders who brilliantly think that 38.2 and 61.8 actually hold some special meaning in finance!
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I am now not so sure about short before long... 3 separate 1-ticks below, trying to break to new lows, and nothing doing... if it gets above 1406 and holds, I'll be a buyer from here.
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Damn this market, missed my order by 1 tick
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Ditto Tom, I am looking to sell 09-10s, with a cover and possible reverse around 01-02 ... I hope I haven't missed the boat.
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Good point -- it's naked in RTH only of course, as it was traded through Sunday and early Monday before open. Four VPOCs over last nine days fall within that 96-99 area. ...
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This is only true if you equate value with VPOC -- if you equate closing price at the end of the day with value, then yesterday's value is lower than Monday's. Looking at the overnight action, they could only muster up to 1412, so IMO market will trade lower for buyers. 1401 will be the point I'm looking at to buy first.
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Well I do not use a long term profile like that, in part because we don't have tick data for 2007. Thus, the volume at those levels is only an estimate. Add that to the fact that the eSignal continuous contract differs from the same IQFeed continuous contract, which differs from CGQ, etc., and lastly that not everyone even uses a continuous contract, but rather some splice contracts, and there are a multitude of ways to do that too... Just look at this SPX versus ES monthly chart. From the high back in 2007 we have referenced, the continuous ES contract shows an 87% retracement, whereas the actual retracement of the underlying index is 83%. Note also that the swing high in 2008, which on the index is 1440, has not been reached yet; yet, the ES IQFeed continuous contract shows it already trading above that... [off my soapbox now ]
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Sounds like your profile is simply building... yes?
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What do you mean they are changing?
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Looking to buy here at the lows guys, been away all day, but if it acts right I may scoop it up at 1408, if it doesn't plow through.
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Time Based Charts Versus Price Driven Charts?
joshdance replied to HighStakes's topic in General Trading
One more thing--consider the design principle "form follows function." Many people start with a hundred different options, and then eliminate some. Consider instead thinking about what you NEED first--in other words, what view of the market do you NEED to see? Then pick the chart that best fits that need. There are an infinite number of possibilities of charts, colors, indicators, etc.--many people want to make the chart that looks the prettiest, no matter how useless it is to them. Think about what angle from which you want to see the market's activity, and then pick the tool that best gives you that view. Only add a view if you need it; not because someone else has it and you think their chart looks "cool." -
Time Based Charts Versus Price Driven Charts?
joshdance replied to HighStakes's topic in General Trading
I also keep my trust 1m up at all times, as well as 5m. It's a trusty, "reality check" glance for me. My main 3 charts now are volume charts though. They show activity, and hide the time it takes to complete that activity. I do not like range bars, as they hide horizontal development which is actually something I want to be aware of, and only show vertical development. Of all bar types, range and renko bars eliminate the most useful information for me personally. I resisted volume charts for a while, mostly because I do like to see how much volume trades in a given time, but I now use a histogram that shows me this information as it would show on a time-based chart. The creator of constant volume charts is on this forum, maybe he will stop by and give some thoughts. You can find some entertaining arguments between he and I from about a year ago. The bottom line though is to use what works for you. Don't let anyone pressure you to use something that doesn't suit your personality and style. It's simply a personal interpretation of a market, and no one else's chart will look just as right to you as something you choose yourself. -
Well, open interest is not volume, so that's another matter. The important thing is that you have results that you are happy with. My contention is simply that tick volume in the spot market cannot be measured against anything for accuracy, thus, it's naive to say that it's more accurate than something which can be measured. It has no way to be measured, therefore it cannot be said to be accurate, as there is no measuring stick. At least exchange volume is regulated. I have no doubt that due to dark liquidity, there are ways to hide volume, but if that exists in a regulated environment, it must exist in an unregulated environment, probably to a much larger degree and scale. On the CME (and I'm sure most exchanges), block and private trades must be reported within five minutes, fifteen minutes, or an hour, depending on the product being traded, or a fine can be assessed. This is one way to hide immediate activity, but again, if that can happen in an exchange environment, I'm absolutely certain it is rampant in the largely unregulated world of forex.
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YT, I'm more interested in the "36 hours" part...
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I'm not quite sure what relevance this has here...? The author highlights one of my points -- that an ETF like SPY will have non-negligible differences with related products like ES, or the underlying cash stocks. If the take home message is "don't use indicators for SPY," well, I agree! But if the market buys SPY heavily, arbitrage WILL cause buy programs to buy the basket of S&P 500 stocks. The futures contract, the ETF, and the stocks that comprise the index are all inter-related. Someone may buy ES, and sell SPY to hedge, vice versa, and so on... SPY is not just some separate entity whose demand and supply do not affect underlying stocks, or the futures contract. They are all related, and all affect each other. For me personally, when I use volume analysis, I only use ES, and do not reference SPY.
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I only said that your so-called "tick volume" from a bucket shop doesn't mean anything, as it's unverifiable. Just my opinion of course, you obviously feel different and I respect that. Their volume IS their activity... how can they hide volume for 36 hours?