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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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The simple scenario is that the sellers are still in control, and will sell to new lows. Another scenario: very often when testing support, buyers will show themselves on the bid, as they did here, and then the push up is on low volume, leading many traders to short here in 88s. Low volume means low participation, so they think it's safe to reshort. Here it may be, but I've seen this play out many times where the real buying will start higher than 89, and now you have all the shorts from earlier, plus a fresh batch here in 88s, trapped, and they will want to retest 91s, 92s, ... This is only one scenario, but one that's quite possible here IMO.
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closed 88.25, hopefully I am not just a chicken. But why should it trade 1 tick below the low, and then come all the way back up here to 89? Looks like a good time for a long for me normally, so I close ... EDIT: let me rephrase: I AM a chicken, but we already knew that. The question above remains, if indeed we are to trade lower.
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Will they get on with it already ... sometimes what frustrates me is that they will sell 87 hard, 2 ticks above the LOD. Yet, when they get to 86.50, they back off and let it trade back up to 88. I understand that the market must auction a bit higher sometimes to find more sellers, but :doh: ... the word "bipolar" comes to mind. On a micro level I know there is logic to this, but just get on with it...
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The market thus far showing beautiful adherence to the profile, and reaffirms my faith in its usefulness. Compare where we have stopped here to where traditional support would say it should. I still feel this is but a pause, and that it WILL go lower to 83s, but it still demonstrates the market's respect for prior trade activity. Said another way, without a profile and just looking at 30 minute bars, people are probably saying "why the hell did it stop HERE?" Again, particularly due to my short position, I hope it will go test these 83s, but there's a reason why it was bought at 86s.
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In my view -- who is struggling more? Neither side is particularly dominating, but sellers have had the easier day to actually turn a profit, so they are likely more motivated to keep hitting that bid. Stop to BE (91.50) on 1, target is 83s/84s
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Reduced 1 here at 88.00 1 remaining, looking for 83.75
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Added 1 back here at 90.75, risk is 92.25 on 2, looking for a plunge lower EDIT: risk 92.50 .. will give it 2 ticks above the open and y-low, no more
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For the trend line lovers -- I know I'm one! :rofl:
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I had an original scale point at 87, so I just closed 1/2 there ... I will settle for 83.50 for the final target
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Yes, prior week -- damn these buyers, you gotta give it to them, when they hear "buy" they sure do it...
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A bit tumultuous today so far isn't it? Here's one of those "reality check" charts of SPX. If it looks like a duck, ... bottom line is, I think longs are toast. I hope so anyway, as it certainly looks that way. Lots of buying coming in around the 90s to 91. Who the hell is buying here, I don't quite get the logic, but then again I don't have to understand.
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shorted and stopped out, reshorted 92, looking for 87 and 83, but I'm slightly nervous that this buying strength is for real.
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out of this at breakeven on the rest.. yikes, vicious
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out 1 at 94, 2nd target 96.50 and will try to add one more here.. as to why this long, well, it didn't really seem to want to go down fiercely immediately, and it's a lot of selling just before the open, so at least should try to shake out some of them if it's going to seriously move down
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I've bought 92.00 for a return back up to 95-97, but will bail and look to short if much lower
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Similar to you here Tom -- buy zone is 86-88, next is 77 Sell area 95-97
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The buying into the close looked strong, but not the kind of strong where I expect to wake up to 1420, or even 1408, so given that, I suppose a more conservative target would have been in order. In globex, though I don't trade it really, I often observe that it will continue, as it did, to shake out any shorts (or longs as the case may be).
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These are live -- though occasionally I will throw one on the sim if I feel the need to trade but know it shouldn't be real money. EDIT: in fact, I'm trying out some different ways of managing trades including how I scale in or out, so I will probably be doing a lot of side-by-side sim stuff. Problem is, NT's "advanced simulation engine" can't seem to get things like commissions right. :doh:
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Well, 3 ticks from my target of 9.75 points overnight, and it reversed down, and just now taken out at 94 on news. Sometimes that's how the cookie crumbles... frustrating as hell when you're asleep and can't do a thing about it (except I could have set a trailing stop), but nothing to do now but start with a clean slate today. As an aside, 94 is exactly the place I would normally be looking to buy (though don't know if I'd do it premarket today), but I can't let a 9 point in the green trade turn into more than a point loss, so I had to cut it somewhere.
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For some reason this week I am being VERY impatient. I can't speak for you, but trying to buy was just plain foolish until the 92 traded and then came back up into 96s.... I just got lucky, would have gotten as good a price, without trying to bottom pick, and taken no heat. Let me rephrase--buying 95/93 was a good buy, where and when I bought it -- BUT, hope caused me to hold and all the while I saw that it was struggling too hard to get up. It should not come back to 95 even once, much less 3 or 4 times... when it did, I should have gotten out at BE or a little better, and waited. Then when 92 traded and it came back up above 95, it was a much more safe buy. I could have made profit, and gotten the same price. Hope is a dangerous thing. I am holding with stop at 94, targeting 1404.75. I don't feel particularly safe here, but will give it a shot.
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got the 1401! holding rest for 1404.75
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If I were shorting this, and I shorted at 1400, right at the 50%, etc., the market would in 9/10 cases give me some heat, just for trying to pick the top. I have faith that others here doing the same will receive the same treatment as me and that I'll get my 1401.. If not, it just proves "they" are out to get me :rofl:
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I am, and looking for first target at 1401 .. stop to BE on all
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Given the excess below and strong push up into balance, I am moving my stop to 93. It should not come back that far if it is to go higher. Next MAJOR resistance is 1405 IMO (*I mean above current balance, high of which is 97ish*). Maybe I have my bull-colored glasses on but we will see.
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90.50 is my stop -- 87.00 is almost guaranteed IMO if we break the 91.. This is not a good day or trade for me btw, just trying to manage the bleeding today.
