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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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Still hanging in, stop 02.50, changing my targets to 07.25 and 10.50
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Was also looking for some, but wasn't seeing any, thus the switch in position... targets at 06 and 07.75
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Yes I have the TM, but it was N who originally used that phrase a lot in it's full form, "anything can happen," or something similar, so he can share royalties from its use 50/50 with me. :rofl:
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Just reversed to long at 03.50, let's see if I'll get whipped around here. I have a good reason (in my mind!) for reversing so I'm okay with it either way.
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I dislike watching this instead of participating, but my numbers have not come into play today (we got 1395.75, my buy number was 94s) ...it turned at the 50%, which I usually pay attention to, but I was not convinced enough in this case to buy it. EDIT: I have sold here at 03. That was a swift rejection of 04 when it was touched. I will not give this much room to work.
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market just getting 'stoopid' here guys... want to close out the quarter with a bang perhaps?
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Don't you mean unconscious competence?
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Well this is for sure: the area previously rejected , 01.75 and +/- 3 ticks, is now being more accepted. That foreshadows lower prices I feel -- as it has felt bearish since the open.
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took a sim short a moment ago at 02.50, don't like the location so much so simming this one.. targets 98 and 95 edit: and closed this BE ... 10:07
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though the 01s held, chicago PMI down, market reacted bearish, revised CS up, market not exactly bullish so far.. Feels like a bear so far.
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There's your early chicago number ... must not be a very good one
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Pretty clear prices for me today: 1408, 1402, 1394, 1387 In terms of performance yesterday, it was a good day, however, due to my short position, I was sidetracked from my primary objective: It was a perfect area to buy, it turns out, but the short position and honestly the market behavior led me to consider 1383 as too likely a possibility to buy 87 outright. I did cover in this range, which was good, but I very easily could have opened a long position there as well, which I did not, but it was my original plan. So today I will stick with my current numbers, and do my best to execute within that framework, and try to not let any positions I may have affect that plan, though I certainly will let market behavior change it if necessary.
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btw Tom, very nice long yesterday, and good call on the 1400 N.
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channel ............
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still no trade yet for me, when it blew through the HOD I backed off... the fact that we are trading up into next balance does not make me warm and fuzzy about a short, so I will probably just watch but let's see..
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I see this return to 92 yet again as a bearish indicator. Why so many chances to buy here, if it's such a desirable price hmm? EDIT: .. BUT, the time is running short for bears. If they are to take it to 83 today (kind of a long shot now maybe?), it should be going now, and at 86 by 3:40 or so IMO ... takes time to erase that much support.
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I plan to sell one at 94.50, and one at 95.25 -- this plan may change, but that is the plan.
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I am concerned for bulls that time of day is not right. If it were 3:30 it would be different perhaps, but this seems like just enough time to peak out at 94/95, and then race back down to 83s (yes I'm still a bit fixated on that number).
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Do you think y-low's 92 will be a factor?
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The VPOC shift was to a price which was previously the VPOC already. To me when the market breaks to new territory, builds volume and gets a vpoc shift, it's a different scenario than simply a price that's been trading all day happens to get a few more contracts and does a "token" shift, just the way I see it anyway. I think delta around a vpoc shift will mean very little as a rule, as the market is too dynamic to present a pattern at such noncontinuous intervals. What I mean is that a shift in the mode is not a continuous function, unlike the VWAP, which may present more opportunity for this. Just my 2 cents, don't want to discourage you from looking!! edit: to clarify my point: a shift in the mode should probably be clear, in a separate area of balance altogether, to be significant, which this was not, and really has not been, all day. The market will be more concerned with things like tomorrow's ECOFIN meeting, tomorrow's China manu PMI number, as opposed to 500 contracts trading more at 1390 than 1388.50 or vice versa .. just my
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I would call this a "poor shift" :rofl:
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I meant to ask -- what is this?
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N and Tom (or anyone), would you say this is a "poor low" so far? You are masters of the "poor high" and "poor low" so I await your genius here...
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bigger picture profile, 2012 -- pretty clear (particularly upper two) areas of balance.
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The long-based scenario I mentioned should have already played out by now; another bullish scenario is possible, but the one I was proposing has not occurred, and it has taken too long to now occur. That leaves me officially neutral, and I could see it easily going either way right now. IMO this is where the market excels at having just enough people still short, and enough people now long, to screw one side REALLY well, or maybe even both if they try hard enough. What I mean is, earlier the market was pretty clearly short, but now a very good case can be made to be long, so it leaves that question in trader's minds. That's the dangerous zone -- probably a lot of people hold their position, long or short, around here at 88, so it leaves a lot of people in no-man's land.
