joshdance

Reshorting up here at 10, and looking for rotation to 07.50 -- tight leash probably here edit: added 1 more at 11.25, basis is 10.50 -- will let it work a bit but won't get too crazy

3 things: 1) location, least important: 2012 profile top of balance area, LVN, but big picture 2) location, most important: Top of the overnight consolidation range was about 09. Basically, look left, see last major supply where it fell pretty hard from, and that was a good location. Simple 5 minute chart shows it beautifully but I also attached a CVB chart. Note the strong drop after consolidation. Based on this, there are bound to be some sellers here again. Market loves to test the middle portion of this red box. 3) market action in the present: shape of the market as it moved up was too constant and linear to not pull back, in all likelihood. Look at a 500V chart and you'll see what I mean. A strong push up with consolidation is dangerous, but the sustained buying was bound to meet at least some selling, and all I was looking for was a move back to 05s. T&S was not wild enough to show likelihood of continued buying pressure without at least a 2 point or so rotation. Compare that to the action right now as it makes new highs... not as likely at these new highs for a good short compared to earlier, IMO.

flat at 08.50 gentlemen

push the button! [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PyT4H11maeM]Push the Goddamn Button - YouTube[/ame] :rofl:

Also bought 05.75 just now tom, looks like a decent spot to resume up. edit 10:50, just scaled at 07.25, looking for 09s

Scaled 2 points here at 06.00 EDIT: and the rest at 05.50 .. flat now

Thanks Tom -- regarding the nvpoc, I know it has not been touched in RTH, but the overnight session following that day, it tested, and has not come back since then. Do you find that overnight test of any significance?

I sold here at 08 just now, with another coming at 08.75

How so MM ?

Whoa steve! Relax man, why so touchy?

If I hear... "setup" ONE more time... This is a perfectly valid word to describe an opportunity to enter the market. I get that. But it has taken the front seat of priority and has become the #1 word for people who seem to want to dumb down the market to the extent that they spend every hour of the day looking for "setups." One time a friend of mine and I took an opposite market position. He asked why I would take that position, and what it was based on? I said something like, "well, the market broke below this, and the volume was substantial, and the tape felt short," or something along those lines. I asked him what his was based on. He said, "It's based on probabilities, and a setup." I can't articulate without using the exact words, but suffice it to say that he was implying with his words he used at the time that his "setup" was far superior to my seemingly idiotic and baseless premise for my position, because he had--wait--a SETUP. Oh, and he had tested it thoroughly. Meaningless, but bully for him. It's this kind of thing that I hear traders parroting, and sometimes I don't think they realize what they're even saying. "Find one setup and that's all you need." Really? And how many professional traders have a list of setups on their desks called "The Boomerang" and "The Dragon Tail" and "The Doogie Howser," and trade them faithfully every time? The market, to me, is more than just a bunch of setups. It's alive, breathing, and will kick your setup's ass from here to Timbuktu, especially if you insist on "sticking with the setup" every time you see it. The market loves to punish people who are lazy enough that they are not willing to learn how to trade, but who insist on learning "setups."

If I hear... "price action" ONE more time... "Price action" has to be the biggest buzzphrase used by traders who know just enough to think they know what they are talking about, but who in fact usually don't have a clue. "What type of trader are you?" is bound to bring out many "I'm a price action trader" answers. Have you noticed how many vendors and marketers are using the phrase "price action" these days? It used to be cool to have fancy indicators. Now it seems to be cool to just have price bars or candles on the chart, and even better, to do a little jabbing and poking fun at anyone who has anything other than the market's price on the chart. It's as if they worship the almighty "Price" and bow at his feet. The phrase "price then broke below..." irks me almost equally. Guess what guys? "Price" doesn't do anything. "Price" is not an entity. Now, the market can move up or down, but "price" cannot. Do you understand what a market is? Are you sure? Well, it's not the same as "price," and it's an important distinction.

There are a few phrases and words that I cringe when I read and hear. These cringes are minute in intensity and time, because I hear them all the time so I am virtually numb to them at this point. But here are two... And I have friends and awesome traders who use these, so this is in no way reflects my opinion of THEM, even though the phrases annoy me. This thread is meant to vent just a little, but is written mostly a little tongue and cheek and should not be interpreted in any truly serious way. So let's have some good clean fun, and hopefully we will not argue too much, as the tone is meant to be light

On the Day Trading Emini thread, Negotiator faithfully prepares and posts his analysis almost every morning. I do not post everything I do to prepare, but I do prepare, and I often post ideas, some of which turn out to be in line with the market, others not. If you have some specifics about preparing for the open, I for one would love to hear them. I have my own way of preparing, but am always looking for ways to improve. I have not seen you post anything premarket as far as scenarios or ideas, though maybe you have and I missed them. But I'm not interested in specific ideas, but in process.

Steve, I think we probably agree here more than not. Anyone who reads the Day Trading Emini thread will see many of us during the day posting in real time our market reads, and many of us are uncannily accurate much of the time. We can do this because we "see" and can anticipate what is likely to happen based on what is in front of us. Sometimes we are off, but on balance we are in the flow of the market. Did I mention that I/we do this real time, and not after it's already happened? At any rate, my point was that trading is not about knowing, or being right, but about aligning oneself with what is likely to happen, given the current state of things. And I find it much easier to "see the legs" than to "see it coming." One is in response to the market, the other is in anticipation of the market. I prefer to respond, rather than anticipate, though in truth a bit of both are important IMO.

As for the "better pro/am" indicator... The notion of the "close" of a tick or volume bar meaning much of anything is illogical, as the open of the bar is arbitrary, since some users will start a new bar at the start of a new session, and some will not. Some of those who do start a new bar will start it at the globex open, some at the RTH open. And since not all data feeds, even the good ones, will be exactly the same, there's no constant to determine bar closes. Giving a meaning to the close of a volume or tick bar in isolation is dangerous. Additionally, as tick size generally corresponds with volume size, doing analysis on volume in tick bars is mostly nonsensical (though it makes more sense than doing it with volume bars). Since volume is generally held constant, analysis on this constant does not make sense. Again, it makes SOME sense, as tick size does not equal volume size, but they are usually pretty highly correlated.

Any number of things z07 -- check over the in the "Day Trading the E-Mini Futures" thread here on TL and you'll see that I was also very bearish at the same time, and if you read the posts you'll see why: selling right off the open, very little market buying, mostly selling. Secondly, early release 9:42 chicago number was bearish, and market sold strongly. 9:55 revised michigan number above expectations, market tried but did not respond very favorably. That alone tells a large part of the story. News does matter; or rather, the market's reaction to news. Basically, who in the first half hour had the tougher time, and who had the easier route? Lower lows, and lower highs. Very little market buying. Adds up to a reasonable possibility of a good short doesn't it? You kind of answer your own question here z07 -- he has the ability to read the market (apparently; I don't really know). So, who needs a signal? He did not know it was making a pullback. He didn't KNOW anything more than anyone else watching. The recurring theme here is the word "know" -- he didn't KNOW anything. He saw that the market was moving down, and he was on board. He exited when he thought the market might be prepping for a reversal, and it turns out he was profitable. You'll notice that he did not short at the very top, and did not exit at the very bottom, but caught a chunk in the middle. Unfortunately, what you seem to be seeking is some special knowledge, information, or interpretation that can only come with repeated observation of the market. Even those who are very good still work in the realm of uncertainty; nothing is guaranteed or known. As for the "better" indicators, or any indicators, the danger is exactly in what you seem to be doing now: giving your focus to them, instead of what the market is actually doing. Barry no doubt knows how to put his own indicators into context. You, however, along with many who buy them, no doubt, have little context surrounding them, and thus you are looking for the "signal" from a blue bar, a cyan dot, or something else, when in fact the answer is in the context itself.

OK, 8% of the day's volume just traded in 60 seconds (131K) ... nice. IRT was about 15 seconds behind on this one.. lol

haha!! Actually, my apparent disdain for trend lines is really more amazement at how effective they sometimes are. The fact that I knew a TL break had occurred kept me from re-entering long, and the fact that it retested the line twice and held told me not to buy again at 03 but to instead wait for 02 for the scalp. So, while I seem to hate them I actually find them useful. What I don't like about them is that they cannot be replicated with accuracy due to any of the following variables: 1) whether or not the user shows white space or not between bars 2) RTH / ETH session lines will be different 3) though time-based periodicities often yield similar trendlines (the same line on a 5m or a 60m will usually roughly line up), it will not be the same on non-time-based bar intervals such as volume or range bars

got out 03.75, a tick below that all-important 04.. done for the week guys

It doesn't look to me like we have the juice to push this up much higher, but then again this is the 'mini so wtf knows? EDIT bought 1402 for a scalp

Trend line was drawn on the 1m at the point of the arrow, and all 3 touches since then line up perfectly. Nothing special and it happens every day, just goes to show how stupi... I mean, how some traders use lines to make their trading decisions. (j/k trendline guys)

I have closed 1/2 at 05.50 for +2, and will look for 07.50 on the other most likely, unless it really screams up, in which case I may try to hold for 10.50

Yes -- even if trading itself were emotionless, what is the point of all of this, if not to feel happy? Or make money, which leads to experiences where we feel happy? Or grow ourselves, for satisfaction and, yes, happiness.. It looks as though it will simply grind up, or just come back down and not make higher highs. I don't see a rotation to 02 leading to higher highs, for example. This is meant to be chased up. When there are no rotations, it motivates buying higher, which leads to even less likelihood of deeper rotations.

Stop is BE (03.50) I may consider half at 06.00, will just see -- risk free at this point so I can afford to let it work.If I'm out BE, then I am.. if I get something, then it will be a nice feeling going into the weekend... after all, isn't the point of all of this to feel good?