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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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I am also considering a buy here at 94s, not quite convinced yet though, may wait for 93s. The market seems to be going into "easter" mode... nothing objective, it just feels that way for some reason. edit 11:52: these heavy bids in 93s make me wary and think a move down is imminent.. almost double the bids vs. offers
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nice job with the longs guys -- reversing to long after the failed BE short at 92 would have been ideal, but switching bias quickly is a skill acquired, and I have not acquired it yet, not consistently at least. From a technical perspective, I understand why we are up. Overnight dipped below and came back above support from last week. But fundamentally, the unemployment number was merely in line with expectations. Spanish bond yields continue to rise today, and overnight markets were all very weak. I suppose anticipation is for a better than expected NFP number and perhaps the market is positioning for that. But this market today has me scratching my head a little bit. I suppose that when the market said earlier that it wanted to be in yesterday's range, I should have just said, "ok, you're stupid, but I'll go along with you!"
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I closed this trade at BE just now... even if it works out to the down side, it was not as planned and I won't risk any more here as I can't see that I would open a short position at this moment, so I'm out BE. EDIT: wow, talk about good timing... I did not expect the market to be this way today, and I'm thankful that I shorted where I did instead of lower, and while I only took 2 points of heat, it felt like a lot more due to the struggle by the shorts to put up much of a fight so far. Nice job!
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First target 89, second target 85.75 .. hmm too optimistic here.. or maybe totally wrong direction??
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Have sold 92.25, and will sell 93.00 if reached.
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Looking to sell anything in the 92-93 area, depending of course on the activity there. It says it wants to be in yesterday's range, but I don't believe it...
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Closing at 94.50 on 2nd half for 4 points on this portion. It's been a good day and I need to relax my mind a bit, probably done, going outside for some fresh air.
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Ok, settled for 93.00 instead of 93.50 on first scale. Stop to 90.25 on balance. Not crazy about volume here at 93 though it is relatively what I would normally expect.
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Giving this one more try at 90.75, first scale at 93.50, 2nd optimistic target of 97s
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I dropped the ball on this one big time. I bought 90.75, and bought another 1 tick below the low. Then when it came up and traded inside the prior range, I closed at BE which was 89.75 I believe. I did not see the strong buying I had hoped to see, so I got out. 92.50 was my initial target which was just hit. Fear of losing already-secured profits is the culprit here, even though the premise was pretty good I think.
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Thank you for your kind words CYP. I am considering a buy at 91 and then 90. Was looking at 92 but I am not quite convinced. Many traders are seeing a nice big bear flag here, quite prominent on the 5m, so maybe shorts will give it another go.
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Yeah I feel the same way, but to our credit the movement down this morning was not exactly, shall we say, exciting. Sure, it got down, but this was not a fierce selloff that strikes fear into the heart. Even if you had sold 95.25 after the first minor rotation up after the breakdown below the low (around 10:15am EDT), a good entry point, you only would have 4 points down to the low of 91, then endure a 3 point rotation up. This is how the market usually operates, yes, but still, with the stair step down movement and then a sharp up movement, adding when you're already afraid of losing what you have is easier said than done... not saying it's "right" or "good," but it is human nature and what we struggle with day in and out. Given the location of 86-91 being a buy area for many people, it's not an easy short to add to, even with all the fundamentals behind it.
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I closed the last 1/2 at 90.50 when it couldn't break the 90... Based on this first chart, delta bouncing back very strongly. Perhaps this foray into high 80s was what is needed to motivate the buyers. The lower end of support is 86, but the midpoint of that consolidation area is basically 88.75. Often that's all the market needs, a test into the consolidation, not necessarily all the way to the bottom, which would actually be bearish IMO. For example, notice how Thursday 3/29 tested into the Thursday 3/22 consolidation about halfway as well. Could it be the same today?
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I sold 92s based on this premise as well N, and took off half at 90.75, but really don't want to see it come back up above 92 at this point.. would love to see that 88 down below. My trading has not been terrible but not very good today either, hard to post so many trades here, I will back off of that and you guys will have less of my crap to sift through.
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One of the new things with 10.5 is the ability to have multi-day and multi-session time periods. For example, I can have a "2 day" chart or a "1 day" which is 1440m, for example. The chart had "1 day" and when I went to change it I typed "240 [letter m]". This unfortunately changed it to 240 months (20 years per bar, so 2 bars for the full life of the ES contract )... IRT did not like this for some reason... To change to a time periodicity you are supposed to type the letter 'i' (lower case), so I should have typed "240 i" .. oops! :rofl:
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closed 91.25 for -1.25 ... Sometimes I will do this, try to play the rotations too cleverly and wind up just being wrong, when I should simply be holding short. EDIT: that being said, I am long one more try at 90.50, with a 1 point stop. Any long, incl. the last one, is on with 1/2 a position by the way. EDIT: okay, I'm out 90.00, enough foolishness for this morning
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Just bought 92.50 for 95, tight tight leash GS says same thing after minutes, that they still expect further qe... not that either Gross or GS gets to vote, officially anyway
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spx 30m objectively-drawn trendline
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Moving my stop to 96.25 for a near BE on 2nd half if it should come back up here. Would love to get 88 but may lower my expectations depending on how it acts if it breaks to 91. EDIT: closed 93.00 .. IRT crashed and I had to rely on my backup NT chart, and based on what I saw I closed.
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Tom, it's a term used in VSA/Wyckoff that I usually don't use and really don't like that much, it kind of came out of my fingers as I typed, not my head Basically, if there were supply at that level, then a test below should reveal this and more downside should follow. But a 1 tick test below without much volume and pop back up signals no supply. I am not a VSA trader so the terminology and explanation may not be quite accurate. But, call it what you will, the principle is the same.
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covered half at 94.50, now I can leave my stop just above the open and see if it can hit my real target of 87s
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sold 95.75 here in anticipation of break guys.. let's see if it's for real
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closed other half at 98.25, flat now
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scaled 1/2 at 97.50, rest for 99 stop BE at 95.75... Premise was no supply test 1 tick below the ON low...
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bought 95.75 down here for a scalp up to 99
