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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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:rofl: .
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Okay, I closed 1/2 at 78.00 -- stop is 76 on the rest, looking for 81s on the rest -- kind of a hard target as there are several areas of note here.
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Too much struggle to get lower for me guys, so I closed for a tick loss, and actually reversed long. I usually don't do this but I think it may be a good idea here, long from 76.
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Morning all -- I am just watching so far, but have sold 75.50, looking for a retest of ON low at 72.50 and if this breaks, 69.25 -- not sure I am with the right side at the moment given the positive delta we've had here in the last 15 minutes, but I'll ride with it for a few more minutes here and give it a shot.
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Sorry Mystic -- my post was intended to be sarcastic, and is exactly the opposite of what I would actually recommend.. guess I didn't make it clear enough :-/
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Sounds like a great idea. What software do you use to manage your ram disk? I saw one from DataRam that is free up to 4GB. Do you auto-save the disk every so often--basically, how do you preserve the data so it's available when you restart?
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You're right, the answer is to look for a setup. Keep looking for it, and when you find it, you won't ever have to really do anything, just trade that one setup. And it will work consistently for many years. That way you won't ever have to do anything else to be successful. Better yet, find a handful of setups and that way you have several of them, and all you have to do is always follow each one, no matter what the result. The key is to stick to your strategy, always, never deviate, no matter the result.
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N, what is the primary benefit of a SSD for your trading application--to reduce latency? There are things which could potentially slow down my system during heavy market activity, but I wonder if my system performance would be greatly enhanced by a SSD? There are many barriers to low latency -- the data feed itself, internet connectivity, calculation of custom indicators, etc.
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In a nutshell, learn that for a while, ES will be your daddy, and you will be its bitch. You will never be a master of it, for you are never in control of it; you can only participate while others hold the reins. You will at some point experience the awesomeness of being in tune with it, and not feeling like cannon fodder. But it is always greater than you, and you MUST respect it, no matter how successful you may become. Do not pay anyone a dime for their opinion, there's far too much good free advice available. Some bad free advice too, but not much worse than what most will charge for supposed wisdom. I'm not sure what "evidence based" analysis is... why 3 handles? Why not more or less? I am not anti-indicator, although I do not use derivatives of price/time/volume, I find it easier to use them directly. Why MACD or RSI? Here's the simple test: if you can't off the top of your head explain how either of those two indicators is calculated, you shouldn't have them on your chart. In fact, if you can even correctly identify what the inputs are for each, you would be way ahead of 90% of the others who use MACD or RSI. If they are there because you have a very specific reason for use those specifically, then good for you. Otherwise, why are they there? And if you don't understand why those are on your chart, it doesn't make much sense to add more does it? You can't verify everything. "Confirmation" does not exist. By the time something is "confirmed," everyone knows it, and the market does not allow everyone to be right. We often blame lack of patience or lack of verification, when in fact it's more simple: you have only been trading ES for a month, and I don't know how long other things before that, but it sounds like not a long time. Give it time, get to know ES like it's your new best friend, and then you'll be in a much better position to profit from it. When does it move? How much does it like to move? What does it care about?
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Below are some of the many cliches found in your article. Did you really say anything new? Since you claim 95% of all traders lose money, could it be that part of the reason is that the same old things like what you posted are accepted as fact and followed blindly? Interestingly, in your 5 tips nowhere do you actually mention learning how markets operate. I suppose it's kind of implicit in your tip #1 where you talk about having a plan though. I actually agree with much of what you said; definitely some kind of plan or approach is a good idea. And I agree psychology is important, as is money management. Both are necessary, without a doubt. But I see so much of people these days focusing ONLY on their psychology or money management, when they really just don't understand how markets move. When one has confidence in his read of the market, the psychology and risk management will come much easier. My main point is this: all of what you said above is quite important, but it's not really applicable for many traders. We all know those people who go overkill on the quality of their gear in sports. For example, the baseball player wannabe who goes and buys brand new cleats, a shiny new bat, a bucket of balls, the nicest glove money can buy, joins a local league, and does all of that stuff. Yet, he hasn't learned to throw a ball, or swing a bat. New traders go and buy a brand new computer, several monitors, pay for high quality data and expensive software, buy and read a bunch of books, attend seminars, write a business plan, write rules, and do all this stuff. Then they sit down and watch the market, and have no real clue what to do next. So, they buy or develop a strategy, which doesn't work. So they assume the problem must be in their mind, so they go all in depth with psychology and how it's all about their attitude towards money and some childhood event, and so on. Yet they fail to give attention to the most important thing: how markets work. Sure, psychology is important; but when one is so new to trading that he doesn't get the basics, then all the healthy mental state in the world will not make him profitable.
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March 6 low to March 27 high 50% ret is 1377.25 Will be interesting to see the mood of the closing in these last 30 minutes Tom, good for you!
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Pretty much..........
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haha Certainly 97 or so is possible in these last couple of minutes, but given the way it's moving, and the reaction at 94 (bearish IMO), and given that the market will only have 10 minutes to get up there, I'd rather take my money and run... did not smell like what buying into the close should smell like. To try and be objective: not enough buying on the way up. Bids did their job at 90/91, but it takes more than bids to push like I wanted it to.
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I do not like the volume reaction here at 94s, so I am flat for 3.25 on the final unit at 94 even.
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Unfortunately we only know this information (expansion or contraction) AFTER the rotation has occurred, which means that we will only have a confirmed bias AFTER we know basically whether it rotated further down (giving a short bias) or up (giving a neutral to long bias). Or am I misunderstanding what you're saying?
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Very pretty picture! You are the person who originally turned me on to using those cool tools to annotate charts
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In the spirit of "don't be a dick for a tick" I closed 2nd unit at 93.25 Stop is 90.75 on final unit (BE), and will see if we can get a late day rally here to the mid/upper 90s. I'm not convinced, but it's a free trade, so will let it go. Target is "officially" 96.50.
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Well, I scaled off first portion at 92.50, now I am risk free with a stop at 90.25, 2 ticks below average entry price. 93.50 is next target, followed by higher hopefully. But if stop is hit, I still made a profit. I must admit that today's market is a bit different than yesterday's market. It is moving strangely--just my label for it, maybe it's heaven to some. But it's not my ideal type of behavior. Smells like a bull to me, but then again I am long and probably biased, and have not exactly been in sync today either so we will see.
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I'll take my loss around 89.75, but if it goes north I'll scale 92.50, 93.50, and 95.50 - 97, depending.
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bought here at 91 ......
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From earlier about 110% (IIRC) of 20d median volume, now to 89%.. market has slowed to a crawl. 92 - 96 is VA today, 92 is the basement for this bullish run IMO, and it should provide some buyer support, or is that simply too obvious? Wake me up when we get some volume.
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A profile does not tell you this. In fact, nothing tells you this. A profile shows prior activity, much in the same way that price bars show prior support and resistance. It does nothing more than provide a structure. You must use the context of the market, IMO, to best determine what is more likely to happen next. Each trader will use different tools to accomplish this. The thing is, there are only so many market-generated tools you can use, which is a good thing. Perhaps, but understand that the mode of a distribution is not a continuous variable such as the mean. This alone makes probabilistic analysis based on it suspect at best. Better to understand the concept of acceptance, versus the "law" of acceptance as "decreed" by a shift in the mode. You don't need a vpoc shift to demonstrate acceptance. Just my
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I did my part, the rest is in the market's hands my friend Market doing what it does best right now -- consolidating, drawing in more on both sides, and with each move up and down, giving each side hope that it will be "right."
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Don't like the volume so will move stop to BE. Looking for 92, but stopout much more likely now. Needs to go soon. EDIT: well, I'm out at 95, I moved stop up a bit but decided just to close manually. With more of a position on I would have scaled @ 93.75 and could have moved my stop to 96s which is where it needs to be, but I didn't, so I'm out.
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Just sold 95 .... 1/2 normal position
