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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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bought 72.25 ... looking for rotation to 74.50 and will scale one there exit point is around 71
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on the yearly profile, 69.50 yes They are both significant IMO, just in different ways. One is the kid in school who no one wants to be friends with. The other is the kid who is the most popular. They are both significant and both more noticeable than an "average" kid in class, just in different ways.
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holding above 72 is bullish, but ledge of friday through today's cumulative profile at 74.50 which is also today's open, which might find sellers. kind of a no-man's land between 72 and 74.50 IMO. edit: quite a surge in delta from this low...
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no quick rejection below Friday's low, but no hurry to sell it off either so far
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By the way, I'll just say that I was totally hypnotized as the market designed -- I was looking to short, but was looking to do it at 79.50 -- I thought there was a bit more upside, hence my long. My original thought was short, but the location did not match what I expected, so I fell into the trap... small loss but I was dead wrong on this one.
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bah, out for a 2 tick loss 75.25
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morning all -- bought a 2/3 position at 75.75
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Quite a busy week we have ahead of us -- earnings kicks off tomorrow after close, goog is on Thursday along with regular PPI etc., China GDP Thursday evening, then UoM CS, Bernanke (who will probably say something about unemployment/jobs situation), and JPM and WFC earnings on Friday. Whew!
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Yes but you don't know that we fail to get into it until about 3:45pm. Until that point this can be just a minor retrace before new highs. The market was relatively bullish all day, though the buying pressure was a bit dim and it was not one-sided. That being said, I was being stubborn, and I could see at the time that I should have gotten out at 3:50 for a BE, but could not bring myself to click that "close" button! I was even short earlier, and had I positioned more than 1 unit in place, I probably would have simply held the 2nd unit for lower and would not have considered a long so strongly. Still my #1 problem, and a big one, but at least it's clearly identifiable. It's not like I was totally fooled--I was just totally foolish in this case! The important thing is that it did what it did, not why it did it; for sure. I should not care why.
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A great day turned into a very average day with this... did the opinion of the market change that drastically that they would not sell much at all at 81, yet now they will sell heavily at 77?
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reasonable place for a long, bought 79.75, 1/3 position only EDIT added at 79.50, 3:42 target 82.00 and 83.50
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Rotation looks promising so shorted 81.25, 78 is target EDIT: out at 79.75, good enough for me for a rotation.. look at that volume per range would have scaled but got in very small position
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Current market activity is my least favorite type. Puny grinding up, easy to get run over countertrend, and because little to no rotations, no real good opportunities to join the trend either. 79.50 was an hour ago, and it's only 2 points above that right now.. no real benefit to getting in this either way, and sorry I tried earlier.
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reshorted 81.50, looking for 78 still. edit: closed 82.25 for -3 ticks .. CYP, your 83 looking very likely.
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Closed this at 81.50 when it touched the high... 2 tick loss on 1/3 position, not a biggie... There you go, very nice -- 78 was a good entry for a long but I missed it and would have already closed anyway.
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Give yourself some credit my friend, I doubt as if that summarizes your approach. You have had some very nice trades and you shouldn't sell yourself short (no pun intended )
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Sold 81, half / third of a normal position due to low probability; pretty small stop as well.
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Volume here at 81s and subsequent move is bearish to me, though I'm not quite ready for a short yet. Maybe I'm flat wrong, but I am cautious of a long at this point. If I see further weakness I will consider a short. Market has been relatively strong today given the circumstances, but it is still in a state of relative balance IMO.
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Hopefully the live trade walk-throughs are helpful, and demonstrate both good and bad behavior and mistakes made, for any readers to learn from. I hope it's more helpful than posting a chart at the end of the day and saying "here's the obvious trade I took," as all trades look obvious and good at the end of the day. However, I can't explain everything in detail at the time, so to try to be as helpful as possible, here's my premise walk-through: + Since 10:14, when the market failed to break below 74.50, the sentiment was pretty "confirmed" for me as bullish, which was when I reversed to long. I had shorted 75s but when the market could not break the 74.75 on the second attempt, it "jumped" and showed a strong enough buyer aggression that I wanted to be out of my short and long instead. There is a quick surge of selling activity; this was their chance, and then you can see if you look at a tick-based chart that the offers basically pulled, and a retest of the 78 was likely + I exited half at 78, mostly due to the surge and lack of immediate followthrough. + I held onto half at a 76 basis, and finally gave up on it around 11:15 at 75. I should have given up on it sooner, but N talked me into holding on it, so it's his fault clearly + at 11:14 there is a surge in volume, possibly stops from long positions, followed by a lackluster attempt about 4 minutes later to 74. From there 74.25 held, and I became a buyer at 74.50; probably important to note that I am okay buying again here because of what I see in the volume, and also because of the tone of the day -- relative balance, not looking like a strong break up or down. + As the market inched up to the 50% of the 78 to 74 move, I became a bit concerned about the viability of the trade as there had been very little positive delta to that point. So I scaled a unit off for a point. + 77.50 was my target because it was essentially the top of the balance high for the day, so 2nd unit scaled there + Following this, though my target was 81 originally, the volume is so low today (64% of median 20d) that I expect the market to remain relatively balanced, and when volume surged again (a relative surge mind you) to 80, 79.75 was my quick exit, 5 ticks from my target. I tend to get out early sometimes, but IMO it doesn't make sense to risk giving up 2.5 points here (my stop would have been 77s) to gain a possible 1.25.
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Out 79.75 here on last unit, time for lunch!
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Got 77.50, now one unit left, will let it try to break this balance and shooting for 81. Stop 75.25.
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I actually just scaled a third at 75.50 -- and stop to rest is at 74.25, so no risk here. Looking for first two targets now -- 77.75 and 81.00
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I will look to scale at 3 places if I'm in sync with the market: 77.75, 80.50, and 83.00. I will exit at 73.50 with a loss if I'm wrong here.
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I canned the 76 long at 76. Then I bought back a full position at 74.50, will only give it 4 ticks to work.
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Aware, and gave it a couple more ticks of room partly for that reason -- 76 happened to be the "area" because it was my actual entry price. But often I will massage it a bit as it gets there.. I move my stops a lot, which people say never to do, but which I do as the action calls for it. So I still have 1/2 on now at 76, but I dunno, not very inspired by this so far. May close here soon in 77s.
