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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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Right, there was no heads up that he was speaking, but they announced the key news event (attached)
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How did they drop the ball today?
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Perhaps the market will actually test the 00, but a rejection of 99.50 which has already printed would suffice as a test in my book. Tricky area up here and must be cautious. A failure to hold 93 would set up a key test at 89s. This failing, would make 78 much more likely. Lots of scenarios here but my primary points of reference are still 00 and 78. If the lid is blown off and 00s do not hold, I am doubtful that 06s can provide the supply and 28 is next to the upside on my chart. 15-20 was a key low volume area, which may be swiftly rejected, but otherwise, 28-30 should print.
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El Presidente in 20 minutes. Market taking a break and maybe needs more fuel one way or the other, and Obama will likely deliver.
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Completely irrelevant. Much more important is Obama's speech at 11:35 am ET (IF it has anything to do with fiscal cliff). All eyes on politics now, including eurozone to some extent but particularly US. Fed issues not on the radar at the moment, and beige book is almost always a non-event.
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Bloomberg reports correctly here: Economic Calendar - Bloomberg Released On 11/28/2012 10:00:00 AM For Oct, 2012 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual New Home Sales - Level - SAAR 389 K 369 K 0.387 K 0.360 K to 0.401 K 368 K
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And prior revised down about 20K, and months supply also higher and prior revised higher, and ... just a crappy report.
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I agree -- but even the remarks that sparked the initial move off the 40s was pretty much "non news" -- "we are making progress" means jack in politics (as evidenced by where things are now). The market is really paying attention to this fiscal cliff bologna, and is quite volatile about it. But the important thing is that the 42 area was a very key technical area that the market needed to hold. And, the 06s were also technically good for a short. So, whether it's nonsense news or whatever, the technicals provide the road map. This is my initial downside target.
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If you mean ease of install, it would take me longer to download, install, and inspect the program than to do New->Shortcut and type it in the box Plus, I don't like the idea so much of external programs locking input; I'd rather let the OS do that natively. Slow day but to be expected. Doing well on the long side, even though it's boring. How's it going across the pond N?
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Is there an advantage to that versus creating a shortcut to lock using: C:\Windows\System32\rundll32.exe user32.dll,LockWorkStation and then assigning an icon and a keyboard shortcut to it?
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Market content to balance here. I was a buyer at 20, as the market found support at yesterday's VAL.
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I should say 7-day balance -- US markets closed monday and tuesday, but that's when the low of the week and test of last week's low was put in, and it counts, just ask anyone who got filled there! Remind me, "SOC" ? True, it could not test 28, but it was not sold at 11s/12s as it had been a lot last week, nor at 15s, and finally 20s did not hold, and the market never even made it back to 18. I guess only time will tell, but at the time it was clearly buy or sit. Today so far, the market seems to be searching for liquidity, but the fact that the VA is currently 21 to 26s, overlapping yesterday's, is not a bullish sign at all. Only shorts so far today, but I suspect we get some rotation here and will be surprised (though not shocked) if we go below 18.
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How to handle Thursday On a market note, I am surprised you see yesterday as short covering. To me it was clear strength, breaking out of an 8-day balance. The heavy buying came in before, during, and after the market broke out. Sure, it stalled, but I think this is due to NFP more than anything. It did not even rotate below 18 yesterday.
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The thread is called "The Close of a Bar is Meaningless," and the first few posts point out that the settlement at the end of the day is an altogether different story.
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I would say so, catalyzed by your last unintelligible 27 posts in 4 days (out of 65 posts). Rubbish to sort through, and a waste of server space.
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Starting with yesterday's release, ADP is using a new data calculation method that is supposed to give a much closer reading to the official number.
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Patuca, you still do not get it, and it is a very simple concept. BH sums it up nicely:
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Flattened at 44, too early, but it finally broke!
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I got short half again at 50.50, my original bail point, and added again here at 48, and must ask... WTF is up with 47? why won't they just let it drop.... c'mon guys..:missy:
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I took a globex short, scaled in to an average of 52.08, and just scaled out some here at 48, but the market gods just shook me out at 50.50 before we could see 44s. I normally do not trade globex either, but it seems that the RTH session is often simply a liquidity filler for when the real moves happen during Asia and European sessions. Sometimes the US session moves, but so often it is simply diddle back and forth, for a nice Tokyo and Hong Kong open.
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Thanks sdoma, I also wrote a custom indicator that computes the X-day median volume and range, but does so at one minute intervals, so I use this same measure, only in 1-minute granularity instead of 15 minute. In many of my old posts on this thread I mention the relative volume for the day so far, and this is how I compute it.
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Triple bottom at 48? A break lower is looking better by the minute.. Still interested in buying 44/45s, likely to get the chance.
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Hello all, haven't checked in here in a while, thought I would say hello. My low buy area is 44-45s, and my high sell area is 62s, but if the market trades 55s which it looks like it is trying to do, it presents an interesting potential opportunity ahead of 62s, 55 being Thursday's VPOC, almost Friday's VPOC in the lower balance part of the day, and where the market settled Friday at 55.50. Also, Monday Oct 1 VPOC which was 48.75 was Wednesday's high, Thursday's low, and has so far supported the market today as well. Buy opportunity there, but my analysis leads me to conclude that it is better to wait for mid 44s/45s for a larger swing back up to 62. How is everyone?
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If your friend told you to jump off a cliff, would you? :rofl: Just kidding. As SPX, ES, SPY, etc., are all arb'd and theoretically correlated 100%, you will see essentially the same thing from an intraday perspective. However, the cash closes at 4pm, and you may find things simpler to look at from a day-only perspective looking at spx without the overnight action as well. From a longer-term perspective, there is quite a difference in the two due to contract rollover. For example, the 5/19/2008 ES high of 1373.50 on my back-adjusted contract corresponds to an actual high of 1440.24 on the cash index, a huge difference of about 5%! So, for referencing support/resistance levels that are more than one or two contract rollovers ago, I always reference the cash to see what's really up. The bottom line though, is, do you find use in it? If so, use it and thank your friend, if not, then don't.
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"Multiple failures to make a new high"? The market slammed higher hard and fast, and it tried one time after a couple of minutes and it's a failure? No, I do not think so. It has to breathe a little after such a move up off the open... failure does not even come close to describing that, IMO.
