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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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It should not be trading back down here IMO so I have re-shorted 70.75, again small position and tiny stop.. won't post anymore, too much :spam: for you guys to read. Will look to bank some at 66 if this is indeed a move down coming. As we have a HL though, it's possible we have seen the LOD. But it does not feel that way. Will add one on a break below 69 if it happens.
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As the 70 failed to hold, I have shorted 1/3 position 70 now, with 1 point of risk. More down to come seems more likely at this point. But.. (see sig) EDIT: oh well, it was worth a try. Had a short scalp that netted a point after my major trade today so I consider it "house money" although I know it's not really the reality.
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Good advice I think in general -- is that how you quantify (to some degree) your prospects at at countertrend trade? Opening type, and following activity?
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I'll either breakeven at 70, or be out at 74, no risk at this point. EDIT: out at 70 BE, no harm done, reasonable attempt IMO, and may try another long if it looks right.
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My favorite, you shouldn't have! :pc guru: I've opened a 1/3 long here at 70. Only a point or so of risk, as this is a low probability attempt but about as high probability of a long as I have seen so far today.
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The VPOC is the statistical mode of the volume-weighted distribution. The VWAP is the statistical mean of the same distribution. They are both typically interpreted as a way to measure "value," they just do it in different ways. My thought here is that if it can hold 70 on a retest, I may be looking long. Maybe.
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Understood karoshiman -- I too get distracted sometimes so I understand. I only meant what I said as an invitation for anyone who reads to feel free to post; 90% of the material here is posted by about 4 or 5 people, so it may not seem to be a welcoming environment if one is reading from the outside. I intended to extend an invitation to anyone reading to feel free to participate, if they are inclined to do so, and not feel like it's a clique or closed type of group. N is the creator of this thread and I know he intends it to be an open environment.
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It looks fishy at 71 initially so I'm flat, and may look to re-enter short later.. I'm also dead tired so I may just go back to sleep, which I never do.
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lol yes that is a danger isn't it? I did what I would normally do and scaled where I was supposed to, and will see if it will give me more. I don't think it should really trade back into yesterday's upper balance, so my stop is 77.75, a tick above BE on the remainder of the position.
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Having a much better day so far -- hopefully I can snap the losing streak at 3 days. I'm short from prior to Michigan, and got first scale here at 73.75, see yesterday's profile for obvious reason why on this area. After last few days feels good to be on the right side again. Anywhere in yesterday's lower balance may find buyers if this level currently fails to hold, specifically I'm targeting 67.
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Thanks buddy :thumbs up: Lots of visitors here the last couple of days I notice, hope some of you will jump in and post!
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N, I've been looking for a reliable earnings calendar that gives an accurate time of the release. May I ask what you're using here?
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I took my loss and am doing more productive things with my time... kind of disgusted with this market, sorry to say. I know it's my problem, but it's just all such a farce that I don't even want to look at it until next week. Did you know that Yellen, the vp chair of FOMC (I think that's her title) said yesterday evening said that ZIRP may well likely continue through end of 2015? I know it doesn't matter, but these super smart morons baffle me.
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Reading an article on Google earnings later today, and read this: "Google stunned Wall Street in January when it reported earnings that fell below consensus estimates. No surprises are expected this time." lol.. I think that by definition a surprise can't be expected.. N, what squawk do you recommend since the one I listen to is, in your opinion, rather worthless?
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I only pay attention to confirmed reports, I don't care about that other stuff really, just thought it was interesting.
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Oh yeah, also heard talk of higher than expected China GDP which will be released tonight. Heard this about half hour ago or something I think.
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over my wire: "market talk of a large hedge fund covering a large short position on emini s&p" ... as usual, unconfirmed, just talk
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Any idea what's driving this? Higher unemployment, lower PPI..?
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Then again, this picture on the chart looks like a flag, which means we must buy! By all means, if it looks like a flat, a pennant, a dragon, a head, shoulder, adam, or eve, that's what counts!! So who knows? :doh: :rofl:
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Yes -- failure to build any value above 69 today leads me to make a best guess that buyers will be sought lower, and the next logical place is in the 53 - 60 range. Obligatory move up after hours to take out any weak holding shorts in the upper 60s and tested to top of today's high vol balance area, and back down, leads me to feel the odds are in favor of down from here. However, see signature below...
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Google: Discretionary or System Trading - Are You a Discretionary Trader or a System Trader?
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gosu, thanks for your always no-nonsense and to-the-point posts, I appreciate them. I can be quite outspoken and direct (tactless?) at times, and I actually value when others spare the feel-good words and get down to business. BlueH, I am realizing you have quite a good sense of humor and I really enjoy reading your posts as well, they have made me chuckle out loud, which is hard to do. ------ Regarding A/D, TICK, and other measures of market breadth... I recommend to the OP that you work from from the bottom up. What do you NEED? I've said this before, but consider that form should follow function. Can you define what TICK represents? How about uvol or dvol, or advance / decline? I used to have mini/friendly debates with a guy who constantly was using uvol and dvol, but who did not know how it was calculated. Personally I find it to be a redundant indicator due to its calculation and useless to me, but if one were to use it, I would expect that he would know what it actually meant. So consider what you need to see, and then add those things to your screen. No need to add a bunch of stuff, and then take away what you don't need.
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I utilize the window menu multiple times per day, so that would have been the first thing I would have checked -- open charts. But now you know, and it sounds like your problem is solved, so good for you I have shorted 1/3 position after hours here at 67 -- I am placing my bet that we see 54 before we see 75.
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Very funny about the trading room BH I respect your views. But your evidence is purely anecdotal. I do not know anyone personally who is unemployed, or who has told me so. Yet, the BLS tells me that 1 in 10 are without a job.
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ha! Here is what I see. Yearly profile on the right. Today, a failure to break above the top of the balance area at 70 which we traded into yesterday. Low volume area of rejection around 47-48 should provide some buyers, as well as the high volume balance at 40. But ultimately the 1320s is an area which should provide a very strong test. This gap is the result of the January NFP number. If the market can break above 70 and can hold it, 77 to 82 should provide the next selling opportunity. Going to reset a bit this evening, and get back in sync tomorrow. Two losing days in a row now.
