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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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I have taken a small short position here at 82.75 for a retest of 80, and if lucky, lower. I'm only giving it 5 ticks as it's a relatively low probability trade, but if it works out will be a nice trade. This area (83ish) on the profile both today and yesterday has been quite important. edit: will probably breakeven this if it comes back to entry at 82.75 ... oh well, won't get back to posting every trade, so good luck, silence on the airwaves from here.
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Evaluating the "quality" of money is impossible, IMO. Smart money, dumb money, is all a big distraction. The "smartest" money buying the ES may only be to hedge a much larger opposite position in another market. The intention of those putting the big bucks cannot be known, and it cannot be assumed that the goal is to actually have the market go in the direction of their position. All we can see is their activity via volume. Intentions are not know, and do not matter. Just my
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I do have that tendency but do not do it as much as I used to. Yesterday I was long and after scaling had a BE stop at 73. The market ticked to 71.75, and then began its move up. At that point I was waiting for a pullback to enter but the strength was so much that I just watched all day. Not saying it's good, but it's what I did.
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lol, this is true -- but I am more profitable today so far than I was yesterday -- days like yesterday are the worst for me.
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Yes slick, I've heard from him (and others) as well -- can you give an example of how this scenario occurred at another time? The problem I've had with this idea is that markets are not normally distributed; so, we have to look for time periods to draw the profile such that they are distributed, and it seems a bit arbitrary to me. So, looking for some clarification on this concept if you have some ideas.
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Why does the market need to form a normal distribution? On what time frame are you talking about, today only?
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I still prefer it to yesterday's sleep-fest .. at least it keeps me awake.
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Since you are going for posting trades in real time, you should know that your time stamp is 12 minutes behind when you actually posted. You posted a short at 84.25 when the market had just plunged to 81.50. I'm not saying you did this on purpose, but you should know that it looks dubious. I can't imagine it taking 12 minutes for someone to type what you typed, but maybe you are just the world's slowest typist.
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Good pattern identification Obsidian. Now, the question is, can you: - recognize these in real time, pull the trigger, and exit with a reasonable profit? Pattern recognition is relatively easy (particularly when you already know the result :wink: ) -- the difficulty, the reason why so few do well, is the inability to execute. That should receive a much larger portion of attention than recognizing patterns, generally speaking, IMO.
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The sellers just struggled WAY too much below 82... three pushes, only a tick out of each. As long as 83.50 / 84 can hold, I don't see why we can't get 86.75 or even 88.75 pretty easily.
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Yeah I get that, but not sure why it needs to be in IRT and not a web browser. Doesn't matter anyway, personal preference I suppose. What I would like to know is an "official" web site for the results of the spanish bond auctions. I looked at their central bank's site, but could not find it.
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I bought 82 the last time, and when the volume insanity ensued at 84 on the next attempt (that's a "reaction" for the record), I exited half there and was out at 83 on the rest. A bit cautious about buying at this point...
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Here is the MW chart for spanish yield curve: ES 10Y Govt Bond Benchmark, 10YR_ESP Bond Quote - (ICAPSD) 10YR_ESP, ES 10Y Govt Bond Benchmark Bond Price Could not find the yield on bloomberg, but at least MW has it. Not sure why having it in IRT would be much benefit anyway.
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Could not find it, but for these things I usually use bloomberg .. faster and cleaner SPANISH GOVERNMENT GENERIC BONDS - 10 YR NOTE Chart - GSPG10YR - Bloomberg Italy Govt Bonds 10 Year Gross Yield Chart - GBTPGR10 - Bloomberg
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Funny you should ask: Telvent DTN Forums
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Agree with your premise here, but curious as to how you define "low volume" -- in relation to what? Stats show that the volume was at the very least "normal" -- it was well above its 20 day median volume.
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Well, the impact of volume on price is really all volume is good for, so the market's reaction is the primary thing. If lots of volume traded in a narrow range, that would be significant, and need not be immediately followed by a sharp move in the opposite direction. Likewise, a move to new highs on very light volume would be significant, even if it moves "a few" ticks instead of none at all. These are just two examples, and may be significant or not to different people.
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In the meantime, I will look to be a buyer. Yes, we are off of last week's high just here at 88.50, but it's not a strong enough rejection to make me think the buyers are quite done.
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Unusually heavy or light volume, signs of buyers struggle. In short, something different from what we have seen all day long that would indicate sellers are more active than they have been. Preferably, signs of rejection as evidenced by a sharp movement down in price.
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Then again, 94 looks interesting as well, based purely on price.
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I will be looking for a reaction at 90 / 92.
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You MUST be old, because we have already taken out yesterday's, Friday's, and Thursday's high! :rofl: Just kidding my friend, welcome to the thread.
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Actually this looks like the first good short opportunity of the day so far to me.
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84 the best location to short so far today. Check out SPX, and profile for 4/12. Good rejection below 84 .. should get a rotation here of some kind.
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I completely understand the pressure of posting trades online as I do it every day, and I make some utterly dumb trades, some yesterday in fact. In this case though, not so much Tuesday blahs as WAIT for the market open.. after such upside, it's almost a given that at the opening bell the market will at least TRY to push it up. It's so easy to see from a third party (like myself), when I'm not in your driver's seat as you are. So, not a criticism, just an unbiased perspective.
