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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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guys, I am a buyer. At this premarket support I bought just now 77.25, and I'm sorry it just popped up too fast to post as it happened. scaled one at the high here of 79.25. I am not expecting it to pop like it did yesterday but would be nice if it did.
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This is a very good point. What I had to do was completely "let go" of any need to feel right about my projection or idea. It's just an idea. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, if I'm right, I'm right. What's at risk is that others may feel I don't know what I'm talking about, and if I'm wrong enough, guess what: they're right! So, why try to hide behind a premise that I'm brilliant if I'm dead wrong? People will think what they will think. If I'm right a lot and my ideas are in tune with the market, I'll appear to be "smart," and if I'm wrong a lot and I'm out of sync with the market, I'll appear to be "dumb." Both are neither good nor bad, just what others think of us. And it truly matters not what others think of us if they are seeing the truth. Someone consistently wrong with ideas or calls is simply not in tune with the market. Someone consistently right is in tune with it. An interesting case are those who can never be perceived as being wrong, so they only talk about how obvious things were, after they happen.
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I look forward to hearing your specific, clear ideas about the market. Welcome to TL.
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The market was at 82.50 or thereabouts just before the news. After the news, the market sold off to high 74s. The market then traded all the way back up ABOVE 82.50, and breached yesterday's high, and was finding support above 82.50. A very good case can be made for the market accepting bad news, shrugging it off to trade above the point where it was prior to that bad news, and then continuing upward after a rotation. This did not happen, but it is hardly "ignorant" to take a bullish premise when the market trades below yesterday's low, back above it, and up to the prior day high, all well AFTER news. Market participants have many motivations, and I'm not presuming to know them all, but it's pretty clear that if the market had really been bearish because of news, it would not have traded up to 86s as it did. I mean the 8:30 and 10am ET reports by the way, not "news" in general.
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Ah, makes sense now :-)
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No offense to the last 3 posters, but geez, can you guys read? Read the thread from the top.
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No news, opex tomorrow, I wouldn't hold my breath.
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Obviously something which was not reliable in this case!
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Well, out for -5 ticks, this is why I put on half a position. Not much skin here.
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Let me rephrase: I consider the overall, larger picture. I consider the fed's stance on monetary policy. I consider payroll and other numbers that investors care about. However, I do not worry about it all, as I have no influence over it. Further, ideas weeks and especially months ahead is utterly useless, for me anyway. Today's market changes its mind on a whim, and any whisper of panic out of a bond auction, payroll numbers, and anything else causes the market to change on a dime. I see little use for monthly hypothesis which will only be a guess and take my focus away from the more important day-to-day picture.
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Got 71.50, half normal position as I do not want to get steamrolled -- only giving it 5 ticks or so.
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Holy Toledo. Quite an honor Db, I learned so much from reading your stuff and I hope you will visit more often.
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I see, I will have to grab the book and read a bit of this. I am looking to sell 71.50, or thereabouts, if it looks right.
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Not familiar with this CL, what is the gist of this idea? On a side note, will be interesting to see what the media attributes this to. I'm sure they will say poor econ numbers but we all know that's simply not the case.
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Was just thinking, it looks like it's either ready to race back up, or begin a real fast slide down.
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No worries mate. And if you read what I said, I didn't say that I was worried. I said there was "plenty for people to be worried about." Personally I have little skin in the "buy and hold investment" game, and it's not something we can control so I worry very little about the overall state of the economy, as I don't have an investor's perspective. It's one reason I like being a day trader. Can I beat the market? Maybe, or maybe not; but either way, I am in the driver's seat, in control of when I'm in the market and when I'm not.
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Slick, you were right about the LOD not holding. Nice insight, and I hope you have enjoyed your time on the course! I also left for the last nearly 3 hours, and the chart looks quite a bit different than when I left. The 79 area I mentioned as a buy area earlier provided a nice 4 point bounce, but that's it.
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Yes sorry I was not clear. Attached is the profile from the high on 4/2 to the low on 4/10 .. it's the area shown by the gray lines here that I was referring to, formed by the balance on 4/4 and 4/5.
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Good buy area, 78-79.50 Let me rephrase -- BEST buy area. Which means, may not get there. If we go below there, watch out.
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Are you suggesting that the low of the day has not been put in?
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And I'm out 85.50, just under yday high. Sorry, won't post any more scalps like this.
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Back in long gents, 84.25, small relative position
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wow, 71% higher volume than 20 day median so far in the RTH session.
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May need to auction lower IMO, and may buy at 77ish if it looks right. 78 is key though, and I'm not sure it should auction below there at all. EDIT: guess they're okay paying up, nevermind.
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Your "Trader IQ" should go up at least a few points for that! I'm loving this action by the way.
