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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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And I'm out flat at 68.75, a tick from scratch on 2nd half. Don't like the failed BO above the high. I like the long at 68 but missed it, I will look to jump in here perhaps, though vwap a few ticks below is tempting to wait for.
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Call me chicken, but I'm out 1/2 at 70.50 instead of 72
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AAPL down today, and its 4.39% of weight in S&P 500 ... isn't it about 20% of the NDX? As AAPL goes...
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Plan to scale 1/2 at 72, then 74.
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I'm not a "geometry" guy and I don't usually pay much attention to measured moves and the like, but this extension would coincide nicely to fill the gap from last week. I'm looking for 74.
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Good point. 66.75 is mid currently, could be a classic R becomes S, and VWAP will be about a tick below that too. 66s could be a good buy.
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btw, the premise was that overnight stayed above yesterday's range the whole time. That alone gave me a bullish bias towards the open. The move down just before open and into yday's range had the look of a shakeout. It was struggling to push up, but struggling even harder to go more than 4 ticks below yesterday's high. "Official" gap fill at 62.75 complete helped too. Found support at yesterday's high twice after the gap fill, and knocked on the door again just before news, but even with ho-hum numbers it had the juice to push north. As of now I'm still looking to buy, but not quite as clear a frame of reference as before, as we are more "in the air" above yday's range. I would not be surprised by moves either way at this point.
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I bought just before the news, and scaled one as it looked a bit cautious, and had 2 units left, but accidentally scaled out one at the same place I scaled the first in a classic fat finger moment!! :crap: So, I only had one left and got flat at 68. Execution mistakes suck!
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It is trying to get back to 68 but dicking around while waiting for news (or so it seems).
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Market seems to be waiting for CC and new home sales data before committing.
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The main problem with holding a runner early on is that you essentially have to have a trend day for it to work out the way you want, and if it's not, you'll miss other opportunities. So not only might you not get your profit from it, but if it's a "normal" kind of day (not the MP "normal") then you are missing trading opportunities because you are psychologically vested to that last contract when normally you would trade opposite direction and get some other stuff if you were flat. Perhaps you could try essentially what I did yesterday with a good result -- hold a runner only which is already in profit and only at the close, if it seems a good play. When I do the runner thing through the close, there's no more trading, and if it goes, it goes, and if it doesn't, it doesn't, but either way I'm not missing other opportunities because I normally wouldn't be trading at that time. edit: And meant to say, from what I see you talking about runners a lot, maybe you are expecting too much from the concept -- remember, a runner is a "long shot" and by the very definition of a runner, you are going to, more often than not, give up lots of profit. You can't have it both ways. Just as a trend follower always misses the start of a trend, and always, without exception, gives up at least 20-30% of the end of a trend, the runner will always have a tradeoff.
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65.75 is good enough for me here, higher very likely but no need to risk giving away 5 in the money to get another 2, it's bumping on this trendline I mentioned earlier, was going to be my original point for a 2nd scale anyway.
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I'm holding mine from 61 for 68 ... stop in place for BE, and got off 2 out of 3 at the high when it just wouldn't budge higher.... blah. Despite big gap down, bids held well overall today, negative delta on the day.
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68s anyone? I'm looking for 66 first, key level on SPX (Thursday low and very long term point of interest) and a TL retest on ES.
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Ok, I get this; but as a trader, at some point "interest" must turn into a "premise" or, if you wish, a "trade idea," or a "tradeable hypothesis" or something along those lines. That was the angle I was coming from.
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I realize gosu that I may have misunderstood your premise. So, to put it simply: at this point in the day, your AM congestion has materialized, and your premise that one extreme of the AM session will be tested during the midday has come to pass (61.25). Now, at this point what do you 'know'? We have congestion, and extreme being tested. What now? It's very interesting learning from others this way as the day unfolds, good forums we have here.
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Well I hope you "know wrong" this time, as I am still long :rofl: Thanks for taking the time to write and answer my questions by the way.
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Well, the HOD held to the tick, I scaled at 60.50, and I am nearly taking heat as my entry price of 58 just barely was not touched. Stop is a tick below that, not feeling fuzzy but at least no real money is lost if it goes south here. 58.50 is a "ledge" area and so far it has supported, but not convincingly so yet.
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Did you 'know' that before the open -- due to the gap? Or is this something you have discerned during the AM session? Is there a specific criteria (perhaps the large gap) that makes it more objective that this is the single caveat scenario?
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gosu, if you're around-- given your way of modeling the market, your general thesis is that if the morning high of 61.25 is taken out, then that means the low of the day is already in at 54 -- is that correct?
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That is what I'm hoping for as well. Hope is what it is, because I'm in it with no control except to exit at a point where it no longer looks probable. 62, test of pre-open balance high, then 65, is what my premise is.
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Out for -4 ticks ... enough of this chopfest for now, taking a little break
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Back in short, 56.50 ... time for it to go if it's going to.
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Well I scaled 1/2 at 57, and holding the stop at 55.50, BE on the other half. High probability of being taken out, but no risk and only potential reward up to 59s for my target.
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I watched that video several months ago, and unfortunately it is not that specific as far as actual methodology. The basic thoughts I got from that video are that we want to allow others to engage in price discovery and assume the risk. When they do, their footprints (volume) will be identified, and THEN we assume less risk by initiating trades at those (high volume) areas. That's about it as far as I remember though maybe there was more to it. Very logical, powerful stuff, but it seems not much different from using volume profiling, instead of a traditional market profile.
