joshdance

Ah I see, you ARE a master of the auction! I hope you buy the unfair LVN! I look forward to your reply when you have time to make it, good luck with the car.

I am taking a sim short here at 97.25. We are at the upper end of the two day pre-NFP balance. We have come 10 handles on just over 300K contracts. 97.50 is the 2nd mode of the March distribution, and it has received some volume attention here. I will add to this at 1402, and will have my stop at 1406. I am targeting 1390.

The market since the fed euphoria of 3/13: makes a normal distribution, but boy is it ever gappy and not too pretty.

Talk about an ugly profile...

I was typing my post as you wrote this, similar thought processes on this it seems.

I love it when people challenge views. It's very healthy and one of the reasons I spend time here on TL. Not for the agreement where we all feel fuzzy, but for those times when I hear dissenting opinions and get an opportunity to re-evaluate why I do things. First of all, regarding delta: Delta is something that I sometimes use, and sometimes don't. As a result, I have considered on more than one occasion simply throwing it out, as least as it pertains to a cumulative delta amount for the day or other period. This last trade is one of those cases where it simply tells a story, and the conclusion I drew from that story led to a trade which was a loss for me. I also have dug deep into exactly what it means for a transaction to occur at the bid or the ask, how it's reported from the exchange itself, and have come to the conclusion that the actual delta calculation itself is subject to interpretation. Some people will calculate it based on upticks and downticks, instead of bid/ask values, and that adds another level of uncertainty. But let me get off of this tangent and back to the point. Regarding the main point: By your logic, it would seem that because currencies are king as far as traded volume and actual money flow goes, that all markets are subject to the effects of correlation to these currencies. However, we know that each market is separate and distinct. Crude oil is its own market, though it is certainly affected by the value of the dollar and euro. Likewise for gold, silver, live cattle, pork bellies, and all other commodities and equities. The market cap of the S&P 500 is 12.7 billion USD. This is larger than the entire market cap of the four largest non-US stock exchanges combined: Tokyo, London, Shanghai, and Hong Kong (about 11 billion USD). The ES is the most actively traded derivative of this index, and the most heavily traded futures contract in the world. We are talking about huge world economies, and the ES reflects as perfectly this index as any derivative can. Does the value of the euro, dollar, yen, etc., have an effect on US markets? You bet, but you seem to be saying that it's a function of size traded, and I just don't think that is accurate. After thinking about this for a moment more, I think a simple picture will explain my general view. The attached chart shows the euro, and the s&p. I hope you don't think I'm insulting your intelligence by posting such a simple chart with diverging trends, but I think it does basically speak to my point: all of the eurozone problems have taken a toll on the US market, but it does not really matter that trillions per DAY changed hands in the currency market. What matters is how the US market stands on its own. It experienced growth in the last 6 months, while the burden of eurozone debt has failed to drag it down with it to the same degree. In fact, in my opinion, each market stands on its own, regardless of intermarket relationships. Does the eurusd in some way affect the price of oats? Certainly, as oats are denominated in USD, but there are more important factors in the price of oats, and it doesn't matter that the volume traded in oats is essentially zero compared to currency volume. Same for other markets. Hopefully I have addressed your question, and I would love to hear further discussion regarding it, particularly how you disagree, as these are all great topics and questions, and I am very open to changing my mind if I hear an argument which is more logical than my current one, as I have no skin in the game about being right here or anywhere

I was looking along those lines this morning: And unfortunately, we only traded 83 and so I did not feel good about a buy from the start. We never got the actual test, and to me it did not seem to be a real "test" ... I must say that of all days, this is one of the ones where I am almost completely out of sync with the market.. will only sim trade for the rest of the day. It does happen, and boy does it ever feel crappy. I had my plan, and really didn't follow it, and that's really at the root of what I've been so out of touch today.

Mine was one, 90.50 :doh:

I really wouldn't be. I used it for several years, and have written more than my fair share of MQL. Your argument in favor of MT4 seems to be largely that they have succeed as a business in getting their product into the hands of a very large percentage of retail forex traders. I agree completely with that, and see all of its benefits in this regard. Also, I always did appreciate that MT4 is lightweight and fast, uses little memory and the little that it does, it does do well. However, from an actual trading standpoint, it offers very little other than being free, and providing access to free data. Probably the most pronounced of its deficiencies is the inability to do two very important things (to me anyway): + Define trading sessions: This should be basic to any charting software, IMHO. With MT4, your bars start and end according to your broker's time zone. I have seen many users downloading 4 different broker's versions of MT4, so that they can see a 4 hour bar which starts at 12:00, 1:00, 2:00, and 3:00. If my broker's daily bar starts at midnight EST, too bad; never mind the fact that no trading session in the world starts and ends at midnight EST. This also means that you cannot hide certain periods of trading. If I trade from 8am to 5pm BST and wish to hide post lunch NY trading, as well as pre-London Asian markets, I can't, as far as I remember anyway. + Define custom bar periodicities Never mind the fact that non-time-based periodicities are not possible (range, volume, tick, P&F, etc.) -- I can't even create minute-based multiples (2 minute, 3 minute, 90 minute, etc.) with MT4. It's possible that with MQL some users have implemented ways to do this, but I really don't want to trust some 3rd party code to perform what should be a basic functionality. So it may be free, and have free data, but you really do get what you pay for in this case.

Just does not seem to be enough buyers here willing to pay up, I will take a small short at 88.50 Delta could pop up at any moment and may very well do that. But as long as it's as negative as it is, and since we are at the top of the range, it is a reasonable short for me, win or lose.

Well, I'd say that the delta is showing medium selling strength today so far. Anytime it has a peak to valley of about 40K contracts it turns my head. Today's it's been from about 10K up to about -14K down. Not domination, and the fact that we are several points higher than the open shows me that buyers are clearly interested. But as a percentage of volume, I'd have to work it out. I'm just looking at 79% of "normal" volume and asking myself, how do we expect to go higher with this? And I don't think we can. Good question by the way, it makes me think, always a good thing.

This market is F-d up today, clueless as to where it wants to go. So after news, we have: (1) Weak initiative buying above yesterday's high (~ 10:05) (2) Very strong selling at 10:30, but with buyers aggressively holding the bids at 85s (3) Strong buying above yesterday's high (10:45) Failure to follow through on all counts. I say the market is clueless, but in truth it's me who is clueless today. I accept that.. but the market has no real conviction. The volume at 10:30 really confuses me though... seems that buyers are willing to support higher, but 83% relative volume, pretty objectively if I may say so, means no real big players here so far.

N, responsive selling in 87s a few mins ago, bids held (initiative buying). Not clear but bulls have upper hand... you agree? So buying above y'day high was weak, but strongest selling push so far met with bids. Kind of unclear.

I am looking to sell but not ready to pull the trigger. This is a weak, non-OTF push above the balance, or it appears that way anyway. 76% rel volume, weakening volume on the way up. Also, have not seen a strong rejection yet, (or a rejection of any kind really), so the bulls have it so far. But I don't think they have it enough to go where they are trying to go.

If it breaks above 88 with enough juice for 92.25, I'll be looking to buy 88s. 87/88 is kind of my upper pivot reference, 80 is my lower.

Forgot to mention my sell scenario: if the market sees responsive selling at or slightly above yesterday's high and top of balance at 87/88, will look to sell that. One of the weaker openings I recall from recent memory. Pending home sales at 10am.

So far, market does not show a willingness to immediately break out of April balance. The test of the VPOC of the current month balance (82.75) has just failed to produce enough buyers to hold firmly though it may still provide support. The delineation of this upper portion of April balance is conveniently yesterday's RTH range, with the low at 80. Plan for open today: * If open above 80, buy if market shows support * If open below 80, sell on a rejection of 80 or 82.50, preferably 80 * If open above 82.75, buy if market shows support

Missed the long from 82 as I was stopped 82.50. Following the pattern here and shorted 87 even, scaled 1/3 at 85.00. If there is a real move down today, it will be now. Otherwise, plow on up IMO. Looking to scale 81.00, and will hold one. Will be out at 87, BE on the balance, as there's no real certainty here in this market now.

I tried a buy at 83 but stopped, then bought 81.75 so and scaled some here just now at 86.50. Hoping for a stronger push up, but that movement was all Bernanke, not always so clear but this time it was.

I was signing off, but wanted to see if you guys are watching Bernanke. Great example of market buying solely on his comments, good stuff. "Remain entirely prepared" .. said it about 4 times... for further accomodation. Up goes the market... Targeting 88.50, then 92.00 Those were not prepared comments btw, those were impromptu and in response to a question. Would definitely want to have this pressco up if you're in the market.

Dead here, see you guys later.

So Fed collectively sees raising rates a little sooner. Big whooptie do.

Flat at 84.50............

Added 1 short @ 83.50, will stop out of all at 84.50

Will stopout at 84.50, breakeven on the remainder. Finding buyers at the lows here but still unable to clear Friday's high. If it does, see no reason why it should not at least retest highs, possibly 92.50