Mysticforex

Hi Jimm, Welcome to Traderslaboratory. I don't listen to what other people say, However, If were looking to short GBP/JPY I would watch my charts. This is what I see now for a possible short. On the chart I have 2 TLs, The upper one is from the 1 hour TF, the lower one is from the 4 hour. On a candle close below the TL on the 1 hour chart, I would look for a test of the TL on the 4 hour chart. This set up is called a "Two Trendy". What makes it more interesting is tha the 1 hour TL is right around Mons S3 and the 4 hour TL is a bit above the Weekly Pivot. On a candle close below the Weekly pivot, on the 4 hour chart, 12829 would not surprise me. It's a little too early to commit to that, but I would take the TL to TL short if I was awake/around to see it.

21st Century is based in OZ. This might be a good place to start: Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC)is one of three Commonwealth government bodies that regulate financial services and is the single national regulator of Australia's 1.2 million companies. The ASIC: * protects investors, superannuants, depositors and insurance policy holders. * regulates and enforces laws that promote honesty and fairness in financial markets, products and services and in Australian companies * underpins the strength, growth and international reputation of Australia's financial markets * maintains a public database on Australia's 1.2 million companies to provide certainty in commercial dealings, and * works with other financial, consumer and law enforcement bodies in Australia and internationally.

Daryl, It's Friday afternoon here. What say we follow this chart into next week?

Daryl, The main thing to remember is that this is counter trend trading. I don't use any oscillators, but there is no reason why one could not. Say start looking for divergence on a MACD, or Stoch. I use the 62 EMA and the 200 SMA for visual reference only. The 800 SMA is the base line for the deviation. When the 62 is above the 200, and the 200 is above the 800, it is obviously in a trend, even if the Radar Screen tells us that price has been away from the 800 SMA for 1500 candles ( 3 standard deviations ) So we do not enter a trade just because price has been away from the 800 for a long, long time. But, when price has been away from the 800 for more than 500 candles it means we can start looking for a reason to enter a counter trend trade. I mentioned earlier that I like to see the 62 EMA between the 200 and the 800. SMAs. The cross of the MAs has no significance for me, it is not a trigger. But when the 62 is between the 200 and 800, what is the Visual Reference telling us? That the pair is no longer Clearly trending in whatever TF you happen to be looking at. It may just mean the trend is pausing before continuing, or it may be time for a reversal, again, just on whatever TF you are looking at. A reversal on the 15 min TF might just look like a long lower wick or shadow on the Daily TF. And yes, in answer to your question, this is a single TF method. If you start to use it, have some success, become more comfortable and proficient with it, you will see how a setup might be able to "Blend" into a higher TF. But let's not get ahead of ourselves... first, baby steps. So let's look at this chart. It is the GBP/CHF 15 min. The Radar Screen tells us that price has been away from the 800 SMA for 715 candles. The 62 EMA is above the 200 SMA with some nice separation I might add. My personal preference is enry on a candle CLOSE below a TL. On this chart if/when a candle closes below the TL, the 62 would probably be between the 200 and 800 SMAs. The TP target would be the 800 SMA which at this time is 245 pips below current price, not even visable on the chart. Some people may not feel comfortable aiming at a moving target. ( remember the 800 is moving towards price, slowly, but moving nonetheless ). There is no reason why one could not use a substitute target, say, a Fib point, a PP, or a strong psychological number. Just make sure that your reward justifies you risk, and use good MM. Here's the chart:

Yes, one thing we can be sure of is movement from left to right on the chart Lol. ok, kidding aside, I would like to see a candle CLOSE below S1, even on the 15 min TF for a test of S2, which would be in the area of my original TP.

5 minute Bullish Diversion. So perhaps a small pop up, but I am still thinking a test of 9900.

Hi TraderWill, Just took a look ay Kaufman's on Amazon. Think I'll add it to my personal "Must Read" list. Thanks.

Hi Cryptictrader It is free ! You can register online here: http://traderslaboratory.com/newyorkexpo

Just tested both.... Telephone ADSL provider: Download. 3.04 mbs Upload. 0.36mbs Ping. 33ms Cable company provider ( Time Warner - Roadrunner) I think it's fiber optic Download. 5.67 Upload. 0.49 Ping. 15ms

I have 2 ISPs, 1 is ADSL thru my telphone service provider #2 Is thru the local cable TV provider. I don't get my TV though the Cable provider, just internet. The reason I have 2 ISPs is because I live in a rural area. In the Winter, lots of Winter storms knocking down tree limbs and such. Ditto Summer Thunder Storms. I have never had both go down at the same time ( tap wood ). I also have an 8KW generator in the event of power outages.

Cont... Several years ago one of the members of our trading group, Gary Fluker, who happens to be a genius with spreadsheets, decided to start crunching some numbers to determine on average, how long price is away from the 800 SMA. After about 1 year of entering data on literally tens of thousands of candles, He came up with an average and the standard deviation. The "Radar Screen" in the upper right hand corner is the latest version of of a few we went thru. This works on all Majors, The faster moving pairs are better because you can use it more effectively on smaller TFs. I have had a good deal of success on the 1 minute GBP/JPY for example. The A/u setup was based on the 4 hour TF. Entry of 10170 was based on PA on the 15 min TF. Knowing we had an all time high recently at 10258 meant I could use a tight stop of 95 pips for a possible gain of 150 pips or more. The reason I exited early with only 50 pips of profit (as I type this I would be up 130 if I had stayed in ). is a problem I have with patience That I constantly struggle with. That and my belief that the 4 days I had the margin tied up on that position, I could have made more on another, faster moving pair. Then again I could have lost money on another trade so I'll take the 50 pips and be happy. In the short term, my bias is still bearish A/U for the short term.

Good questions Ingot, There's a long history in the evolution of this method. The 800 sma was chosen before my involvment with the group. I asked why the 800 also, just a random # that had to be large. Since from the beginning they were looking for a move to an sma, it had to be large enough to make the move worthwhile even on smaller TFs. I am going to post a chart of what the original method looked like. In the beginning we only used the 1 hour TF. It is at this stage in the development I joined the group. The black dashed line is the 800 SMS, the Red line is the 62 EMA, and the Blue line is the 200 SMA. Since the 62 is above the 200 ( barely ), and the 200 is above the 800, the pair is in a Bullish trend. The only counter trend trade we would have taken, is the MACD divergence I have drawn on the chart. Now on this chart ( which is current BTW ) We would have taken a trend trade ( Long ) when the Stoch came out of oversold, assuming the 62 was still above the 200 SMA. If the 62 EMA was between the 200 and 800 SMAs, there was NO TRADE ( that has changed big time ). There is no significance attached to an MA cross, just visual reference. More To Follow.

Is anyone attending the NY Traders Expo in NYC on 2/19 thru 2/21? Maybe we can meet at the TL Booth.

Well... I did say that now that I was out of my short it would drop like a rock... Lol This would have been my re entry short: a Close below the TL on the 1 hour. But, I was asleep. My TP would have been around 9900 based on the second chart, which is 4 hour. Now, let me explain so you have some idea where I get my #s from. On the second chart (4hr), price has been away from the 800 sma for 721 candles, more than 1 standard deviation ( 1 standard dev = approx 500 candles ). The 800 sma is currently @ 9729, but is moving up. and, although the A/U is usually dependable for this particular setup, It never quite hits the 800 ( personal exp ). Anyway, here are the 1 hour and the 4 hour:

I was getting tired of this one. Looks like we were testing 10100 so I moved my S/l to 10120 and took a nap. I awoke to find I had been stopped for +50 pips. Now that I am out of my short it will probably drop like a rock. Lol. I have a few errands this afternoon, will post again with my thoughts later in the evening or around London Open ( Thurs ).

Ok, my lastest chart. I have been holding my short since Friday and don't like the negative roll. Tomorrow is Weds and triple roll. I would like to see a break of the dashed red line near the bottom of the chart. a candle close even better. This is 15 min TF:

I am a big believer in the Power of Example. And I think that actually seeing a "normal" person do it, was what made the biggest impression on me. No mirrors, no magic, no special sauce, the guy sat down at his desk and did his job. Then just hanging around and picking up little bits of info that I may have discovered by trial and error. Prior to trading I had been a business owner, but had no financial backround whatsoever. ( turns out neither did he ). Such as how to play "The Carry Trade". ( sigh, when the carry trade ended it was like going to the barn and finding the Goose that laid The Golden Egg had died ).

Yes, he was, and played left handed on a guitar built for right handed players (he did change the strings into the correct order). At the risk of dating myself, I saw him play 5 times in concert. Jimi was a name I just thru out. Now you have made me think about it he was probably a poor choice. The man was genius, a Mozart of modern Rock Guitar. I may have had a hard time communicating with him. A better choice would be a Journeyman, or studio musician.

Indeed, a contraction in the Chinese economy will have an impact on the Aussie.

I picked three trying to keep the "Budget Conscious" in mind. When we have enough posts to compile our list, we can also list the "Runner's Up" in order of popularity. And yes, Van K. Tharp is another good one. I have a couple of Elder's books. For some reason I was never able to get into them. Who knows, maybe I was in a different frame of mind at the time I bought them and should give them another look. Thanks.

Aversano, Welcome to TradersLaboratory. You may have posted this in the wrong thread, we are discussing book recommendations. I can move it for you if you like?

I really enjoyed Taleb's books. Did you ever read Gladwell's piece in The NewYorker about Taleb and Victor Niederhoffer?

Hi biegia, Absolutely Agree, there is no substitute for quality one on one time with a mentor. If I wanted to learn to play guitar, and had a choice of 4 hours of face time with Jimi Hendrix, or months in an auditorium with the high school music teacher, My choice would be obvious. We still maintain a private website accessible to every student my mentor has ever taught. Everyone is strongly encouraged to post a "My Week in Review". It contains the results of any trading for the week, What "I" did Right, and what "I" did wrong. Those that keep up with their "Homework" are the ones that usually find success. Now, lets get to the core of what I think is the problem. When someone signs on with a mentor, whether or not the mentor is any good or not it's becuase thay want to make money, a lot of it, fast. If the mentor knows what they are doing, they have to present the student with something that's easy to learn and will produce some results. Because that's what the student wants, easy and money ( don't get me wrong, I like money as much as the next person). In the old days if you were working middle class, and were lucky, a Master Carpenter might take someone on as an apprentice. You would learn a trade, develop into a craftsman. In some of the old brokerage houses you started in the mail room, or perhaps were recruited out of college. But you still did all the scut work in the office until someone thought you might be ready. Sadly that's not the case anymore. Everyone reads too many books like "Liars Poker".

Another setup: A "Close" below this trend line on the 15 min. I will explain what the numbers in the upper right hand corner mean a bit later. Need some sleep.

This is one of the reasons I got into the trade on Friday.