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Mysticforex
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Everything posted by Mysticforex
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Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
Mysticforex replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Welcome back. Will there be anything different this time around? -
Technically, Friday’s rally took USD/JPY out of a 2.5 week long consolidation. The next resistance or stop for the currency pair should be 120. We don’t see USD/JPY breaking back below 117, the current support level for the pair.
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USD/JPY The pair has been trading in a very tight 117-118 range for a considerable period of time and such low volatility typically leads to a vol explosion one way or the other. The pair needs to retake the 119.00 figure to establish a bullish bias while a break below 116.50 opens the prospect of a test of recent lows at 115.00
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Technically 1.2800 now represent the major top in the pair and a break above that could signal a move towards 1.3000 while support comes in at 1.2200 and the also at 1.2000 on any further retrace of the big rally
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Technically, the main support level for AUD/USD is below this year’s low at 0.7675. If this level is broken, it should be clear sailing for AUD/USD down to 75 cents. If the RBA does nothing and AUD/USD pops, resistance is at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2008 to 2011 rally around 0.7950.
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After the January free fall in the EURUSD, the pair has been trading in the 1.12 to 1.1350 area for over a week. Once the QE announcement was released and the results of the Greek election were known, the bear news was perhaps priced in the market. In addition there have been rumors of additional Swiss and Danish Bank intervention, both buying the euro. Fundamentally there seems little to favor purchases of the euro. The European economy remains a laggard and the Greek problem is unsolved. Granted the cheaper euro will help going forward and the cheaper energy is a mixed blessing, helping the EU balance of payments, but weighing on EU deflation.
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USD/CAD to 1.30? USD/CAD raced to a high of 1.28 on the back of weaker than expected GDP numbers and while the loonie recovered part of its losses by the end of the North American session, the uptrend remains intact. Over the past month, the currency pair soared over 1000 pips or 8% to its strongest level in 5 years.
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A football coach of an all Redneck team walked into the locker room before a game, looked over to his star player and said, "I'm not supposed to let you play since you failed math, but we need you in there. So what I have to do is ask you a math question, and if you get it right, you can play." The player agreed, and the coach looked into his eyes intently and asks, "Okay, now concentrate... what is two plus two?" The player thought for a moment and then he answered, "Four?" "Four?!?" the coach exclaimed, excited that he got it right. At that, all the other players on the team began screaming, "Come on coach, give him another chance!"
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Making a bottom? Technically the 7400 level is the key support in cable and as long as it holds the pair should consolidate with an upward move towards the 7600 figure. A break of 7400 however would be very bearish and would open up the prospect of a move towards 7200.
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The RBNZ has shifted from a tightening to neutral monetary policy bias and the New Zealand dollar collapsed in response. At this point, there is no major support in NZD/USD until the 2011 low of 0.7118. Resistance remains at 75 cents.
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Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
Mysticforex replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Hi Sifuforex, Welcome to Traderslaboratory. -
NZD/JPY Technically the 87.00 is key support for the pair and break there opens a run towards 85.00. On the other hand a close above 89.00 would suggest that the pair has found firm support and may be ready to rally
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Technically, there is short-term support at 117.15 and more significant support at 115.57. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1998 to 2011 decline at 120.18 will cap gains for the time being.
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Most of the more commonly known brokerage's have already switched to the "Agency" model being used by FXCM. Two possible exceptions are Gain and Oanda.
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The next big meeting is in March so there’s no need to rush any changes. If we are right and the Fed provides no fresh insight at this week’s meeting, their tightening bias will make the dollar more attractive and drive USD/JPY higher. Technically, there is short-term support at 117.15 and more significant support at 115.57. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1998 to 2011 decline at 120.18 will cap gains for the time being.
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Now that AUD/USD has fallen below 80 cents and below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2008 to 2012 rally, the next stop for the currency pair should be the 2007 swing low of 0.7675. As long as AUD/USD remains below 0.8050, the downtrend remains intact.
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Now that AUD/USD has fallen below 80 cents and below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2008 to 2012 rally, the next stop for the currency pair should be the 2007 swing low of 0.7675. As long as AUD/USD remains below 0.8050, the downtrend remains intact.
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Euro At 12 Year Lows Euro has now hit 12 year lows breaking through the 1.1400 level after ECB announced its QE program. After hemming and hawing the market finally decided that the program was not going to be enough to revive the EZ economy plus its convoluted structure has given market little confidence that it can succeed. However the lower euro may be doing the work of ECB for it as the decline in euro and decline in oil prices should have a positive impact on EZ businesses. Tonight's EZ PMIs will give us the first hint of whether the demand is picking up. Having broken all the key levels the long term target on the euro now looks to be the 1.1000 level. However for now the pair could find support at 1.1300 and rebound to 1.1500
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Technically, NZD/CAD pulled back from its highs and we think this is a great value level for the currency pair. There is support at 92 cents and no major resistance until the June and July highs near 0.9450/0.9475.
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Oil dropped another 5 dollars today hitting a low of $46/bbl and dragged loonie to fresh lows as USDCAD soared through the 1.2000 and 1.2100 levels. The pair is now at highs not seen in 6 years and the key question is can it rise further? Of course the main driver will be oil - which is a key component of the Canadian economy especially in the western part of the nation. However although oil continues to drip lower its rate of decline has slowed and it looks like it may find a bottom in the mid 40'sb for now. If oil can stabilize the loonie is due for a bounce, especially if the BOC meeting tomorrow reveals no new policy initiatives. If however the BOC does something unexpected like lower rates all bets are off and USDCAD can climb to 1.2500 Technically, USDCAD has made a clean break out today, but on longer term charts the 1.2000 level was former support so it could prove to be new resistance. Still only a break below 1.1800 would disrupt the bullish bias in the pair
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Technically, AUD/USD is attempting to break the top of its ascending triangle and I believe that it will happen in a more convincing way over the next week. When that occurs, a stronger move towards 84 cents is likely. In the meantime, the swing low of 0.8033 is support.
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What next for the EURO? On a technical basis, EUR/USD has already fallen below the November 2005 low of 1.1645 and below the psychologically significant 1.15 level to a low of 1.1460. For now, 1.15 is still an important support level to watch because the currency pair ended the week above this rate. However the main support for EUR/USD right now will be the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2000 to 2008 rally at 1.1215. On the upside, the 1.1645 support is now resistance.
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCM Said to Be in Talks With Jefferies for $200 Million Rescue - Bloomberg
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So, who has an account with FXCM? I do. I don't have any open positions atm. I was not in any CHF trades yesterday Any guess's on what happens to them now? Will GAIN take them over? Will they dilute share price (FXCM) to raise equity? The founders still own 44% of the stock.
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The action in EUR/CHF today was unprecedented as the SNB simply walked away from the peg and allowed the franc to appreciate by nearly 20% in an instant. The cross is now trading at parity and the key question is where now given the massive adjustment that has already occurred. Although it is tempting to believe that the pair will slide further, the most likely scenario is consolidation and some short covering rally as the event of today have grossly exaggerated the balance between the two pairs. First and foremost the sharply negative rate on the Swiss bank deposits means that investors will now lose 75bp to carry alone. Few investors will be willing to accept the slow depletion of their capital for a long period of time. Secondly the ECB may surprise the market by not doing full QE at its meeting next week. Any "positive shock" on the euro could trigger a pretty vicious short covering rally in the pair. That is why short trades at this point should be considered with care. Technically there is simply no credible support points, but the parity level seems to be a psychological magnet and will be support for now.