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Mysticforex
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Everything posted by Mysticforex
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Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
Mysticforex replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Hi Karthick, Welcome to TL . As others suggest, jump right in. What do you trade? -
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For the third week in a row the large specs have flipped their position, this time back to a short euro position. It sure looks like the big specs have been getting chopped up in this market. Open interest was up 24K to 343K which is a big market. The tootal spec short in the euro is now 39K. Spreading, usually option trade is up to 12.8% of the market.
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AUD/NZD remains in a broad 1.0500-1.0900 range with the pair still holding on at the top end of the channel. A break above 1.0930 opens the path to a test of the key 1.1100 figure, while a break below 1.0730 creates the conditions for a run to the lower end of the channel at the 1.0500 area
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For the first time ever, Janet Yellen will be making the trip up Capitol Hill to testify on the economy and monetary policy. While market participants will be waiting with bated breath to hear what the new Fed Chairman has to say, one of her primary goals will be to minimize the market’s reaction to her comments. Maintaining low volatility is a top priority for a central banker especially when it is her first time on the podium and this is why we expect Yellen to say as much as possible tomorrow, but reveal very little. Members of Congress will have a long list of questions for her but investors are only concerned with three: 1. Is She Worried About Muted Job Growth? 2. What Will She do with Forward Guidance? 3. Is Taper on a Preset Course?
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Breakout Trade for GBP/USD: Place order to Buy GBP/USD at 1.6522 Stop at 1.6462 Close half at 1.6552, move stop to break-even Close rest 1.6650
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GBP/CAD: GBP/CAD tested but failed to break below 1.80 for the past 4 trading days. This level was also an important area of resistance in mid January. Given the fundamental outlook, we think there is a chance this support will break at which point the next stop will be 1.78. On the upside, if GBP/CAD breaks above 1.82, the currency pair could extend to 1.84.
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Here;s who we have so far.
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BTW: You can go to the ECB website and get live streaming of ECB press conferences. http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
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ECB Draghi: Recovery inline with assessment. Doesn't sound very excited about recent data.
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With the European Central Bank meeting later today, EUR is in play. EUR/JPY in particular has been confined within a narrow 200 pip range for the past 3 days between 136 and 138, making the currency pair prime for a breakout. Central bank rate decisions are the perfect catalyst for big moves even if the ECB does not change interest rates. Every month the head of the ECB delivers a press conference where he provides his latest economic and monetary policy outlooks. Mario Draghi’s comments almost always move the euro as traders express their enthusiasm or disappointment with the central bank’s views. EUR/JPY’s reaction to Draghi will depend on whether he acknowledges the recent economic improvements in the economy or ignores them again. Having only strengthened their forward guidance last month, the central bank will be wary of sounding overly optimistic and risk driving rates higher. The odds favor EUR/JPY negative comments from the ECB but most market participants expect the central bank to be dovish so any hint of optimism could send EUR/JPY sharply higher.
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With the European Central Bank meeting coming up in a bit, EUR is in play. EUR/JPY in particular has been confined within a narrow 200 pip range for the past 3 days between 136 and 138, making the currency pair prime for a breakout. Central bank rate decisions are the perfect catalyst for big moves even if the ECB does not change interest rates. Every month the head of the ECB delivers a press conference where he provides his latest economic and monetary policy outlooks. Mario Draghi’s comments almost always move the euro as traders express their enthusiasm or disappointment with the central bank’s views. EUR/JPY’s reaction to Draghi will depend on whether he acknowledges the recent economic improvements in the economy or ignores them again. Having only strengthened their forward guidance last month, the central bank will be wary of sounding overly optimistic and risk driving rates higher. The odds favor EUR/JPY negative comments from the ECB but most market participants expect the central bank to be dovish so any hint of optimism could send EUR/JPY sharply higher.
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Oandas" open order and position book:
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I am posting the link to the March Contest early. Hopefully we will get a larger turnout. https://fx2.oanda.com/mod_perl/fxcontest/fxcontest.pl?rm=contestDetails&contestId=3174
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I am posting the link to the March Trading Contest 3 weeks ahead. Hopefully we may get a larger turnout. https://fx2.oanda.com/mod_perl/fxcontest/fxcontest.pl?rm=contestDetails&contestId=3174
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NFP Number and Dow Jones Reaction
Mysticforex replied to tradingwizzard's topic in Market News & Analysis
Yes. correlations and reactions are coming back more to how they were say 5 years ago. -
In the past 24 hours, GBP/JPY experienced the steepest losses. Due to a more than 0.75% decline in the GBP/USD and 0.9% decline in USD/JPY, GBP/JPY dropped approximately 1.75% to its lowest level since November. The pressure created by the weaker than expected manufacturing data from U.S. and U.K. was exacerbated by risk aversion. When the markets open in Asia and investors in that part of the world see that U.S. stocks fell more than 2%, we expect further weakness in GBP/JPY. Although there were pockets of strength in both the U.S. and U.K. manufacturing reports, GBP/JPY will have a very difficult time recovering without a turnaround in risk appetite. Unfortunately there’s no major U.K. or U.S. economic reports scheduled for release tomorrow that could help. As a result, we expect further losses in GBP/JPY and if this week’s data releases continue to miss their mark, the currency pair could drop below 161 and head towards 160.
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Technically EUR/GBP is now consolidating and basing after a steep selloff with support coming in at 8160 while resistance is at 8350. If the pair can push higher then the next upside level is 8500 while a break below the year's lows opens a run towards 8000.
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Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
Mysticforex replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Hi TradersNewsDeck, welcome to Traderslaboratory ! Hope you enjoy your time here. -
The situation in Italy is most acute. Italy has the third largest amount of sovereign debt in the world, and the ECB auditors are coming for a visit. A recent Reuters story commented of the situation: "Italian banks are near saturation point after two years spent frantically buying their own government's bonds, forcing the Treasury to find alternative investors at home and abroad to finance a 2-trillion euro debt. Lenders' ability to soak up yet more Italian sovereign debt depends largely on the European Central Bank - which in turn says Italy is crucial to the fate of the entire euro zone." But with the Bundesbank in control of the EU money supply, we must get ready for another crises in the ongoing euro drama.
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Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
Mysticforex replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Welome Dragons-Den, Please do share your experiences . And don't be afraid to ask questions. -
Other AUD & NZD Pair Discussions (GBPNZD, EURAUD, AUDCAD Etc.)
Mysticforex replied to TL Staff's topic in Forex
This order is cancelled. Have a nice weekend all. -
FWIW: If you have an Iphone you can download the free Netdania Chart app from the Apple Store. You can then set it up to send you price alerts.
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Technically, today’s rally in AUD/NZD has taken the currency pair to the first standard deviation Bollinger Band, a potential level of resistance. If AUD/NZD breaks above this point, the next resistance will be at 1.0920. On the downside, there is some support at 1.07 but the more significant support is at the 8 year low near 1.05.
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Contest is finished. I had not planned a contest for Feb. anyone interested in March?