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Mysticforex
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Everything posted by Mysticforex
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The GBP/CHF pair faces key resistance at the 1.5000 level, but a break above opens the prospect of a run towards recent highs at 1.5100 and then further to 1.5300. The downside is supported by the 1.4800 and 1.4700 levels where there is a firm base.
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Data released today - Wednesday, 14th May 2014 - reveal the success of PM Abe's economic stimulants. The world's number-three economy grew 1.5 percent on-quarter in January-March, sharply higher than the previous three months thanks to a rush by shoppers to beat an April 1st sales tax hike. That compares with revised growth of 0.1 percent in October-December and is much better than the 1.1 percent forecast by market-watchers. It also represents the sixth consecutive quarter of growth and is the fastest since July-September 2011 when the economy picked up from the effects of the quake-tsunami disaster.
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Although GBP/USD retraced off its 1.70 high, as long as it holds above 1.6760, the uptrend remains intact. If it breaks below 1.6760, there is no major support until 1.6600. On the upside, if GBP/USD clears 1.70, there is minor resistance at the 2009 high of 1.7043 and nothing beyond that until 1.75.
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Technically EUR/JPY has triple bottom support at the 140.00 level and a break there opens the run to 137.00 and possibly a full unwind towards the 135.00 level. Only a break above 142.50 relies the negative bias and put the pair on an upward trajectory.
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The downtrend in USD/CAD shifted quickly and aggressively after Friday’s Canadian employment report. Although job growth was widely expected to slow in the month of April, only 1 out of the 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipated job losses. A total of 30k full time jobs were lost last month with only a gain of 2k in part time employment. While the unemployment rate held steady at 6.9%, the labor force participation rate fell to a 12 year low of 66.1% from 66.2%. This is not only terrible news for the labor market but the economy as a whole and it hardens the argument for additional easing. The last time we heard from the Bank of Canada, they cut their 2014 GDP forecast and said they can’t shut the door on further rate cuts. With today’s release, traders will be raising their bets on additional easing which should drive USD/CAD higher. The currency pair has already appreciated 0.6% on the back of the employment report and we believe that this number is significant enough to carve out a bottom in USD/CAD.
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Once again when ECB President Draghi talks, the market listens with respect. The pundits claim the phrase "comfortable taking action in June" is what got the market running to the downside. Probably there is more at work than just a phrase. But the threat of pending prospective negative market inputs, coming from a central banker who has done it all, took the starch out of the market. What followed was a 'key reversal' day, in the parlance of technicians (making a new yearly high and then closing lower is called a 'key reversal', a notable event). The EURUSD exceeded the previous high for the year, trading at the highest level since October of 2011, no small feat. Then the market reversed, selling off about 150 pips from the high. Extremely high volume confirmed the importance of the reversal.
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The two happiest days in a boat owners life. The day he buys his boat, and the day he sells it. I have just reached a deal to sell my boat. All that's left is for the buyer to secure financing. Hope that's not a problem.
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With Janet Yellen’s testimony behind us, the next big event risk this week will be Thursday’s European Central Bank monetary policy announcement and with EUR/JPY trading in an increasingly narrow range, it could be just what the currency pair needs to breakout. No changes are expected so any reaction in the euro will be to Mario Draghi’s press conference and not the monetary policy announcement. For the first time since September 2011, the euro is trading north of 1.39 versus the dollar ahead of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting. We know that Draghi and his peers at the ECB are not happy with the current level of the euro but the big question is whether the value of the currency is a large enough problem for the central bank to prepare the market for additional easing. When the ECB last met in March, the euro sold off aggressively after Draghi spent most of his press conference talking about the possibility of additional easing and outlining the ways they could increase stimulus. In order to send a stronger message to the market, he would need to indicate that the central bank is not only willing to ease, but preparing to do so within the next few months. If he does, it could drive EUR/JPY sharply lower. However the ECB can afford to wait with inflation ticking up in April and activity increasing so if they choose to be patient and keep their outlook steady, EUR/JPY could break to the upside.
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The NZD/USD chart highlights the currency pair’s move after recent dairy auctions. On a technical basis, higher lows and higher highs signal strength for the currency but 87 and 8750 are significant resistance levels for NZD/USD. If both levels are broken it should be clear sailing up to 8845 but if NZD/USD fails below 87 cents, a drop to 86 becomes likely.
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Very nice number to the upside. +288k. Over 300K would have been a Blow Out. More important, The Rate came down to 6.3%
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I am not expecting any "Blow Out" numbers today. For the FX markets, after the usual whipsaw, it may turn out to be a non event. The FED has already set it's monetary policy and I don't the think the NFP number will change that.
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While 1.50 is a psychologically significant resistance level in EUR/AUD, the real level for the currency pair to break is the April high of 1.5022. Above this point there is no major resistance until 1.52. Should the upside momentum in EUR/AUD fade and the currency starts to trend lower, support will be found at the April low of 1.4655.
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The AUD/NZD looks to be rolling over again as interest rate differentials between the two Tasmanian sea neighbors begin to widen. At its last meeting the RBNZ raised rates and although it complained about the high value of the kiwi, the central bank made no indication that it will stop the tightening process. This trend is sure to continue given the very strong results in NZ Building Consents as the RBNZ is most concerned with popping the housing bubble. Meanwhile the Aussie appears to have run out of steam at the 9300 level and tonight Chinese PMI data if it misses to the downside could provide further reason for the AUD to weaken. Therefore AUD/NZD which has failed above the 1.0800 level could begin to fall further as it retests the lows at 1.0500
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Technically the failure ahead of the the key 1.0900-1.1100 level bodes badly for AUD/NZD longs and a breakdown below 1.0700 could open the path towards a test of recent swing lows at the 1.0500 level.
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How Do.i Explain in Job Jnterview ?
Mysticforex replied to daytrade999's topic in General Discussion
Would echo MM. What is your degree in ? What kind of job are you seeking ? -
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Just a little update. The last post in this thread was Jan 09 2014. The attached chart shows that every Weekly Pivot (orange dash) was hit except one. The one that was not hit (highlighted in yellow) would not have opened a trade. Last weeks WP opened but did not TP till this week.
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Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
Mysticforex replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Welcome Ella. There are many threads here where I think you will find what you are looking for. -
On a technical basis, EUR/GBP has strong triple bottom support at 8200 but a break of the 8150 level could open the path to a move towards the key 8000 figure. Meanwhile upside looks contained by the 8250-8300 range.
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