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Mysticforex
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Everything posted by Mysticforex
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The euro has support at 1.3330, but a break there leads to a test of 1.3290 support from November of last year followed by a possible double bottom test at 1.3100. On the upside only a move through the 1.3500 level negates the bearish bias and puts the pair back to neutral stance
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The euro has support at 1.3330, but a break there leads to a test of 1.3290 support from November of last year followed by a possible double bottom test at 1.3100. On the upside only a move through the 1.3500 level negates the bearish bias and puts the pair back to neutral stance
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Euro Specs have extended their short position in the euro taking it to almost 183K from last week's 157.2K. Large specs are a 3.5 ratio short, while the mall spec are a 2.1 short. Two week ago the short was 132K. The interesting thing about the additional 50K of shorts is this failed to take the market much lower. Who are the buyers? Spreading/options are 9.9% of the total OI which is up to 450K. The spec short in the euro is now over 3 Trillion USD.
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based on the technical picture of EUR/GBP, the rally in the currency pair on Friday was very strong. Having broken above the former 1 month high of 0.7985, 80 would be too tempting not to test but even if EUR/GBP breaks through this level, gains should be limited to the June highs of 0.8035. If GBP/USD breaks back below 0.7925, then the uptrend would be negated.
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Spot On !!!
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Geopolitical Risks Make US Assets Attractive EUR Lifted by De-escalation of Russia/Ukraine Tensions GBP: Big Week Ahead for Sterling USD/CAD Snaps Back on Weak Canadian Employment AUD: Weak Home Loans and Investment Lending NZD: Chinese Trade Balance Hits Record Highs in July USD/JPY Hit by Losses in Nikkei and Drop in Treasury Yields
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On a technical basis, the cup and handle pattern in AUD/NZD is a bullish pattern that suggests 1.1050 will be broken. If this level is breached on a closing basis in a meaningful way, there is no major resistance until the December high of 1.1215. However if the currency pair fails at 1.1050, the reversal could drive AUD/NZD back down to 1.09.
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Market Drivers for August 6 2014 NZD sells off further as employment data disappoints UK MP/IP 0.3% vs. 0.6% Nikkei -1.05% Europe -0.57% Oil $97/bbl Gold $1292/oz. Europe and Asia: NZD Employment 0.4% vs. 0.7% NZD Unemployment Rate 5.6& vs. 5.8% EUR German Factory Orders -3.2% vs. 0.5% EUR Retail PMI 47.6 vs. 50.0 GBP UK IP North America: USD Trade Balance 08:30 CAD Trade Balance 08:30
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A very strong move today highlight's s possible breakout above 2.0000 which could pave the way to a further rally above 2.0200. Only a break below 1.9700 would negate the bullish bias and turn the trade into sell once again.
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Specs have been long the pound for months, but they have been gradually selling out their longs. The total long position remains, but it is down to 44.9K from 48.2 last week. This market is no longer an out of balance long, and might, perhaps, be due for a bounce.
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On a technical basis, EUR/GBP rose above the first standard deviation Bollinger Band, which is bullish for the currency and as long as the pair holds above 0.7945, the uptrend remains intact. Although 80 is a big round number, if EUR/GBP hits a 1 month high above 0.7985, it should be able to break this level and make its way towards 0.8050. If U.K. data surprises to the upside, then a much needed relief rally in sterling will drive EUR/GBP down to 79 cents easily.
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Thirteen trading days have now past without a meaning rally in the GBP/USD. This is the longest stretch of weakness that we have seen in sterling since August 2008. The currency pair has obviously become deeply oversold and now everyone is wondering if GBP/USD is due for a recovery. From a fundamental perspective, further losses are likely because next week’s U.K. economic reports should reinforce the weakness that kicked off the decline in the currency. U.K. data took a turn for the worse in mid July prompting the Bank of England to tone down their hawkishness and speculators to abandon their long positions, which hit 7-year highs on July 1st. According to the latest CFTC data, long sterling positions have been cut by 55% so with how deeply oversold the currency pair has become we would be surprised if there were no recovery. However the magnitude may be small given the shift in monetary policy expectations and economic backdrop of the currency.
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Agree, you are not ready. Get a Demo acct and practice on that for a while.
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On a technical basis, all of the oscillators show that GBP/USD is deeply oversold but with Friday’s decline, the currency pair also closed below the 100-day SMA for the first time since August 2013. This signals the possibility of further losses with the next level of support at 1.6630, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the July 2013 to July 2014 rally. A move back above 1.70 would be needed to negate the downtrend in GBP/USD.
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The markets were apprehensive because superb NFP numbers would hasten the day the Fed would increase rates. This fear was not justified. The 10 year US Treasuries shed five basis points taking the yield back near the 2.50% area. While the US numbers are sufficient for the Fed's taper to continue, the fear of a rate increase has diminished. Fed Chairman Yellen's concern for the the tepid labor market will certainly continue, but giving the Fed the responsibility for achieving full employment is really a "mission impossible." It is small business, rather than monetary policy, which is needed to stimulate job and vibrant economic growth. US small business formation has been squelched by the massive growth of laws and regulations imposed from Washington. These are, in addition to the costly, confusing and ever changing Affordable Care Act. To start and succeed with a new business, a costly battalion of lawyers and accountants is needed to compliment a strong business plan.
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While fundamentals may be less clear, on a technical basis, the break of the 100-day SMA signals the beginning of a more significant downtrend for AUD/USD. Having consolidated above 0.9320 for the past 7 weeks, today’s move also takes the currency pair below a significant support level. At this stage, technicals point to a continued sell-off that should drive AUD/USD to at least 92 cents and possibly even 91 cents. If the currency pair finds a reason to rally, a break back above the SMA at 0.9320 would be needed to negate the downside momentum.
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While fundamentals may be less clear, on a technical basis, the break of the 100-day SMA signals the beginning of a more significant downtrend for AUD/USD. Having consolidated above 0.9320 for the past 7 weeks, today’s move also takes the currency pair below a significant support level. At this stage, technicals point to a continued sell-off that should drive AUD/USD to at least 92 cents and possibly even 91 cents. If the currency pair finds a reason to rally, a break back above the SMA at 0.9320 would be needed to negate the downside momentum.
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Any chance you could upload it tot the library ?
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On a technical basis, 1.5800 is a very significant resistance level for EUR/NZD. Not only did the pair find support near this level in March and May, but it is also the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the sell-off that began on December 27th. If EUR/NZD closes above this level on the daily chart, the next stop for the currency pair should be the 100-day SMA at 1.5865 and then 1.60. However if it fails at 1.58, there is no major support until 1.56.
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Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
Mysticforex replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Welcome Lancelot. The best wat to learn is to ask questions. -
The pair has been a rangebound play between 100.75 and 102.50 for most of the year and it needs to close above the 103.00 level to confirm the bullish bias. But the recent price action is constructive with higher lows suggesting that momentum is building to the upside.
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Earlier this week there was an article in Bloomberg, which quoted Goldman who is friendly to the AUDUSD (FXA, UDN UUP). They reported: Offshore buying that helped push Australia’s 10-year bond yield to its lowest in 13 months and spurred the developed world’s biggest currency gain shows no sign of abating, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management...... Japanese money managers purchased more than 1 trillion yen ($9.8 billion) of Aussie dollar-denominated debt over the five months through May, official data from the Asian nation show. markets and drive down yields.
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It is a busy week for data releases with the Fed FOMC notes and the NFP the featured attractions. Additionally in the US, we have the initial Q2 US GDP report, and the weekly unemployment claims report as well as the monthly unemployment report. From Europe we get more potential market moving reports, the unemployment rate, anticipated CPI's, and some estimates of consumer spending. Since Forex trading involves pairs of currencies, almost all currencies get caught in the money shuffle.
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Taking a look at the weekly chart of EUR/AUD, support in the currency is at 1.4225, the 38.2% Fibonnaci retracement of 2012 to 2014 rally. If this level is broken, the next stop for the currency pair should be the November swing low of 1.4050. A break 1.46 would be needed to negate the downtrend in the pair.
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– US Dollar Index: The long position in the DI grew marginally from 24K to 24.7K. Large spec dominate the trade in the DI and they hold 71.2% of the long side and 39.2% of the sell side. The small specs are a 4 ratio long. – Euro (EUR/USD): Trade is the euro and the resultant OI was already large in the euro, but increased by over 10% to 397K. Most of this increase came from the large specs who increased their short position. They are now a 2.6 ratio short the euro. Trade in the spreading/option category also increased by 5.8K of delta adjusted positions. The total spec short position in the euro is up to 132K from 106.2K last week. Market action has rewarded the shorts.