The Bear

Symbol = DD

In another post you guys recommended ER2 as a fast market on CME for intra-day trading. What is THE fastest regular sized (or mini) contract on CME that has good liquidity for intra-day trading....and available on GLOBEX during the day.

Really? Thanks for this information. I'm going to look into this ER2. One of the reasons I don't trade YM as much anymore, is, for the most of the time, I find it a slow market, and I'm not willing to watch it everyday to wait for it to really explode.

Dudes I've been looking at the CME site and I see an S&P 500 contract (not the e-mini), but it looks like it only trades after-hours. Anyone know if there are any plans to do side by side on GLOBEX during the day?

Interesting analysis, but it doesn't work for me, for the markets I trade. I always watch the times you say, and the pre-market, but for me market movements start to trend at anytime of the day and end at anytime of the day.

I totally get what your saying here. I think similar to you too. But when he says the word 'trend day', I think he's referring to those kind of days (bullish for example), where little to no significant pivot lows get violated. The kind of huge range days like the big drop day on the dow. The open and close are close to the extremes of the range. I think this is what he's referring to as a trend day. They don't come that often. There are many days like the one you posted where there are significant trends intra-day, but the day may end up as a doji. I didn't know you were considering these as trend days.

>The two are mutually exclusive. That is, it is possible to know that we are >trending and NOT know when it will end. I think we should re-word it guys. It's possible to know that we WERE trending.

I still don't see what this has to do with his original question. What he said was How, if possible, can one predict a trend day before the day completes. What you said here was like my previous post. A guy looking at his charts, patting himself on the back because he had a profit day AFTER THE FACT. Any after the fact thinking has absolutely nothing to do with what he asks.

This happened to me once. I called the broker and it took a number of days ( 4 maybe) but they did find it. You'll probably just have to wait a bit.

Exactly, you said it. If it were possible to predict the trend days, then you could just wait for those days then max out the margin in your account right up to the red line. Easy in theory, but impossible to implement in real life.

I agree with brown on this one. It's impossible for me to know what the day will bring. It's easy for me to say, hey this was a trend day, and all my trades worked out wonderfully. Look at this perfect trend day and look at these perfect setups. It's like the guy patting himself on the back after the fact. It's very easy to say anything after the fact. And, we only know it was a trend day until after the close. How many trend days have you gone through where you traded but didn't load up? It happens to me all the time. I never know how a day is going to turn out...at least this is in the markets that I trade. Markets routinely trend in the morning nicely and turn into slop later. Or slop early then trend later. Days that trend the entire day just happen to be a one of those days. If people are able to predict it, then all the power to them. I'm unable to. So to answer the original question, how do I determine if it was a trend day? At the end of the day I'll look at the technicals and say "this was a nice trend day"....or i'll say "this days was ugly as hell".

following an occupation as a means of livelihood or for gain = professional As all businesses can run at net income or loss at different times, throughout it's lifetime, I don't think making money has anything to do with the title itself...although if one consistently lost money over years, they would probably leave the profession and ultimately lose the job title 'professional trader'.

Cool thanks for that info

I would rather trade whatever contract makes me more money. Volume isn't really a concern for my strategies.

>owndata soft to feed ts... and on the other side you need esignal data feed >that I belive they have your market covered Is there any delay with this setup? Realtime?

There may not be any. For me: Less = More

OK thanks guys. Maybe I should ask my friend if he's comfortable gambling with those naked puts & calls. I'll look at the OIH, but I probably won't be doing anything with options anways. I already trade CL (Crude Oil) but on a short term basis. Can I even scalp with options? I'm not very good at intermediate term trading. The LO options may only be pit traded, i'm not sure.

Exactly... a large one. BUT a large one but with a smaller spread than the DD.

I haven't heard of ES. In fact I haven't traded Emini's before...although is YM considered an E-Mini? I always thought Emini was a marketing word...they are just futures in the end...but smaller contracts right? I'll check out the contract you guys talk about...but yes, I'm looking for something that is leveraged like the DD (Big Dow). I prefer trading less contracts as opposed to multiples. The big dow is $25.00 per tick.

>Have you ever faced a situation where you can't get out of a position cause of >that low turnover? No. There is always at least one (usually always more) contract on either side available. I've never seen it go to zero. I think it has a Lead Market Maker. I'll get an answer for you though, I'll ask the fellow at CBOT and report back here why. >But after your post I guess that liquidity is a subjective thing! DD (Big Dow) is only listed on ECBOT (Electronic), so this may be a situation only relating to this type of contract. I wouldn't apply this rule to any exchange. I'll take a look at this MP book one day. >Mate don't worry bout your level of education either, if your making money >consistently you must be doing something right! Just sit down and look at >what you do so that you can develop your own system based on your own >style. True, I guess I can't technically say I trade with no system...but I guess I made my own system. I have a very extensive trading plan now. Originally I was obsessed with 'setups' and had a very robotic mechanical way of trading. I was also overtrading because I would get alot of false setups. It didn't work for me, I was losing money. Then I just 'let myself go' and I can finally sleep at night without thinking of my swing positions. I'll get back to you when I hear back from CBOT. Check out FDAX futures....that might be in your time zone? YM is gapping down on the 2-min. What's this?

Thanks man. I already trade commodities, but was just curious about index futures. I would have thought there would be a S&P 500 future equivalent to the big dow.

That's pure shady business...how the market makers just disappear. I once heard a guy say...... Options is a the Poor Man's Race Track. I wonder what that means. Are there more suckers in the options game? Since it's a zero sum game too, it can't be much different than futures right?

You all have valid points....how about I just stay away from them. This friend of mine is urging me to start writing these. I told him I'm just going to stick with the commodity trading...since I can make money (net profit) at it. Options sounds like a whole new game that I don't want to get into. I tried to read McMillans book, but it gets boring for me. Dalby brought up one point though on liquidity....that alone though is enough to keep me away. Curious, do any of you possibly know anything about options on Crude Oil (Symbol: LO). Is this a big market?

In my OPINION, It's very difficult to say though that liquidity concerns are directly related to # of contracts traded per day....for all contracts. If you watch the DD contract (the big dow) this tracks YM very closely almost at all times....even on the BIG DROP day we just had. I don't understand the technical reasons why an intra-day speculator like me can easily trade with the DD contract even though it does 60 contracts per day. I think it depends on the type of liquidity provider (market making) in the contract. Contact the exchange directly. (I still have no idea what b) MP thoery means. It looks like engineering language to me. Alot of the stuff you guys talk about on this forum goes over the top of my head. (I have no university education) Nonetheless I learn alot from you guys on this forum. I'm a very basic kind of guy...'a speculator born from the street' so to say.) I barely trade with a system as it is but I can make money.

Guys I know in theory they have unlimited risk (naked calls), but is there any more risk than trading highly leveraged commodities short and having them gap against you the next day? Yes in theory it is unlimited risk, but who would let a position move against them that much. Isn't it usually possible to close out these options positions?