The Bear

Grains are heavy duty...there's some big action there. What are your thoughts on Soybeans? Pullback or beginning of possible downtrend.

Yo cooter, can you help me out and tell me if there are any forums on the net where oil traders...or any energy for that matter post messages? I trade Natural Gas (Symbol: NG) (Henry Hub) quite often. I used to trade it more than oil but it's been very erratic lately, mostly un-tradable for me. I wish I followed the RBOB market, this is where the action is, but at this point im a bit scared to just take a flyer. Have you ever traded the NG market cooter? Thanks for the offer bud, but do send me a PM once you are setup with your new rates and trading Oil or Gas. Or let me know if you trade the RBOB what it's like.

You are totally correct. The money is in the big contracts like Soybeans....Corn etc... The margin is insane though....it's so low? Why does it feel like I'm getting alot of bang for the buck here? Maybe my calculations are wrong.

Hi cooter I prefer the regular size contracts rather than the mini ones. I like the larger risk and the larger potential gain, that happens within seconds. I did trade the QM contract last year a bit, but I found I got some slippage at times intraday...1 tick at the most. The CL contract is the main market and that's where I feel at home for some reason. QM is great for situations where you want to scale down your risk though, and it's perfectly fine for slightly larger time frames. Margin on the CL is around 2000.00 per contract intraday and around 4000.00 per contract pre/post market. Margin may be even lower on ICE, I'm not sure. I trade in different time frames...like the 5-min, 15-min for example....but I go for different targets...usually 30 ticks....sometimes less, sometimes more. I'm not much of a swing trader or position trader (not very good at it), but I'm slowly getting into it again. 2 years ago I was swing trading quite a bit. I'm trying to swing trade MRO (Marathon Oil), and picked up some a few days ago.

Cooter, Walter and friends, what are you thoughts on: MRO (NYSE) HES (NYSE) I'm thinking of going long these oil co. but wan't prices to pull back more. Thinking this could be a good position trade. Haven't done that much trading in the stock market but want to try and do some small slow overnight trades risking very little dollars to get a feel. Any recommendations on high quality stocks that relate to oil, that I can watch from now on, at the end of the day, let me know. I'm also bullish on GSF, RIG, SII....but I want to see these pick up speed on the daily, then wait for a pullback hopefully. FORGOT TO SAY...LOOK AT THESE ON THE DAILY & WEEKLY CHARTS

Honestly though Cooter, I trade oil every day, and even if I had those news terminals, there's no way I could react quickly enough to read the data then trade on that news, or even have it reflect my trading actions. I'm sure you already know, but trading CL is mostly a bloodbath...it moves very fast, and spikes during the day....it's mostly whipsaw. Your right though, a big event could hurt me, but for now I can handle it - i'm not married and I have no children, but you are technically correct...I could blow up...but so can any speculator trading CL or any highly leveraged commodity for that matter. So to answer your question, I use very little fundamental analysis....because personally I think by the time the news comes out...the spike has already happened at the exchange. It's OLD NEWS already. Walter, I can't get the chart for CL because it's on my trading system not my net surfing system. The symbol is CL. If you can't get CL you maybe can get QM the mini contract, OR if you want you can see oil by looking at USO (United States Oil Fund) AMEX. You probably could get daily data on it from USO. USO is a good market for doing overnight trading on oil...and you can share size too.

Interesting Winsum. I'm pretty much ready to start buying now, but going to wait to see it retrace a bit. It may fall apart though at anytime, so i'm just keeping ready. After we had the huge selloff 3 days ago, we are sort of resting now.....waiting.... Walter I can't...my charts are on my trading systems, and this is my net surfing system....

Thanks Cooter. I was reading those reports from that website a few months ago and I do trade on wed., but I find the reports to be pretty useless for intra-day trading for my style. Maybe more useful for overnight?

Does something like the TRIN or TICK exist for the crude oil market (CL). What do the floor traders use for market internals?

Any thoughts on the oil pullback on the daily (Symbol: CL)? I'm bullish on oil, but this pullback is pretty hard. I've been shorting CL lately, but these 2 little doji days in a row? At this point i'm either way, but unsure how much more downside there is.

No but let me know if you find out what the equivalent market internals are for the DAX that equte to the TICK & the TRIN. I haven't been able to find them. Do they exist?

Interesting comments wei wei. I've been talking to my options friend and he's making money doing his writing but he hasn't been doing it long. He get's like 9 winning positions in a row, but like you said, if you take a HUGE hit, it could wipe out gains significantly. So the key is, can they make enough money fast enough so a big hit doesn't take out 30% of their account in a single trade.

Guys this TA thread is numbing my brain. I'm going crazy now. I've just finished reading every single post on this. You fellows are the most exacting insane detailed people EVER. I thought we were all just gamblers (And TA is a way to stay objective so we don't blow our plot) Can someone answer my limit down question when they get a chance.

So dalby do you think if one were trading on ICE electronically, if a GTC stop order were in the system, would it likely get executed on DAY 2 of the halt since for that 5 minutes at the open, it's in the system? Is the being stuck scenario only typical for pit traded contracts?

If it's locked limit down in ags, therefore selling is halted right? Then how do futures prices move lower the next subsequent days that it's halted, if no selling is allowed?

WOW $10.00 is a huge move in 1 day. I remember reading that about the 5 minute rule...and it did give me some confidence in the market...at least being able to liquidate eventually. I hear about these ag futures locking for DAYS, and that just freaks me out. How can people sleep at night if it kept moving against you, then what, the god forbidden margin call from the broker?

Can someone explain why crude oil (CL) does not seem to go into lock limit up or down as often as many ag futures do? Or better yet has anyone seen it happen at all?

Once a market goes Locked Limit Down or Up, what determines when the halt ends? Can it stay locked for days on end? I head of my friends father who got stuck in a gold contract for like a week and it was moving against him and he couldn't get out. Is this typical only in the past or can this happen today too....for days on end?

And ultimately of course if ICE were to take over CBOT, it would be CBOT/ICE vs NYMEX competing.

ICE is mainly a petroleum & natural gas exchange. CME/CBOT is a different market, so those numbers don't apply to us oil speculators. Really what we are talking about here is NYMEX vs ICE.

The worst though is when you get caught in a halt. And your on the wrong side of the gap. It's happened to me.

Have you watched this during the day. What are the intra-day charts like. erratic as hell?

Nice. Thanks for this info. I wonder what the spread is like.

If you are talking about futures, ICE has been around for some time now, it's the old international petroleum exchange (England), and I wouldn't consider it a second tier player. It already does the bulk of US OTC trading, and does near equal volume as NYMEX. Considering how London is now considered by many as the financial center of the world now, ICE seems a perfect setup, away from the bulk of US regulations.....hence huge volume shifting to England. Now is the time to strike while the irons hot.

Nobody ever said the DD was pit traded.