ericmoles

They charge ten thousand bucks. They won't show you statements to prove the guys on the phone actually trade. They use high pressure sales tactics to get you to make a quick, emotional decision and let you know that there are only a few slots so you need to make a decision now, or lose this opportunity forever. They pre-screen you with a nice guy and set up a phone interview with the 'closer'. I'd be curious to hear from anyone using there service how they like it. I know they associate with other industry participants. John Carter's Trade the Markets, Robert Prechter's Elliottwave International, and Bill Polous and whatever he sells. Curious.....

ZDO And I can understand what you are saying, but there are a couple of facts that Matt will have to deal with. 1 Most don't make it and 2 If he blows up, he'll have to find another stake to start over. It is my belief that the advice I've given Matt is based upon common traits of successful traders. If you have achieved success another way, that is great and we can all use the advice. Matt will have to decide what resonates with him and go from there. Without difference of opinion, we would have no markets ; )

I would never tell a real trader to find a job either, but MattSS isn't a real trader, yet ; ) As per leverage, it isn't that I don't recommend it, it is that I don't recommend if for MattSS, yet. We don't learn to drive in a Ferrari. Leverage is a tool, and will be around when MattSS needs it and is able to take advantage of it. Small building blocks of success and confidence and realistic expectations will do far more for MattSS's future than will a quick double of the account followed by a blow up. IMHO. See ya!

What zdo is referring to is how big a position, or the minimum value of a position you can trade. With a stock, the least you can trade is 1 share. With futures and options, the least you can trade is 1 contract. I'm not a forex trader, so maybe others will chime in here. A full size forex contract controls about 100,000 dollars of the currency you are trading. You get to profit or lose just like you owned the full 100,000, but you only have to put up a smaller amount (your margin) in order to trade that amount. I think most US forex dealers offer 50 to 1 leverage. This means that to control 100,000 you would only need 2,000 in your account. Futures offer around 10:1 to 20:1 leverage. Stocks offer 4:1 if you have 25000 in the account, and 2:1 to hold overnight. As a new trader, you don't need leverage. You need a plan and experience. Instead of trading 100,000, I think Oanda allows you to trade any dollar size you want (infinitely variable position sizing). I also think you can limit your leverage with them-- i.e. tell them " I don't want anymore than 20:1" and they can have the platform you trade on not let you buy anymore than that (self variable leverage). Again, I'm not a forex trader, but I think I get the basics. If anyone wants to correct me, please do so.

Here is a link to a good video/webinar to learn some of the basic components in order to become successful. TL! Videos If that link doesn't work, go to the video section of the TradersLaboratory website and search for 12 commandments of trading.

Matt, I have some advice for you, and you probably won't like it. I'm all about following your dreams and what I'm about to say may sound negative, but I just want to paint a realistic picture for you. Get a job and learn to trade on the side. This will be a slower path to producing your income from trading, but will provide less stress not having to rely on trading for a living and give you time to learn the lessons every trader learns on their path to success without losing as much money. Profitable trading is hard work and definitely not a get rich quick scheme. Commonly accepted failure statistics thrown around are 75-95% of people failing. There are many reasons for this, and a big one is under-capitalization. In my opinion, you should go nowhere near futures or options with only $5,000. The DOW moved in a 600 point range today. Not having dealt with the emotions that come with trading and having no plan, you could have easily blown out your account in one day. I've heard people say that a $25,000 account is SMALL to trade futures. Other reasons for failure are impatience and unrealistic expectations. In order to make $40,000, you would have to produce a return of 800%. That is the definition of unrealistic expectations. It is possible, it isn't probable (like winning with 7 2 offsuit or playing 10/20 blinds with a $100 bankroll). If you could consistently return 20-30% per year, you could be an all star hedge fund manager. For every trade you go long or short, there is someone taking the other side of your trade. Your competition will be much harder than the poker world. You will be competing against guys with more knowledge, ivy league education, more money, more technology, and research teams. In order to trade successfully, you need a plan that includes a system with a positive expectancy, patience, the discipline to follow your system, the ability to take smart and small losses and realize they are part of the game, the ability to let your winners run, and proper money management to keep you in the game and prevent a blow up. My suggested steps are: 1. Get a job 2. Start reading as much as you can about trading 3. Develop a system for the forex market 3. Back test that system or paper trade it until you have proven that you can make money with it 4. Trade the system risking no more than .5-1% per trade (25-50 bucks in the case of your 5000 acct) 5. Analyze your results 6. Keep compounding your winnings and adding to your acct. from your job savings if you are successful. 7. Add non-correlated systems or strategies as your account grows. 8. Come back and re-read this after you have decided not to heed my advice and donated your $5000 to other market participants. My suggested book for you is Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom by Van Tharp. Good luck!

Matt SS, I want to reply to your thread. In order to craft my response to your situation, I had a few questions. Were you playing poker for a living and was it your sole income or are you currently working another job? What size account will you be trading? What are your goals in trading? Supplement income, growth of retirement funds, speculative (looking for a win-fall), replacement of income? If you are looking to solely earn an income from trading, how much would you need to earn in order to consider yourself successful? Eric

Ahhh....gotcha! Those are tough decisions. It looks like Kroll advocates long term trend following with pyramiding. The futures markets are so leveraged, and you are right. A $25,000 acct. is small in order to position trade long term unless you have impeccable timing and tight stops. I think a spot currency market with a smaller single unit and aggressive growth of unit size (fixed ratio or something along those lines) would mix well with this style of a system if you decide to go the 'long term trend following' route. Enjoy the journey.

How much of a penetration through the EMAs will you allow and still take the signal? Concerning a new signal, you posted we would take it: "if price has retraced back to a level between the EMA's or even slightly below" Looking at the current S&P chart, the 21 is below the 65 ema, but how do we quantify 'slightly below/above'. After the necessary downturn in the Stoch RSI, would you be looking to short the S&P on a break of Friday's low?

OptionTimer, I'm enjoying your project and looking forward to seeing more. Nice work! I'm curious what you are using as an exit. Sorry if it was posted. I went back to look for it and didn't see it. I'm also looking forward to hearing about your money management and position sizing rules. Enjoy the weekend!

Cunparis, neither of the links in this thread worked for me. I'd like to check out your blog. -Eric

Well, I bought his program. So far, I like what I see. His intentions seem good. His material is thorough and well presented. He actually trades and has skin in the game. I addressed my concerns with him over him not describing his guarantee. Ante_up. 1% per month is nothing to to laugh at. This actually sold me on his program more than anything else. A big part of trading is realistic expectations. If you can consistently compound 1% per month for the rest of your life, you'll do very well. You may have made 30% or 100% in a month, but I would be willing to wager that you aren't consistently doing it, have high variability in your returns and that you are probably taking on too much risk and will blow up sooner rather than later. Besides, if you could consistently return 2-3% per month, you would have offers to manage BILLIONS of dollars and have to turn clients away.

Here is his latest email. He references the guarantee in the p.s. section. Funny he wants you to be swayed by this but he isn't willing to explain the details of it or talk about it. And if you want to know the details of an agreement, i.e. you've done your homework and due diligence, then this program probably isn't for you. "OK, I have a couple secret bonuses that I was only planning on telling you AFTER you enrolled in the class, but I'm just so excited ... I couldn't help but share ONE of them with you.... Those of you who enroll in the class before we close the doors will receive a limited series of 'LIVE Insider Webinars.' We'll gather together a few times a week and I'll present a LIVE analysis of the market and which trades I'm looking at ... PLUS, I'll answer a few questions before the market opens! This gives you a real life INSIDER look into a Professional Trader's game plan .... And, if you like that, there's A LOT more in store for you! Yours in trading success, Doc Severson P.S. Many of my colleagues think I'm crazy for offering such an outrageous guarantee ... but, I'm so sick and tired of all the B.S. sold on the market! I figured it was about time for someone to step up to the plate and put their money where their mouth is ... so, here you go!" Caveat Emptor

I listened to Doc's seminars. He advertises a money back guarantee if you aren't profitable after a year. I asked about this in his webinar and instead of answering to the group, he sent me a private message saying he wasn't going to discuss it in the webinar. He also said that if I was interested in the money back guarantee, that this program probably wasn't for me. I say, hey, you offered it and I want the details. He uses a lot of gimmicky sales techniques like, I can only accept a limited number of students so act now, and ' we're holding an EMERGENCY webinar'. I don't know what to think of this crew. He said to expect to make one percent a month. So to pay for this program in a year, you would need to be trading a 20000 account (roughly). I'd be curious to hear of other's experience with or thoughts of him and his program

For what it is worth, I've heard that scaling in and scaling out can improve results, but that you don't want to do both in the same trade. If you scale in, your avg. entry price is higher (assuming long for this example). When you scale out, your avg. exit price is lower. A higher entry and lower exit price means less $ won in your trade. Testing would need to be done on a system to see if any of what I've just said/heard affects your results.

No problem. I've also heard that if 30 is a minimum, 100 would be a better sample size in a data set. I'd say experiment with varying lengths above 30 and see what seems to fit more often.

I'm no expert on linear regression channels, but a guy that I respect uses a 30 day channel. I've heard that using statistics to describe a set of data, 30 numbers are a minimum to have a sample that is beyond chance. I think you could use 30 on a daily or 5 minute chart. You could go with a higher number, but I wouldn't go any lower.