peterjerome

david, #1 - i hold "until"... as long as it's profitable. here's the current folio showing entry dates: CAM - 1000 on 05/27/10 @ $38 HAL - 1000 on 11/15/10 @ $36.66 ANDE - 1000 on 01/11/11 @38.92 UNH - 2000 (2 positions) 01/11/11 avg $39.66 TBL - 2000 on 01/18/11 @ $33.19 PM - 650 on 02/23/11 @ $61.80 ODFL - 2000(2 positions) 03/17/11 avg $34.27 IBN - 500 on 03/24/11 @ $47 since i started this methodology EVERY month for last 7 months is profitable.avg roi 5.1% #2 there are tons of books on PnF available. i have "Point & Figure Charting" by Thomas J. Dorsey. Stockcharts.COM has pretty good PnF charting for free. check this page at stockcharts. it lists many indice that track various sectors, using a 'percentage' basis. e.g. how many stocks in the energy sector are on buy or sell signals? many sectors available. this gives great look at those sectors turning up or down. i use this as additional qualification for entry. StockCharts.com - Free Charts - Symbol Search #3...i'm not an options guy but the book has a chapter on this topic. the easiest option for going long would be an 'in the money"call when you have double-top breakout. i have a methodology on trading that is based on finding candidates with PnF charts. i use standard bar charts for entry. also strategy for exit, but too complicated to go into here. ask any question david. good trading, peter.

MM, sounds like a good plan to me. thanks for sharing. peter.

Mighty, here's a little clarification on my shorting strategy we discussed. i will definitely Short in a Bear mkt. like 1987...be crazy not to. how to determine Bear Mkt? the absolute best indicator for determining mkt direction is the NYSE Bullish Percent Indicator. it's based on PnF charts. to use it effectively, you must really understand how it works. if you are not already aquainted with this indicator, i would highly recommend due dilligence research on this indicator. you won't regret it. see chart on stockcharts.COM. Symbol = $BPNYA. change the box size to "3". stockcharts sets the default at "2". hope this clarifies my strategy. good trading, peter.

yes, but not nearly as much as i trade now. i find it mentally stimulating...keeps the mind shart...that's a good thing at 71. peter.

Mighty, PnF reversal is factored into my exit strategy, however it's not "raw". support / resistance levels are typically 'tested'. consider the bar chart below on ANDE, one of my current positions. 12/01/10 entry @ 33.30 12/07/10 price makes new High @ 38 12/14 10 PnF reversal @35, Low 'tests' exit @ 34.81, volume down -40%, supply weak. 'typical test' 12/15/10 next bar Low @ 35.02, barely above exit, volume stronger (shows demand) 12/16/10 price opens above exit and closes below. volume down -15%, supply weak. 12/17/10 bar close up 1% with volume up 130% demand strong. remaining bars all make higher lows. demand trending up SO when the price drops below exit, supply is weak and when price moves above exit, demand is strong. so i sit tight.and enjoy the ride. on the shorting thing...i used to short and would occasionally find myself on both sides of the market, Long & Short at same time. i found this awkward. like cheering for both sides of the market. i have to be EITHER a buyer OR seller and i'm not about to pass up a profitable Long opportunity just so i can short. trust me mighty, i'm not missing out. don't cry for me agentina. thanks for posting, good trading, peter.

mighty, good questions. yes, i am a Long only player. i find it easier to stay in the mindset of a buyer all the time. i'm in the trade until the primary trend changes. however, you have to be able to 'ride' through the 'normal' volatility in trend. if the normal peak to valley movement is 8-10%, so be it. you have to be able to detect when the stock is 'range bound' and sit tight. at the end of range period, uptrend may resume. the primary trend change involves a lower high, a lower low, then a break below that last lower low. knowing where support/resistance levels occur is key. PnF can help here. on your question of preventing long entry into weak market, i use other techniques to judge market direction. again, PnF is very useful in locating supply / demand relationships on market indicies. i look for a PnF pattern known as 'bullish reversal'. hope this is helpful. good trading to you mighty, peter.

Anatomy of a Trade: The two charts attached will be helpful in understanding trading methodology. PnF chart and standard bar chart. Start with basket of 'fundamentally' sound equities, i.e. CANSLIM. i use PnF charts to identify setups, then switch to standard bar charts to identify entry opportunities. PnF is superior for determining Supply & Demand relationships, and in identifying Support & Resistance levels. it's also extremely easy to determine reward / risk. if you are not already using R/R, your profits are most likely not consistent. intra-day traders typically use R/R ratio of "2" because the very short-term trade is either going with you or against you. a 50/50 proposition. inter-day traders(swing & position) should look for R/R of "3". using PnF it's easy to locate R/R of "5" or greater. it will help to learn some PnF basics. you do not, however, need to be an expert. Strategy: scan the basket daily after market close looking for "double-top with rising bottom" patterns. it's effective (80% profitability) and easy enough to identify manually. if your trading platform supports java script, you can take your scanning to the next level through use of .efs programs embedded into your PnF charts. i'm a position trader, but this technique also suits other interday (NOT intraday) traders. The PnF chart shows the dbl-top pattern forming. when the pattern is at the stage shown in chart, add stock to watch-list and monitor daily with standard bar chart. this will give an opportunity to get in at a more advantageous price. the column of green Xs on the far right shows the dbl-top forming. this pattern is 2 boxes($2) away from the breakout. now is the time to switch to standard bar chart...see standard bar chart. a simple method to calculate potential target price is shown on PnF chart. calculating reward/risk is shown on standard bar chart. Standard bar chart. the first red arrow (2/17/11) identifies reversal up. at this point the dbl-top pattern is $2 away from the 'breakout'. 4 bars later, on 2/24/11, Low drops to 29.89. no reversal down happens as Low must drop to 29. at the 2nd red arrow, 3/3/11, entry occurs. all 5 entry requirements are met. study and understand these entry requirements. Entry requirements: CCI makes trend line break(TLB), concurrent with the TLB, CCI also crosses above the zero line(ZL), AND crosses above the +100 line. crossing both the ZL and +100 level within a single bar is a very significant event in and of itself. executing a TLB in addition makes it highly significant. additionally the entry bar is an UP bar(close > open), volume exceeds prior day volume, and swing low pivot occurs. swing low pivot is a 3 bar pattern consisting of a low (bar1), a lower low(bar2), and higher low(bar3). the initial stop loss is set from the PnF chart @ 29. in PnF, this would be a reversal back down that makes a dbl-bottom breakout. a clear exit. you can use a trailing stop as price continues up, or any other exit management you prefer. i.e. average true range(ATR), whatever... your choice. going back to the PnF chart you can see our 'real' objective is to capitalize on the dbl-top breakout @ $34. if this breakout occurs we will be in at a very desirable price indeed. Note: the black-dashed line at top of standard bar chart is 52wk high @ 34.75. no doubt this will come into play later. You can see the Reward/Risk calculation on chart. Use the target price obtained from PnF. Have fun...post any question. Peter.

giving up is just another form of failing. peter.

big fan of PnF charts. extremely useful in locating high probability patterns.(candidates). i trade these setups using conventional bar charts. invest in a good book...ie. Thomas J. Dorsey "the essential application for forecasting and tracking market prices" good luck, peter.

in casino gambling you at least have a slight chance of winning. the online gamblers are the real addicts. they know they are being cheated and still transfer their monthly home mortgage payments to an offshore account in Costa Rica. for those of you that understand and enjoy poker, you will love this video showing an absolute poker.com tournament. you can pause the game and see ALL the hands.this is the view that Scott Tom, AKA "Potripper" had when he scammed $20 million. google "The Absolute Poker Scandal" peter

i record every single trade...very easy to do in eSignal. when i analyzed these trades it became CRYSTAL clear what i was doing wrong and why i was losing money. i just stopped repeating the wrong behavior...it.wasn't that complicated. simple really.i believe the REAL wake-up call comes AFTER you lose a LOT of money. fi learn very little when things go right, but everything from my mistakes.. the lost money is really tuition at the 'school of hard knocks'...expensive, but worth it. peter.

granpa74, you uncovered the 'secret'...."learn what you are doing wrong and STOP doing it." IF there was a 'perfect' system and it was given to 100 traders(along with $10,000) you would have: 2% made a ton, 10% are making a good living 88% would lose everything. same with giving a scapel to 100 people. my journey parallels yours...at some point you just "get it", and things turn around. one of the ten percenters continued success to you. peter (AKA granpa 71)

you're giving a HUGE portion of your profits to pay commissions. the current strategy doesn't seem viable to me....just an opinion. couple of questions 1- did you 'optimize' you efs strategy for the e-mini? 2- have you looked at fewer trades with higher targets? 3- are you using an auto-trader? peter.

Mixed, i use this techinque in excel. do you have a data feed? my data feed is eSignal. it supports DDE. this allows reading data (stock prices) directly in excel. if you have a data feed and are calculating the relative strength, you only need to add a row that display's (current) today prices. here is the eSignal support: =winros|LAST!nov gets today's value for NOV (other prices available, eg change, high, low,) peter.

ingot, your journey parallels mine, a search for the holy grail. trying every new system that came along. like btrader, i was constantly trading, trying to 'force' the market to reward me. my ah-ha came when i realized i was doing this...'forcing'. i now let the market pull me...i am in charge of setting rules of engagement. i've talked about my method in past posts. i switched from day trading, to my current strategy, trading 'daily' bars. i'm a position trader and hold positions for months vs days. my results have been dramatic...consistent ROI returns of 4.5% to 5.5% on a monthly basis. able to maintain an active lifestyle now and live off the proceeds. the problem i have now (a good problem) is how do i decide which equity to replace with a better gainer....not a simple matter of replacing the one with the lowest gain. good trading to all, peter.

more will rogers: 3 of 10 stocks on the W.R. breakout list triggered and are profitable. ATK, ANDE, UNH. could TBL be next...27 getting close WARNING, TRADING IS VERY RISKY...YOU COULD LOSE ALL YOUR MONEY !!! peter.

"I''ve got my eye on two more on the *if it don't go don't buy* list"...ANDE...UNH. Will Rogers

Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it. Will Rogers Genius...was Will talking about Breakouts? IF they don't go up, you DON'T buy. for those following the breakout stuff, I listed 10 breakout candidates earler and 9 of them didn't go up. the one that did go up was ALK. if you bought ALK at breakout on 1/7/11 you're up 3.4%. breakout traders see the nuance comments on BB(bollinger band) on attached chart if you use the CCI method(my preference) you're up +10%. i posted earlier on this method, but here's the analysis for ALK. entry on 1/5/11 two days before the breakout. requirements for entry: 1) trendline break TLB, 2)cross above significant level. (in this case the +100 line), 3) Swing Low Pivot occurs. (LOW followed by Lower LOW, followed by Higher LOW there are also several nuances identified. (nuances increase your edge slightly like getting 51% vs. 50% in Vegas). nuances become more "visible" the more years you watch them. . peter

correction to above post - double tops w/ trigger price ALK - alaska air.the double top is 59 NOT 54. the entry would be 60. sorry for the typo peter. NOTE: THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY! INTENDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY! STOCK TRADING IS RISKY AND YOU CAN LOSE REAL $$$

Crabby, here are several stocks showing a PnF Double Top Pattern. trigger entry possibility when price moves $1 above current high. NOTE: THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY! INTENDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY! STOCK TRADING IS RISKY AND YOU CAN LOSE REAL $$$ Stock - Trigger Price ALK -54 PM - 61 ANDE - 39 UNH - 39 TBL - 27 CXW - 27 SEIC - 25 TAM - 26 NNI - 25 ATRO - 24

crabbydog, no automation used. i manually screen basket of 250 stocks at EOD. takes 15 mins. i use 'voice' alerts that identify charts having Double Top pattern.this feature is programable within eSignal.However, you do not need any 'alert' capability. simply look at the chart in PnF and the Double Top is obvious. once the double top is formed i monitor stock daily watching for breakout. at this point i know the 'exact' trigger price. entry i look for CCI TLB (trendline break), a Swing Low point, volume. the pivot line you refer to is a swing low pivot usefull in exiting. i also use the PnF reversal in exit management. See an earlier post showing the ' three strikes & out' for exit management. good luck, Peter,

youngsequan, use advanced search top of this page. for "peterjerome" look at post dated 11/24/2010 2 charts attached for NOV show technique used for breakouts using PnF chart. check it out...if you have any questions, ask. Peter.

Same every year. "Do the Right thing!" (putting the other person ahead of myself)