peterjerome

zupcon, so true..i searched years for the holy grail and ultimately learned simple is better. you do NOTneed the holy grail to be a successful position trader peter

sdoma, on jan 6, i posted a 10 stock breakout folio using the Will Rogers strategy. using a simple stop buy with no management (not recommended).... 6 stocks triggered buy (currently long). 5 winners, 1 loser. current gain (3.5 months) is $4,358 or 17.5%.. 60% annual. reasonable money mgmt most likely would improve the performance. personal current foloi (using similar strategy) is up 8 straight months $130K or 39.4%. 59% annual.that's NET income after all expenses. what category would you use here, warren buffett? fwiw, i make my living soley through trading. peter .

OOPs...my bad:crap: peter

small point. making the money is easy.....keeping it...now that's a whole different thing. peter.

Jason,...the jury is still out??? from your daily chart... in 2 yr., 2009 through 2010, you turned $20K into $160K...that's what, 700%? 350% annual ROI? what am i missing? WT? is the jury doing? peter.

perhaps the retirees 'retiirement plan' was not well thought out.the change in role compounded with possible worries over health and financial issues. all this stress could contribute to a shorter life span. i retired at 55 and began a very active lifestyle...surrounding myself with great friends i love.. couple that with no financial worries due to income from stock trading..... it doesn't get much better than that! peter.

MM, i knew that! i love sharing ideas...my biggest fear is that eventually everyone will figure out my methodology and there goes my edge. it's the "fallacy of composition"., like arriving early to get a good seat. peter

MM, true enough...taking a random Long position when market is already headed north, and converse for a Short positon will significantly improve the odds. however, the whole point of the coin flip (as i understand it) was could you be successful with a random entry when using a 2-1 reward / risk. peter.

this topic came up a few years back when i was on Woodies CCi site, so woodie put it to a test. go long / short on next bar open determined by coin flip. target = 10, stop =5. it was profitable. not rocket science...price is either going up or down, no? peter

if your interest is soley in guppy method, sorry i can't help you. IF your interest is in calculating price targets, see the chart below for an easy, reliable, free methodology. technique uses Point & Figure charts. peter.

Or misery loves company...

EXACTLY... we generate the results we believe we deserve. peter.

sounds like you know exactly WHAT you are doing wrong....now, just STOP doing it. it is within you to do that. peter.

a drawdown is a drawdown...it's either open(stay in trade) or closed (exit trade) peter.

good guess, but no cigar.

amen Loustar. all great points. i'd like to put your "riches beyond dreams" into a real perspective. years back, in my search for the holy grail, i attended a presentation on a well know software system. over 100 "traders" attended. the product developer showed how to turn $1,000 into over $10,000,000 using his product. the strategy was simple...buy and sell on signals and re-invested 100% of gains. (compounding the ROI). as the gains piled up, so did the number of shares purchased. at the end of the demonstration i asked him two questions... #1"how can you buy over 2x the average volume and not move the market? ...#2 what was the max open drawdown? answer #1..."this is just an example..yada, yada, yada." answer #2...40% drawdown. i sat down, turned to the guy sitting next to me and asked "could you sleep at night with those DDs?" he said..."IF i'm GOING to make 10 million, i'm not going to worry about the DD. thanks for sharing, peter.

noego, you make sense to me. sounds like you walk the walk! one thing i would add is "They'" have lost a bundle...more than once. how about an informal poll of all those who make their living trading? all forms, day, swing, position, investors, speculators, market makers, gamblers. hedge managers... anybody out there?

Re: Why Do More Than 90% of Traders Lose? interesting thread. so...if 90% are losing, 10% must be winning? seems reasonable some of those 90 percenters are on this board sharing their secrets. are there any ten-percenters here too? if only there was a way to tell the difference. perhaps we generate the results we think we deserve. peter

interesting that many speak of their strategy as if it was the holy grail that needs no supervision. we have auto-pilot systems that are in contol of the takeoff, the flight itself, and the landing...all without aid of a pilot. what real purpose does the pilot serve? would anyone actually board a plane that was pilot-less? i don't monitor the P&L column, but i do keep an eye on the price action...just in case unforseen turbulance develops. after many years of unsuccessful trading strategies, i am finally consistently in the black. that works for me... good trading, peter.

i NEVER take my eye off the prize. i'l leave that to the autotraders. peter.

profit vs. strategy?....not a case of chicken or egg. profit is the objective. strategy is your plan to secure objective. execute the strategy with precision & commitment, but keep your eye on the objective. or so it seems to me. peter.

start with basket of good fundamentals, look for PnF double-top breakouts. peter

david, here's a practical and useful explanation of using PnF to determine market direction. my entry strategy incorporates similar concepts.this is a powerful concept when used correctly. make it part of your 'system'...can save your behind.... Market Breadth: Point & Figure Internal Indicators good trading, peter.

david, here's some additional detail on exit strategy. this is usefull for all position traders or investors. #1 first clue, the weekly chart shows a lower HIGH and lower LOW #2 price opens and closes below the LSMA-25. (25 period least square moving average) #3 PnF chart shows a double bottom. (not a breakout, just the bottom) LSMA is a version of Woodies CCI system. installed the LSMA into price pane. CCI is the only indicator in separate pane. i believe this MA is supported on other platforms.) today i closed my long position in CAM and can re-deploy assets. good trading, peter

david, i have 10yrs of ALL trades in a real-time folio. i can look at any past trade(chart) and determine exactly what went right or wrong...ie, weak entry, or bad exit strategy. this has helped tremendously to see exactly where i went wrong. over the years i've been able to correct most everything i was doing wrong. about 60% of trades are profitable. the ones that go against me are closed quickly, so losses are small compared to winners. you can see the current folio i posted has 8 positions. they are all profitable anywhere from 2% (recent trade) to 52% (10 mos). the average current gain for the entire folio is 19%. you can see the entry dates and prices from my last post. i've posted several times on my entry strategy. i don't use profit targets or fixed stops. i don't have a pre-determined time-frame for how long to hold an equity... i stay long until the primary trend reverses. for exit strategy, i watch the relative strength of equity compared to S&P500, watch the 'sector' for a sell signal and watch the primary trend for weakness. i track the average daily gains and eliminate those equities that 'are not pulling their weight' and replace with another candidate. some stocks will last only a week, some 9 mos. or anything in between. search my user name..you can see earlier charts showing entry strategy. the ONLY indicator i use is CCI.this way i don't have 'paralysis of analysis). fwiw...i traded for about 15 yr. (and lost a bundle...several times) before i started 'getting it'. my last post referred to an average 5% monthly(60% annual) gain for last 7 mos. this is AFTER i deduct ALL living expense...all life style costs, food, clothes, travel, vacations, cruising, housing, the 5% monthly gain is really an increase of net worth. good trading, peter