Colonel B

This is not true. I realize its an opinion but if you are trying to make money then it has almost no connection. The main reason is because of from the start of the post no one has been able to define what a loser is and the definition is automatically assumed that its a loss. In trading a loss is not always a loss and a profit is not always a profit. You need a better way to measure then win/loss. Most traders I know do not measure success by win/loss but rather account size. I did look at my ladder for the month and I am in the high 60s and after looking at a few months I can hit low 70s. But what does that mean? Not much really. It does not tell you what size stop I am using or how much profit I am taking. What you really need to know is how many scratch trades am I taking. Am I 70% winners 20% scratch trades and 10% losers? Is the scratch trades winners or losers? Or is my actual number 50% winners 20% scratch and 30% losers? There is a huge difference in the 2 examples. When I win I take 4-8 ticks and when I lose I only allow 2-3 ticks at the most. This is huge compared to if you use a 10 point stop and are looking to take 10 ticks. Chances are the 10 point stop guy isn't taking scratch trades. It is the opposite way prop traders trade. It is impossible to build size if you are taking 10 point losses. For me I scratch a trade because its annoying me. So either way if its 50% winners or 70% winners I am making money. If you go by just win/loss you don't get the full picture and even at 70% the guy that has a 10 point stop isn't making money. Even this information is incomplete. There are times that I will make a good trade before the market opens and my will to take another trade greatly diminishes. Are there other trades that work after I leave? Yea sure there is. Some guys would count that as a winning trade with profit unrealized. SIZE!!!! You hit the nail on the head. That is the answer. Good traders build size. Forget all that total net tick crap. This is again another fallacy. By not building size you are putting yourself at a huge disadvantage. Is it easier to make 500 bucks with 10 contracts or with 1? If you have to make 500 bucks on each trade you could do that really easy with 10 contracts and not so much with just 1. When I was early in my trading carer all I wanted to do was trade the 6E and be on those sexy 100+ tick winners. That is what makes sense because the thing moves. Everything about this 6E thinking is foolish. The cartman guy suggested maybe moving to a different market. I disagree fully with what he said. What he should of said is... If you trade a different instrument then maybe your bad habits that are preventing you from being successful will be easier to get away with on a different instrument. The main reason is that the things that make markets move are the same on the ES as they are anywhere else. If I trade the 10 year I use 2 ticks (sometimes 3), the 6E (very rare I trade it anymore) 2-3 ticks, 30 year 2 ticks, and the CL 2-3 ticks. Another thing you mentioned was that you only look at the ES intraday. This is a huge disadvantage. I cant imagine anyone in the prop world not using correlated markets. If you have been trading for 10 years on the ES and you are not using any other markets I really want to know why. To me that like saying I drive a car but I can only cope with the break or the gas so I only use the gas. You need both to get to where ever you are going safely. Have you tried using the note and the 30 to help with trades? I don't want to sound like I am talking down to you because its totally possible that you have never been introduced to the concept and hopefully it doesn't come across that way. Correlating the 10 year with the ES is really the biggest advantage you have when trading the ES. Also when you build your size you can quit the ES and trade the 10 year and use the correlation the other way. My guess is that you are not doing that because no one has shown you how. If you are trading the ES and you don't have a 10 year note next to it you are really missing something.

Some of the replies so far are incorrect. There are a few systems that are 90% and even 90%+. However these systems are not profitable. The ones that have a remote chance to be profitable will only take 40+ years to do so. So if you want to trade at 90% then realize you need to find a real job to support yourself. Also the 40 year plan will require you to keep putting funds into your account every month. I would imagine that this forum is filled with 90% plans. Now ask if those same plans have any real profits and that is a different story. 90% systems are usually the most difficult to trade. As a new trader you really don't want to trade a 90% system. The reason is simple. 90% systems are not more profitable then a system that is 40% that is profitable. I don't believe that there is a system that is 90% and legal that doesn't cost an insane amount of emotional capital. They usually rank 10 out of 10 on the effort scale and are below 5 out of 10 on the profit scale. Are you looking to trade a system that fits some criteria? Are you looking for a system that makes money? There is a difference between the questions. Are you are looking for a system that fits the criteria of making money? If so then how much emotional capital are you willing to spend?

Thanks for the info. This message has to be 20 characters long ..............

Kind of a noob question but what is an OP? Also what is the large gold "C" under a persons handle?

Hey Bob. On days where there is no OTF and just short term traders buyers are NOT buyers. They are actually sellers. The reason for this is because of the nature of short term or shorter term traders. Consider how short term retail traders trade. They all use lagging confirming indicators. Math based indicators that get them in far into the move. The typical stop and profit target for retail traders is 8 ticks or 2 points. Why is this important? Because if you get enough of these types of trades going in the same direction the market stalls and cant go any further. Why??? Because all buys are now sells 8 ticks above where the market is from where they bought it. In order for it to go higher now there has to be just as many new buyers to come in at the higher price so the first buyers can get out. How many retail guys don't use stops? How many retail guys don't use an 8 tick or less profit target? The trick is to understand the behavior of the retail market and to keep yourself from doing what they do. They are waiting for green candles to buy and waiting for it to break out before placing an order. I watch the red candles and look to buy so I can be as early as I can with what I do. If its a green candle I am looking to sell. Again this is in the context of no OTF. On an open drive day where its clearly in rally mode then yea I don't fade that. You don't want to get in where the retail players (short term guys) are getting in if you can avoid it. Why? Lets say you have the direction right and lets say that every other person that is using a doji wedgie, abandon baby, MACD, Hiso, Moving average has it right too. And lets say the direction is up. Will it work? Maybe. Odds are it wont just because you are aliened with those guys. Why? Because after 5 mins of being in a trade with out it going anywhere they start to get out and in order to go flat they have to sell. Hope this makes some common sense to trading.

Yea Glass Onion I have searched a lot of info on a lot of phones and phone plans. You might get different results depending on the area you live. But the best phone for trading in my area is a 20 dollar GO phone. Its a NOKIA that at the time came right in the GO phone box. Im not sure if you can still buy the phone with the card. You might need to buy the phone and the card separately. I think its 20 bucks every 90 days. Its pretty cheep compared to all the other plans I looked at. I use this phone EVERY DAY for trading so I know its reliable. I have only had to use it a few times over the years so its paid for itself many times over. I have my brokers order desk programed into the #5 and in case of an emergency with my net, connection, or comp I just hold #5 for 3 sec and tell the guy at the other end my account number and to close all positions. The other posts so far seem to suggest that you were some how going to place orders on your phone. I know you are too smart for that. Why do that anyway when you can just call the order desk and tell them to place an order like the old days? So you dont need a 2GIG iphone to just place a call for trading. Unless you want an iphone because its cool or gives you some sort of status. So yea buy the NOKIA call the order desk and put the extra cash in your pocket.

My bad Bob I thought from your post earlier you were some how defending the worlds elite trading school. My thought on this is that I dont see what the original post really did to bring common sense to trading. In fact I am surprised at how little it really brought. Also I put that guy on my permeant ignore list so I cant see his post anymore. Mostly because this post and many others that he posted are simple solicitations to yet another trading room. I bet if you pony up the 2500 you can get him to call some trades. LOL What part of my third paragraph was confusing?

Hey bro. Fricken awesome thread. You hit it out of the park in just 3 pages. They should put a stickie on this so every one can read it. Oh yea I use MD. Try the 4 P&F on the Spoo.

Most of the original post is incorrect. First off the 5th wasn't even a trend day. If nothing else it was a normal day or rotational day. This is a day traders dream. Almost all of the entire day was held inside the IB. I am not sure why any one would think this is a trend day. It has NO signs of even remotely being a trend day. It opened in the previous days range and was even in the range a 5 day balance. The IB held with in 5 ticks and the opened got walked on all day. How is this a trend day??? I AGREE NEVER FADE A TREND DAY!!!!!! There is nothing on the 5th that says it trended what so ever. Also your comments about what pros do is way off. First off pros dont use any stochastic or any other lagging indicator. They use market flow and order flow. At least the ones that get a paycheck do. Also pros don't wait for it to go sideways. This is indeed false. The biggest thing thing a trader has to learn to do is to buy when the candle is red. The best trades fly in the face of what is going on. Figure out where the stops are and then trade the 10 year. Pros manage risk they don't wait for conformation. Your trade is more risky then the pro guy that faded the IB on that day. But honestly that late in the day most prop guys are already gone. Any prop guy that had any worth in trading would of faded the previous days high when they saw it break above the IB. Seriously day traders buy the lows and sell the highs. Not sure what you mean about "the big guys" because on the 5th there was nothing but short term traders. NO OTF. Thats why it was in balance all day and why the IB held in every bracket the entire day. Basing your odds on if a trade will work using a smaller stop loss vs potential profit isn't figuring out the odds. Your odds DECREASE the longer you wait and the further away from the turn around you are. If you would of just faded the IB and got in you would of had a trade that was 100% successful by the time you got in. Also 1 more thing prop guys don't use 8 tick stops. Only retail guys trade 8 tick stops. NO way would a prop guy use that big of stop on either the ES or the ZB or the ZN . Pro guys use 2 tick stops. 8-6 means you are last, late, or just wrong on your entry. If you wait to take +16 on the ES before you take profit then there is a good chance you don't really trade. You are going to risk 8 thats great but where do you start to take profit? +16? Makes no sense. Pros don't trade that way. Also if you think its going to go +16 in the ES then why are you trading the ES. Every pro knows to trade the bonds. I realize you are just trying to sell some sort of system or some sort of class or something else. Chances are I will get a response from one of the full time forum guys and not from the original poster because of the sales implication in the original post. According to the little blip at the bottom it says that some guy read over 40,000 pages of books. Hey reading is great but actually trading or doing is better. If it took over 10 years for that guy to figure out this then I have no real fear for him. You are way better off figuring out what works from some one who knows and actually done it then to read some 40,000 pages of stuff that leads you to this. Seriously go back to B school.

I tried Sierra for about 60-90 days. I am totally biased on this one to be honest. However my background isn't in computer programing or anything like the other posters. I took 1 class in school on c++ and I hated it. What I use: Think Or Swim (TOS), Market Delta (MD), DTN for my feed, and Ninja Trader (NT). And the reasons for this are simple. #1 I can pick up the phone and call some one and ask them to log onto my comp and fix it. #2 If I cant do that then there are regular classes that I can drop into on a daily basis, and ask a question to a live person and get an answer right on the spot. #3 I can send my chart and indicator definitions by email and with in a matter of minutes you can be looking at the same thing I am. I learned how to really trade on MD so maybe I have more time on it and didn't give Sierra a fair chance. But I don't see figuring out how to use Sierra as an adventure but more like torture. It does have some great tools I hear. I think its an advanced piece of software and for the price it really cant be beat. The price is phenomenal and is its most strongest advantage it has over its comdpetideters. But ToS is free and you can drop into "swim lessons" and learn how to use the basic functions in a day. So all in all I think if you can get past the steep learning curve then you will be in good shape. For me if I had some sort of drop in class to show me instead of "here you go, get to it" or a library of movies that answered simple questions then I think I would like it more. All the posts so far have been positive and after rereading my own post it kind of sounds negative. I don't think Sierra lacks in any of the indicators or charts or is inferior in anyway it that regard to what I use. My only issue (and it might be personal preference) is that it only has a forum and user guide to get answers. I prefer a class or a phone call or the ability to import chart definitions. If anything that I have mentioned sounds like you then I would avoid Sierra and go with the more expensive stuff. DO NOT just go with it just because of the cost!!! If you do you may find yourself spending more time frustrated then actually getting work done. Thats what I did. However if trying to figure out a piece of software that is the equivalent to sending a shuttle into space with what I consider no support then you will have a ball.

I am curious. What is the 1:1 conversion for the FX size to future size for which you are mentioning with the 13%? Yea if you are trading minis on the FX and 1 pip = 1 cent per contract then yea you can put on a whole bunch. Its true you cant get smaller then 12.50 per pip/tick on the futures side. But that goes back to what I said about being underfunded. In these situations its better to build up your size and get into something with a bigger tick/pip payout. So I don't think players that are successful stay in those markets for very long. Just increasing size larger and larger. Totally spot on on the US bit. Thats where I live and trade from. If you have a tax advantage trading in the UK then yea that makes sense. Good post

Hey Bob What I have read and what is actually happening are quite unrelated. The most unintuitive thing to do as a trader this day in age is to buy low and to sell high. So no its not common sense. You can say it over and over but what people do is completely different then buying low and selling high. Are you suggesting that people who don't do this don't have any common sense? Are you implying that this thread didn't start with a commercial? Or are you perhaps a graduate of the worlds most elite trading school? I didn't mean to play down your Alma Mater. I am jealous really. In fact my tuition for 1 semester at the school I attended was 5 times more then what seems to be the entire program of the worlds elite trading school. I must of over paid for my education. In fact at the time paying that much to me was cheep considering the school. It wasn't the worlds most elite trading school or anything like that, but it is in the top 10 MBA programs in the US. As far as the ES and things that are not common sense let me explain. Buyers are not buyers they are sellers in the short term. Buyers are not buyers unless they are in a longer time frame then what you are trading. Common sense is correlated markets but out of most of the posts (including this one) there is no mention of such things. However that common sense is only after some one who trades informs you. So how can it really be common sense? Also no mention of divergence of said correlated markets. Common sense is that you should be able to talk to any business owner about markets because they in fact determine value the same way traders do. However the truth is that it is easier to talk to some one about trading who is a failure at trading then it is to talk to some one successful outside of trading. Trading is not intuitive for most people. The most common sense about this thread is that this whole thing was started by the self-proclaimed worlds most elite trading school in hopes to get others to sign up. So Bob what is your testimony of this elite school? What elite qualities did you acquire from your attendance? What did your 2500 get you?

TOTALLY AGREE!!! The main reason why I think people trade the FX markets as opposed to the future equivalent is simply because they are underfunded. Basically the forex traders get bled to death. So far I haven't been introduced to any strategy that is better used, implemented, and executed on FX.

Is it just me or is the first post seem to be more of an advertisement for the most elite trading school? Even though I agree with about half of the post the rest seems hardly elite. I wonder what the cost is to go to the worlds elite trading school? I saw this post in my email and I had no idea that it was going to be about what it was about. I will say this though. Most things in trading are not common sense. I kind of wish it was but unfortunately it is not.

There is a company that I was introduced to that was selling a subscription with indicators that boasted a 90% and 90%+ win rate. They were and I think still are totally affordable. The charts that you needed to rent or use were the cheapest and the most affordable package I have seen yet. I am not sure if I can mention the name of the company or not I will have to get back to you on that. Did the indicators work? That is the most important thing most people will tell you. Are they really 90% accurate? That is what most people especially here are looking for. That is what makes the most sense. Must be a scam!!! Nothing is that good. I had a friend tell me if it was that good he would get a loan if he had to to make this work. Affordable charts, affordable indicators, and 90% "+" accuracy. "Well I would have to back test it myself." Guess what the indicators are in fact 90%. So I traded it and lived happily ever after? WRONG No one is up for the year trading the system I mentioned. The only people making money over there are the ones selling the subs. What went wrong? How can a system that is affordable and works 90 "+" % not make money. Here is how. #1 The core would only take a certain trade a day. If you gauge the indicators against 1 trade then yes you get higher results but you lose all the flexibility of having days that could of been winners if you had taken another trade. But regardless its 90% right? #2 Yes it is 90% but the stop out was 51+pip (or tick depending on the market) stop loss vs. 10 pip/tick profit. If you want higher then 90% one of the trainers uses a 101 pip stop out for a 10 tick profit. YIKES! Guess what you can have a 90%+ win rate and still lose money. Lets do some quick math in case this concept isn't coming through. Say you have 100 trading days and with 90% that is 90 winning days! Not bad. So with 90 wins at 10 pips with 1 contract is 900 USD in your account (not including commissions). YEA not bad. But what about the losers? That is 10 days losing at 51 ticks is -510 in losses. So that is 390 after you take your losses. Still not bad. However lets add commissions. Its roughly 3+ pips on forex for an account that small but we will go with 3. 3 pips to the broker x 100 trades( you have to pay for the bad ones too :P) = 300 in commissions. 390-300 is well 90 USD that you can make with 1 contract with a 90% system in roughly 6 months. That is roughly 200 bucks a year. This is with out any errors on your part and if you don't make any mistakes. Now all you have to do is keep your full time job and get a part time job so you can afford to keep the charts and indicators going and you can trade a 90% system. So what about the 90+% win rate with the 101 stop? Well at 95 % you can make 145 that is only 55 dollars more over 6 months by doubling your stop out. OK what is wrong with that? I must hate making money to have a problem with that! NO the problem is what will happen if the 95% comes off just a little bit. To go from 95% to 90 percent with the same stop loss is -410. Yea and its still a 90% wining system! What about the 90% system with the 51 pip coming off 5% down to 85%? -215 after commissions. And this is still an 85% WIN rate system. This is how you lose money and still have a high win rate. Why did I go through this whole run down to tell you this? So hopefully you can learn from my experience and not have to take so long till you are making money. What did I learn? Don't put so much emphasis on win rate or win percentage. It is important but not the only thing. It is part and maybe a small part of the equation. Yes you need to win no debating that. The question is "HOW MUCH ARE YOU MAKING?" Why are you trading in the first place? Can you quit your job and use this to support yourself? Can you buy a boat or car or house or go on a vacation with the profits from trading? How long did it take you to get that much capital? Don't become diluted in win rates and percentages of winners to losers. Are you making money? Can you pay bills with what you have made in the market? Last time I checked you cant pay an electric bill on sim cash or a high win rate. All the car dealerships around me wont sell me a car on wins and a bank wont give me a loan either on a high win rate. But cash everyone seems to understand that for some reason. They will sell you a car if you have cash. All those other unfortunate folks using the 90% system couldn't pay for the affordable charts with the profits of the system let alone any bill or retirement. Do all 90% system lose? Of course not. The point is not to bash all 90% programs or programs but rather bring to light the more important elements. Most traders don't or wont talk about this or refuse to talk about it. Well guess what most traders don't make money in this anyway. If you feel uncomfortable talking about this to others then you need to be asking yourself the above questions. If you are doing this as a hobby or are an inventor then disregard all of this post and carry on doing what you are doing.

well the good thing about the internet is that this can all easily be dispelled with some common sense. Common sense first: The reason why you can't back test bid/ask is simple. If you have ever looked at a footprint chart you would of figured this out quickly. The main reason why you cant back test this stuff accurately is because when the information comes the first time to you it will sometimes have information missing. This is due to the fact that no one here is on the floor above the exchange. If you have a business class internet connection you can still have packets missing. This has to do with the fact that the internet isn't perfect and problems happen every day. I have seen it where 200-400 was missing only to be refreshed after the fact because of imperfect data or lag coming through. Now if you have missing information then of course its going to affect what you do at that particular time. Now I bet when you come home from your other job that isn't trading you jump onto your comp and replay the day and think to yourself that it is the same thing. But it is not the same. Why? The problem is that when you replay it all the information is there. If you have a good broker (meaning you are still most likely using a broker feed) then all the packets should still be there right where they are suppose to be. You are probably thinking that its fine because you have been trading in sim in replayed markets for so long and making progress after all these years. I bet you don't even trade with a footprint so its kind of funny you implying I don't know what Im talking about. But anyway. Volume is not the stuff on the ladder. Volume is the amount traded or the contracts traded. You can simply go check for yourself on the CME websight. Here is the link Daily Exchange Volume and Open Interest . Just copy and paste that into your browser or click the link. After you do that you can hover your mouse over the blue "volume" and get a definition. Here is the definition If you cant click it ill post if for you "The number in this column represents the number of contracts traded on the selected date for all CME Group venues (Globex, Open Outcry,ClearPort/PNT, and all other executions)" The numbers on the ladder are advertisements or orders advertising to get filled. The queue isn't the orders on the ladder. Its not orders on the DOM either (if you call a ladder a dome). If you go and read post #2 you'll see that I clearly didn't mention volume that was getting filled at the market price and only referenced the aggressive buyers and sellers that were filled. Nothing about advertised price on the ladder either. The queue is the orders that are coming in that are not aggressive. They are already filled so it counts as volume but they are not aggressive. The reason why I mentioned this is because its important NOT to just look for aggressive buyers and sellers. You could have lots of sellers getting collected in a non-aggressive way that if you are only looking for aggressiveness you wont catch. What I was saying had nothing to do with the ladder. It looks like in your post you were talking about the ladder. Here is the link to the page so you can see what I use to see stuff coming in How can I plot the level I bid/ask size information on my multi-pane charts? What is the Bid/Ask Tool? : MarketDelta Support . "you'll just cause more harm than good" oh ok. Are you mad bro? Why? Because maybe you didn't think I mentioned your post and gave you the credit you think you deserve or earned? Besides the repetition would be good and would just reinforce what you said. Are you mad because you don't think you will get credit or something for being the #3 posting and putting it in bold? None of the stuff I talked about had anything to do with what you said. The fact of the matter is that if you are going to use this type of charting or trading its best used at the premarket and open of U.S. markets where volume is the highest. If you are looking at volume during the overnight sessions it is usually lower then the RTH. Any one who is serious about bid/ask should be concentrating on the plan they are going to employ and looking at volume coming in before and after the open instead of putting posts up at that time on a forum. Who knows maybe if you would follow this you could of made some sim money in the bonds or the ES or maybe even the 6E just this morning. Now when you get home from your other non-trading job and jump into sim just know that it would benefit you more to do all your sim work in the morning at the open. I know it will take away from your forum posting time but look at it this way. Anyone following in your footsteps wont have to take as long not making money as you have. If you are going to make money with this then you are best off getting up early and being ready before the open. Look at it like you are getting yourself prepared and getting into a habit that when you go live you will be ready to make money. So yea back testing is great for inventors but this is trading and so far the concepts I know are right on for being successful. If you don't know what you're talking about, and also can't be bothered to read what other people have posted, then you should refrain from making authoritative sounding statements and go back to B school or the Bush league team.

WOW 10 points huh? That seems like to me alot of any thing on any market. I am guessing you are talking ES because 10 points on other popular markets doesn't make sense. 10 points on the 6E is 1000 ticks. You would have to be swinging for the fences for me to justify that size of stop. The way that I trade that would suggest to me that I was late and to wait. I don't use a standard SLM stop. I don't know very many people personally that do. I have read so far in this thread that if you don't use some sort or SLM you are not going to succeed and you are insane and you wont last long. To me if you have to use a SLM then you are not that confident in your trading. I don't use a SLL either. I do exit trades that don't work. My stop loss area is usually 1-2 ticks on the bonds and 2-3 maybe 4 on the ES (depends on the structure of the market). If it get 2 ticks on the bonds I just hit the close button on the trade and that elects a market order. But I DO NOT want my broker to execute a market order on the bonds just because it went 2 ticks against me. Sometimes on the bonds it will hang for a bit and that allows me to see if its going to hold or not. All this talk of SLMs is new since the advent of the internet. Back in the day when most of the trading was in the pit. You were your stop. you didn't go to your broker to execute a SLM. You simply just went flat. Also never leverage down. If you or if you know any one who is doing that strongly suggest to not do that. If you can advise I would suggest to advise against leveraging down. NO ONE is big enough to just keep buying NO ONE. Just go ask any one who traded bonds in the late 80s. Go ask the folks at Lehman Brothers. Cut your losers quick and let your winners run.

I use ToS but not for my main trading charts. I use it for option quotes. I use it to check stock prices. And I use it to listen to Ben. Volume profile is going to give you half of the picture. Its a good solid half but there are going to be things missing. I use Market Delta myself so I get the "footprint" with the bid/ask along with market profile and volume profile. You can see where other prop guys and institutions are stepping in on the footprint. You don't know who it is exactly but you can see volume get let out at certain prices. You can also see the MA guys who are late to the party and where and when they show up. I know that Sierra dose the same type of thing and for a fraction of the price but I like the fact that I can pick up the phone and get customer support. On volume profile I think the larger volume areas are magnets and the lower volume area are resistance. I would stay away from larger areas. Also this isn't a thing you can back test. You need to see this in live action with areas in had to see if it pans out. You cant back test it because after the profile is filled in then you cant see the smaller areas.

Ok there are just a few misconceptions that have been posted here that should be cleared up for the sake of future viewers and the ones asking questions. #1 Volume = number of contracts traded. When the NYSE or the CME releases the amount of volume they are releasing how much traded. When you are looking at volume data at a certain price you are looking at how many got filled at that price. The stuff you see on the ladder isn't considered 'volume.' You might be able to get a tip off if you see 5,000 sitting right above you. But some one could pull that really quick before it gets filled. 5,000 on the offer after the fact is something else. If you were take all the volume traded and arrange it you would get a profile. This is called "volume profile." #2 If you just look at the bid/ask and don't have some way to arrange the data its meaning less. Too small of a time frame you wont see volume from big buyers or sellers or stops getting hit. To big of a time frame and you end up with 1 candle of all the volume of the day. If you have some sort of support/ resistance levels that you came up with and use the bid/ask against it you might not get the usefulness that you are looking for. Its possible that your levels are not really levels or just short term traders are trading your levels. You really need to couple it with something else then just use it on your own. #3 The queue. The bid/ask should have a queue. This is something you should be watching as well that no one has mentioned yet. This is something you cant back test like so many people love to do. You need to watch the queue. You need to see what is waiting to get filled and if they are getting absorbed. #4 The main problem I am seeing in just the last 4 days of posting is that the retail market is full of people who don't think or trade like traders. Its not there fault. They haven't seen the inside of any exchange. They are inventors. Most have unreasonably low expectations on what they should be making. With that being said its not meant to offend anyone but to point out that if you apply the same thinking to this as others apply to MAs, MACDs, and other lagging indicators then you will spend a ton of time trying different variables and getting mixed results.

Well simply put if you want to trade like a prop shop then use the divergence in ratio.

This is not true. Volume is after that fact and is measured after the trade has happened not and never before.

Depending on the VIX I usually go 20 on the ZN / ZB. If I am not feeling good or I am confused or have a conflicting idea I reduce my size. I don't go larger then 20 on the ES because I prefer the bonds. But I will take trades on the ES. Again I reduce my size if the premarket looks funny or is giving conflicting info up to and after the open. I have never worked at a company that bought into that only bet a percentage of your total account stuff so I don't go by that. But one thing I do go by is the next 100-1000 trades. If your account cant take 100 trades or better yet 1000 trades then you are too small or too short term IMO.

Genius question. You are close but you miss the perspective of the pit. A couple of things. First there is no such thing as more buyers then sellers. Or there is no such thing as more sellers then buyers. This is a huge misconception. There is no debating this there is no arguing this. In order for a trade to happen you need to have a buyer and a seller "trade." In order for a buyer to get filled you need to have a seller sell to him or else he wont get filled. With that being said all buyers and sellers ARE NOT created equal. What you are keying into is aggressive buyers and aggressive sellers. There is a difference in aggressive buyers and resting buyers and aggressive sellers and resting sellers. The aggressive buyers and sellers act a certain way and the resting guys act a certain way. Here is an example. Lets say we are trading at 50s on the ES. And lets say there is no one trading at 50s right now but there are orders resting at 75s and at 25s. There are sellers at 75 and buyers at 25. If no one buys up or sells down then price wont go any where. This is called "having your foot on the bag." In order for price to go one way or another 1 of 2 things need to happen. Sellers have to get aggressive and sell down and sell it for 25 instead of 75 and have to take out every one at 25. Once every one is taken out at that price then price moves down. Also then inverse for it to move up. If buyers at 25 decide to get aggressive and buy it at 75 and take out every one at 75 then price moves up. The other way is for a bunch of new buyers or sellers(not the ones at the resting price) to get aggressive and come in and take out the resting orders. Now with that understanding you cant ever know how many orders are resting or how many are at a certain area. But what you can know is how many traded there and how aggressive meaning how many were lifted or hit after the fact. So when you look at a bid/ask footprint or what ever you have you cant see the the first half you can only see the last half and you have to put the first part together yourself. Last example hopefully. Using our last example lets say you see buyers trading up to 75 and they are trying to lift it. And trying. And trying. And trying. And trying. What does this tell you? Tons of resistance. Tons of resting orders. If you see that it comes off and goes back to 25s and you see that more then a normal amount traded there then maybe you think short. Why? Well all those longs now are underwater and will turn to shorts when they go flat. Another possibility is that you have buyers buy up to 75s lift it and lift it and lift it and lift it. They clear it and price goes to .00 (ES trades in .25s) and you notice a more then average about traded there. That means buyers get really aggressive and be thinking rally. Why? Well all those shorts are now underwater and will turn into longs when they go flat. When stops are elected or triggered they are usually market orders and will be aggressive. hopes this helps

You are missing something that no one has mentioned in the posts so far. Ill get to that in a minute. I don't use MACD or any other lagging math based indicators. Do they work??? Sure . Im not here to argue that. I bet there are tons of people making money with what ever I think is lagging or what not. You mentioned price and volume and this is what keyed me into this post. If you look at on a given day and put the volume into a profile you will get a bell curve. No surprise this method is called "volume profile." What you will notice is that most of the volume will be at a particular price and by volume profile users this is a magnet and usually not seen as an advantageous place to trade. Know as the VPOC. IMO you don't want to trade were every one is trading. You don't want to trade where lots of short term traders are trading either. What you are missing is what you do want is to figure out where the institutions are trading and trade with them. Why? Because they move the market. That is why. Does this mean you should listen to Ben on the Squack and just go short when you hear Goldman getting short? NO But this is what volume is tipping you off to . You want to know what price did at certain prices and look to see if buyers or sellers are stepping in at that price then hit the bid or lift the offer and go. These should be predetermined price levels with obvious areas right behind them for failures. Honestly there really isn't anything else but volume, price, and time. And maybe the FED but thats a different post for a different thread.

There is a difference between the types of stops used to exit a market. And there are some basic reasons to not use stops. Now that does not mean you don't have some idea of where to get out. In fact the the biggest mistake traders make is to not define were they are going to get out or where to get out if they are wrong BEFORE they get in. I dont use the straight 2 point market order at an arbitrary price like others. If it goes against I look to see what the market is doing at the edge of my area. If its not looking promising (and by this time it should be clear) I press the close button. I have a cell phone just in case my net goes down. Cut to the chase: Those guys that lost 8k on 1 trade either are trading with an account that is equal to you losing 8 bucks (no biggie) or they would of lost that anyway because you can always move your stop with a few clicks or tell the broker to cancel replace.