Colonel B

You are right... You are right too... Fundamentals do drive markets just not the ones you think. First off we are traders and traders move markets. Not the supply of lumber. Think about it. Traders move markets not the lumber itself. Its better and easier to follow traders then it is to follow the supply of something. Unless you are following the supply of traders. This seems simple but it is not. But there are things that you can consider no matter what. The first thing is that each and every buyer is a seller and every seller is a buyer. This is a fundamental that is constant as a trader. No matter what any other indicator or corollary is doing every buyer is a seller and ever seller is a buyer. So really the only fundamental you need to follow is the traders themselves. The corollaries help to tell you where traders may or may not be wrong. Knowing how the market really works and how traders trade and how traders feel and think is more valuable then any lead on some news or something like that. Why? Because understanding where traders may or may not be wrong is longer term then news. Reading pages and pages of how an auction works is silly. The fact is that its not an auction in the traditional sense. Its a 2 directional auction at the least. In a regular auction the auction is over once the item is sold to the highest bidder. Its not that way in the futures or stock market. In fact this is realized as soon as someone understands that buyers are sellers and sellers are buyers.

Well I meant easy and simple in the context of the post that I was referencing. I agree that trading in general isn't simple or easy. I know there are markets that hold structure better then others thus giving the appearance of easier. An example of this is the treasuries vs the ES. The ES commonly and frequently will go past its stop out just to go in the intended direction after it throws some traders out. This action could be as little as 1-2 ticks. The reason for this is fact that the ES has more short term traders and less paper. When you have mostly retail traders all trying to do the same thing in the same spot it causes chop. You have less of that in the treasuries. Retail avoids the treasuries for many reasons. If you are using sound market principals then this makes certain markets easier to trade ahead of time. Not trading in itself. I also agree that trading the treasuries is easier because of the larger tick and less leverage.

It very well can. But here is the thing. Its not a situation where the treasuries lead the NQ every time or the NQ leads the treasuries. There are times where they don't move in sync. Let me throw out a few examples. Say the treasuries are really weak for the day or overnight. Could be for any number of reasons. This could signal a strong open for the NQ. Now on the other had I have seen it where the FED comes out with something and both go up at the same time. In both of these situations I don't fade. But here it the useful information. When the NQ makes higher highs the treasuries should make lower lows. If the NQ makes higher highs or new highs and the either of the treasuries doesn't then that could be a tell on what is going to happen next. This happens in the ES and NQ as well. The NQ and the ES should move in sync. So if the ES makes new lows the NQ should as well. If it one does and the other doesn't then that is a huge clue. Its easier to see these things happen in real time ironically. That is a good question. There is no set time. It all depends on the tempo of the day. If its a faster tempo then it should be faster. If its a day like yesterday (Friday before a holiday) then it could be as long as 30 minutes to an hour.

What is a perfect system? Ok My experience is all that stuff you just mentioned doesn't work. It is probably the most inefficient way to trade or even look at markets. I am not saying it is not logical. However I bet everything you are using is lagging. You will always be at least 2 steps behind. Because of this you will have more risk per trade. You will have larger draw downs. And you want to have a computer trade for you? /facepalm.... Everything you mentioned so far is retail type of thinking. All we need to do is throw in a few popular catch phrases and we have ourselves a common trading room. My guess is that you are trolling. But if you are not... The problem with computers is that markets are dominated by people. Its mostly people that trade markets. I know its not popular what I am saying. However computers don't act like people. They don't think like people. And most importantly they don't trade like people. So far as I know man has not found a way to teach a computer to feel. Computers work well when you get to the point where you are missing more good trades then you take bad trades. And when you get to that point then you are still better hiring someone to take the trades you are missing. The reason is that computers don't trade like humans. Analyzing 50 or more clues in your situation wont help you. Just from what you presented so far it looks like you don't know what to look for. Looking at 50 random things might help. Might not. Seems like shooting in the dark. Here are some ideas. Can you do what you do in Forex in the Future market? Do you need the large stop out? Are you using correlated markets? Are you looking at the bid/ask? Can you really say you have an advantage over others in the markets you attempt to trade?

I would argue that it was the simplest but not the easiest. I think the Treasuries are easier. You couple what you have here and tie it in with the ES and then tie that into the Treasuries. Of course its a bit more complicated but not in principle. You are just doing what you are doing but just 4 times as much. However the payoff is 30 bucks a tick. So the payoff isn't 4 times as much however the amount you lose in inefficiency you gain in flexibility. Instead of looking and only limiting yourself to trading 1 market you now have access to 4-5 markets. I have no less then 4 DOMs open at any given time. I have access and the ability to trade all 4 however in reality I only trade 1 or 2. It will be interesting to see a good discussion on correlated markets.

This is fundamentally FALSE. The stock market is a market. The reason why prices go up on any stock is because buyers are willing to pay higher prices. Simple as that. Someone has to sell the stock to a buyer. So if a stock price has gone up for the last 25 years it is only because buyers chose to buy higher each year. Why would buyers collectively do this? For many reasons. It could be because they think that the company is undervalued. Or they perceive that the company will create or develop a new idea or technology. Companies simply do not reward you for staying with a company for many years through the payout of an increase in what you paid for the stock. No they reward you with dividends. Other buyers reward you not companies. A company is only worth what someone will pay for it. The price of a stock is not directly tied to the value of the company either. It could be but only if buyers collectively use that. I would like to point out that at the peak of the last financial crisis there were many banks that suffered a loss on their stock price. The reason for it was the fact that they were banks and a majority of banks had problems. The entire financial sector suffered regardless if the company was or ever was involved with any sort of mortgage loans. This is similar to the housing market. If you have the nicest house on the street and a few houses on your block or in your area are run down then it diminishes the value of your house. Here is an example of your fallacy. If you would of bought 10 contracts of ES a few years ago when it was at 700 and then sold it today at 1517 you would be up. So based on your example the ES generated wealth. And this is based on a supposed index of more then 1 company. Given the example so far the ES seems to be a better form of generating wealth. Also you can short sell stock. This in effect is similar to a futures trade in that you are not required to "own" something before selling it.

Its going to be impossible to get a reasonable magazine ban now. I can go make 20 of them the day after the ban and say they are grandfathered or 20 a month from now. If they don't allow 30 round mags and seize all of them then I can still make 20 of them tomorrow. Or make them at a future point in time. Now that you can manufacture mags from a suitcase what prevents some one from making a 60 round mag? So the point is that if someone wanted to rob a bank or commit some nefarious act. They could just make the mags the night before the crime. Instead of having to go through all the trouble of finding the mags and buying them. Same goes for AR lowers. I wonder how long it would take to make a complete AR or AK variant minus the barrel and gas tubes. I mean really the only things that you would need are a barrel, gas tube, springs, and the bolt.

Has anyone mentioned the printers yet? I was just wondering because I am not going to go through 900 some posts of bickering. But yea what about the printers. What do you guys think about that? I can get the codes if you want. I really think because of this, the debate is over. There is no way to control it now no matter how hard you try. My opinion is that the Dems get shellacked in the next election. Now with the printers it could be a big deal even in Europe. There is no chance or hope for gun control at this point.

This thread should be renamed "The RETAIL Trader Strategy for Futures Trading." Because that is what it is.

Oh that is too bad. I thought you might of been a trader. Oh well. Yea good luck with finding a broker. Good brokers don't play games. Maybe try that app on Facebook. Its called "Hotshot Trader." Or you can try following that scam artist FT71. He plays games. Or maybe just bag trading games and go get an Xbox 360 if you don't have one already. Lots of games on that thing. Have Fun!!!!

How do you double thumbs this? Totally agree

I use Mirus. They are good. However they have a recent policy that is something like if you don't make 10 or 25 round turns a month then you are charged 25 bucks. That isn't a problem with me but it could be for someone who is unsure or just starting out and might need more then 90 days of market data. Figured I would throw that out there. Again I do use them.

All IBs are pretty much the same. And don't confuse Interactive Brokers the brand with Interactive Brokers the type of brokers. For example Mirus and Infinity are both IBs/ Interactive Brokers. Are you a member? That makes a difference. Are you a big size trader? That makes a difference too. A good broker for me may not be the a good broker for you. If you are a small trader with a small account and are not a member then chances are there will be very little difference in IBs. Interactive Brokers actually being the worst broker of all the interactive brokers.

???? MENTOR noun 1. a wise and trusted counselor or teacher. 2. an influential senior sponsor or supporter. verb (used without object) 3. to act as a mentor: She spent years mentoring to junior employees. verb (used with object) 4. to act as a mentor to: The brash young executive did not wish to be mentored by anyone. Its impossible to have a mentor that is dead. A person can not counsel you from the dead. It is also impossible to support from the grave as well. I can post more definitions if you need them. They will all support the fact that no one can counsel from the grave. Unless you are using a Ouija board for your trading.

That is my experience. I wish I would of read this instead of writing a novel earlier.

Wow I wish I could of gotten in on this one sooner. I want to answer a few things said or suggested so far. I wont take the time to respond to every post but rather just shotgun it in one reply. Traders don't usually look at R.O.I.. The good ones don't look at percentage of account. I can get you 100-1000% R.O.I. on your money. I of course am only going to give you 5%. Its a fair trade off considering the banks and the rate you are going to get from the establishment. Yes I would be glad to get 100-1000% on your 2500 dollar account. And yes I am confident I can cover and do that. 5% on your investment is good don't you think? Can you live off that as a trader? Of course not. So how much can you make? In order to justify the risk of trading your own account its got to be more then 80K. So 80-120K annually. And yes that takes years to do. Don't expect to do that coming out the gate. There is no way with small size you can even come close to that. 10K will keep you in the game longer. I say this because I manage risk and doubt anything will be as is stated. So assuming you don't know what you are doing then you wont get knocked out so quick and might have a longer period to adjust errors and come up with solutions. Yes its possible you can get knocked out in a month just like the 2500 guy. That is if you don't trade like the 2500 guy. If you put on 10 contracts then you will be out in a month too. The real advantage you have over the 2500 guy is that at some point you and him will make an error. Say a ladder error. Or get caught in the news. Or if you are like me make an order from your chart on accident and have it cost you about 500 bucks. 500 loss on a 2000 dollar account is 25% and may not be recoverable. On a 10K account you are still in the game. This is not a bad mistake either. Say you bought that amazing awesome program that seems to work. Again 10K will allow you to trade it for a month and see or not see some results. How much could I make with 1 contract on the ES? Good question. I would first of all suggest you to trade bonds and notes and not trade the ES. The bonds and notes are more stable then the ES. It is going to be easier to build your size in the notes. The notes hold with in 2 ticks and that is cheaper then a 4-8 tick stop out on the ES. The tick size is more but its more stable. I direct all new and small traders to the bonds and notes because of the advantages they have over other markets. But if you insist on trading the ES and you traded the way I trade then I would bet its close to 500 a week at best. You could be between 250-500 a week. Hard to pay expenses on that. Its really hard to build size like that. In the notes you could build quicker because the stop is smaller but again there is still a time frame. And honestly its not going to be a huge difference in time one over the other. Since you have 10K already its just a matter of time till you increase your size. Since you have the actual funds and you don't have to earn them per say. Building your size is the key to making more and no you don't need 100K to make a reasonable living. Chances are if you have 100K you are not using it and its better to put at least half of that money else where. 10K-20K is plenty.

How about this. What causes trending? Time? Price? The moon and stars? Any idea? If the market is trending up what should you do? Buy it? Look for places to sell it? Any idea? What causes trending to stop? Time? Price? Your stop out? Is a market trending on a 5 minute time frame? Is a market trending only on a 30 minute? So it went up 100 pips in 10 minutes. Do you buy it? Do you look to sell it? Is it going to go up another 100 pips? Any ideas? Do you have something that will allow you to get on the trend in the first place? Start with this first. Where you get in is important in that it gives you a better chance to win. But getting in is not the only thing. Forex is the worst market for any entry. If you don't have anything to get you into the trend what are you using to fade it? Can you fade it or do you need it to be trending to make money? The only way to know if its worth it to keep it on or take it off is to bet more. You bet more. Once you put more on you can take them off and let others ride. Its simple if you have more on. So the answer to the edge you are looking for is BET MORE. Put more contracts on. What do you do once you have done that? Cut your winners quick and cut your losers even quicker. +25, +50, +75, +100 for 4 contracts. 8 would be 2x+25, 2x+50, 2X+75, 2x+100. But what if it goes 600 pips? My response is, does it normally go 600 pips or did it do that this time? What about the times it goes 100 pips and turns around and comes back? But I use a 300 pip stop out and I cant take +25. Well then change your stop to -50 or -25 instead. Taking big swinging d!#* trades is sexy. That is the way retail traders with small accounts trade and think. You get good and stay in this game by taking smaller bites with more on. Not taking 600 pips with 1 or 2 contracts.

What you mean is The trades you take can only go 1 of 2 ways. Price can go up then down then up again before it hits your stop. So 3) price goes close to your stop with in 1 tick then goes in the direction you thought. 4) it goes with in 1 tick of your target and then goes after your stop out. If you choose to pull the trade at 1 tick within your target either way it effects the 50-50 thinking. Eventually. If and only if you have stops and targets that are reasonable for that market. Again its how you trade price not price itself. What about my profit target on the spoo at 3000? Or my target on the 6E at 4.9? I still have my first target in apple 1200 just like the folks on TV said and my next target is at 3000. And my stop out for all 3 is 0. *This example is pertaining to futures, forex, and other types of markets such as these. I can't fully comment on baseball cards or comic books since I don't trade or collect either of those.* I have seen this with gurus like the famous FT71. This is not true. Parts of it are true. How you trade makes the percentage. Your trades are 50-50. Not mine. There are fundamental facts about price and markets that make this thinking not true. When you have enough collected short term traders collected in 1 direction and their stops are triggered then 100% of the time price moves in that direction. Not 50% not 90% not 99% but 100%. How far and for how long? It depends on a ton of factors. But suffice it to say you can get the direction 100% of the time when stops are triggered. What is the direction a month from now? Don't know. My answer is what are the positions of retail traders a month from now? But you said you could predict the direction 100% of the time!!! No. Make no mistake you can predict the direction at the time the stops are hit and a little before. An hour before there is no way of knowing and there is no way to trade it an hour after. So your trades are 100% winners then? No. Because you can still be too slow to get on and miss it or you can still hold it for too long thus turning a winner into a loser. And also there is no way to know with certainty where it could end up and how long it will take to get there. It could go 2 ticks then come back to your entry and even stop out before it goes to your target. So trades can have 100% chance of winning in certain situations but anyone can ruin a perfectly good trade. Just because you can get the direction right doesn't mean that you know the direction 100% of the time. You can for sure know the direction after enough short term traders have been collected in 1 direction and their stops are hit. 50-50 is relative because there is actually more then 2 possibilities of what can happen in a trade. Some clarification could be maybe someone has small profit targets and takes profit right away. Or maybe some one has a target of 3000 in the S&P and a stop out of 700 and is still in since last May. Again maybe your trades are 50-50. Your stops and targets and how you exercise them determines your percentage. If you don't move a stop or a target then yes its going to be 50-50. A 90% system may just mean they are using a large stop and a small profit for targets. These are the reasons for the percentage. Not the market. The applications of trades to the market make the percentage. I have had lots of trades where I was in a winning trade and it wasn't to my target and I pulled it. It never went to my target and would of turned into a loser. In this situation it defies the 50-50 ideas. I kept a winner from turning into a loser and with out adding or averaging. How do you quantify that? Yes if I traded with a 50-50 mindset and wasn't dynamic and flexible in the market then yes it would of been a loser. However it wasn't and the money went into my account. Ok so you could say that every trade is a winner or a loser. And maybe that was the point all along. However what about a scratch trade? Winner or loser? What about a trade that has some winners and a loser? Do you account for a stop moved to your entry after you take some off or do you keep it at its original place? Are those winners or losers? In closing you can increase your odd of winning or losing by how you exit the trade. When you flip a coin you have to wait for the coin to settle and accept the results. In trading its not that way. You can actually cut the trade when it is at any point of winning and its counted as winning. The equivalent to this with a coin is being able to see what the side of the coin is while its spinning and push it over with your finger.

Also the edge has been and will always be knowing where shorts and longs are trapped. Using correlated markets and some sort of bid vs ask software is the most efficient way to do that. There are other ways with certain patterns that will accomplish it however they are much less intuitive. Markets move because of short, shorter, or shorter then you term traders exiting positions. Being able to recognize where short term traders are going to enter or are entering and where they will most likely exit is the supreme advantage a trader has. Knowing that info is the edge and is the only edge and the only edge that counts. This will only cease to be the edge when and if short term traders stop trading like short term traders.

Maybe, but I have yet to see the proof. For all the assertions about this I have yet to see one solid piece of evidence. I have yet to see a completely random test and not some test that claims to be random with out exposing all the parameters so that folks can duplicate the results. Just because someone says its true doesn't mean it is. Or a better interpretation would be that just because someone that is selling something says its true doesn't mean it is. They can't and here is why. Arbitrary risk to reward is only 1 part of a much larger equation. It is important without question. However if you are randomly or intentionally buying at bad prices you will get stopped out. If you are buying at bad prices and you think the solution is to use a bigger stop out then you will fail. It is far better to have solid risk management in place then to try to figure out the reward. In reality you need to figure out your risk before you can even begin with figuring out how much you can profit. Also you can only manage your risk you can NEVER manage profit. How close is your entry to the bottom? Also you have to consider the market you are trading. If you tried to use a larger stop out and larger profit target then what the market you are trading will allow then chances are you will get stopped. Assuming your reward is higher then your risk. Or you will simply have to exit at a loss. I can give many examples of how the question is a fallacy in further posts.

This is a fallacy. Just because the firm wont be harmed doesn't mean it it wont cost anything to teach people. The fact is you can make more money in the market then you can in education. The only group that disagrees with this is a certain political party. The time is best used to trade and prepare to trade markets instead of teaching and fielding questions from an audience. Another fallacy is that you cant know exactly how they are making money year after year. Look at Enron and look at Bernie Madoff both reported year after year growth. There are lots of firms that without a doubt are making a majority of their capital on a few trades. And as long as it is before the end of the year its a profit. Consider GS who has all sorts of ways to make money. Are they making money on trades or are they making money on new customers? We know they give out loans to governments. So are they making money there? Can you replicate anything that they do even if they told you? Finally I don't think traders are that secretive as much as they are busy or preoccupied. There really isn't that many secrets. There are more ubiquitous rules then secrets. Use correlated markets to get a base to establish value. Use some sort of software that will allow you to see longs and shorts. And finally watch for buyers or sellers to get trapped and wait for the stops to get elected. Chances are most folks wont understand what that stuff even means. Let alone know how to use it. And the funny thing is that everyone knows how to look for the best deal on car. Or how to get the cheapest rates on airline tickets. But no one can look at 4 markets and tell me what one is cheaper or is the better buy. People can spend time looking for the cheapest online computer component or cheapest flat screen TV but cant look at the S&P and tell me if its cheap and why. That in itself is frustrating. Talking trading even to so called other traders is almost like talking to someone who doesn't speak English. Its better to just go watch a Monday night football game.

I totally agree with the President on this one. So true Mr President.... So so so true Mr. President. So true it deserves repeating. Some how if you put on a order and walk away that gives you a better chance of winning? If you are trying to do this and work at the same time then you are making more money then a doctor or you don't know what you are doing.

Everyone can't buy. Say for example if I had a magic line at a certain price. The more successful I am at selling subs for the line the worse off the trade would be. Why? Well simple market principles state that if everyone buys a the line then the market will go in the opposite direction UNLESS new participants enter in and buys it higher. Well then one could say its a magic line is only magic the less people use it. So the suggestion is that you should keep it secret. I disagree. Why? Well if you know that the glut of folks trying to buy it will cause to to go down then you sell it. Its the imbalance of short term traders that moves the markets. If I tell tons of people this then that area wont be an imbalance anymore. As a matter of fact if I tell everyone to get short at 2000+ buyers and everyone does it then you have the same situation in reverse as long as its 2000+ in an imbalance of shorts. At this point it may seem like either way its a loss for the guy that shares. If you sell the magic line (and its a genuine magic line) then the more people that use it the less reliable it becomes. And if you take that same line and sell it to a new set of folks and tell them to do the opposite of what you told the first set of folks it too will have a limited reliability. Depending on the popularity of course. This is how most retail traders think and for all the stuff I mentioned its true. *RANT INC.* This course of thinking is what most consider the "Holy Grail." The flaw is that it isn't' an innovation. In fact its far from anything new. It takes the preconceived notion of education that society has pushed for the last 30 years and exploits it. It takes modern business models and uses them to sell a product. These systems couldn't exist 20 years ago. The boom of the internet has allowed for this and guess what it isn't new in any form. A masters in marketing is what is most in demand in the holy grail model. The definition of the Holy Grail is all wrong. Holy Grail in trading = Rip off, Wash, Rinse, Repeat. *RANT OVER* A true holy grail system would exploit the above system. You would look for the imbalance at the lines. Then pick the winning side. But don't you have to buy the subscription to know where the line is? No. Just guess. Its not the line that is magic. Its all the folks creating an imbalance that makes it work or not work. The line is just a reference point. Price doesn't care about silly lines. People do. What makes price move? Its all the short term traders exiting positions. If you collect enough short term traders and they all exit it goes in the opposite direction. You target the short term guys and pick the winners. You can share this message all day because no one can ever know ahead of time if there will be an imbalance at a line till price gets to it and either create one or not create one. Also after an imbalance has been created and someone enters there is no way of knowing if someone else will enter and create an imbalance going the other way. Also there are so many markets to trade. In fact there is no way someone could catch every one. If you are looking for imbalances instead of trading a line then as soon as an imbalance ceases to be an imbalance then it ceases to be a trade. A true Holy Grail would allow you to chose what side you want to be on at the line and not restrict you one side or the other. A true Holy Grail would let you know you are wrong before you exit and not after. However no one refers to any system like this as a Holy Grail system. So as far as the current definition goes then yes no system could last and one could only really benefit by keeping it a secret. The truer sense of the definition would allow anyone to share it until all markets reach complete equilibrium.

Well I totally agree with a majority of the folks here. I am going back on all that Bull!@#$ I said earlier. Yep all that crap about algos being insignificant. I think the best thing for every one to do right now is first off do not panic. Second quickly and quietly go and make a phone call to whatever brokerage you use and tell then to completely liquidate all funds and have them sent by check to your residence. And then finally join the community on the newly established forum "Former Traders Laboratory." This is new community where former traders go to talk about the good ole days before the algos came along and ruined it for everyone. You can go there and let your old trading forum buddies know how the job search is going. You can let everyone there know about the extra overtime you got at the warehouse you work at. You can even let everyone know how you just got on the company's 401k. Instead of talking about trading you can talk about that gardening project you started in your backyard. Share recipes and that kind of stuff. I look forward to seeing you all there. o.O? Still here? Yea me to. Time to quit complaining and time to get back to work. Time to quit feeling sorry for yourselves and trying to relive the old days and get back to work. QQ some moar on the other forum. If you think its unfair or you think its not for you anymore. YOU ARE RIGHT!!!! Its not fair and its not for you anymore.

LOL yea This message has to be 20 characters