timokrates

It seems that you answered your question with the following post. As DB says in the book, lines can also be horizontal. The result here is a range, which in my opinion is very tradeable if you focus on such low timeframes as 5 and 1M. The current volatility is high, which makes it maybe a bit more difficult, but the principles can be applied. The thing in trading ranges is to incorporate reversals. I don't know, if you are at that point, but nevertheless, here is my view. My timezone is different, but it should be obvious. According to this there are four potential reversals (REVs), one BO and the the BO+RET, which I would say is the only SLA setup here. As the rest is "strictly" AMT other "rules" have to be established. I'm currently trying to create those.

Thanks for your reply, DB. Did you see the pic attached? All the questions were related to tactics playing the EU morning range. Yes, I know context is important - but could the context also be interpreted like on here... Channel up potential hinge? But in general, in a range trading reversals one would focus on the extremes and take the trade as it comes. That was more the direction of my question. Cheers!

Hi DB, I'm not able to respond to your post on T2W, so I will ask my questions here. In your post you describe the more or less immediate entry at range extremes. A few questions were coming up on my side, I try to keep them brief... 1. Do you wait for at least a tiny bit of confirmation (test on the 5Sec for example) or do you "simply" enter because you are at the top or bottom? Or do you (through testing) have defined an area depending on the size of the range, where you are ready to enter an order if price gets there - or do you place them even beforehand? 2. Do you have expectations on how price has to move - and that it has to move immediately in the anticipated direction? 3. Do you use a kind of micro managing telling you to be ready to get out? I have marked minor levels as at least a first reference (red dashed lines LSH/LSH) 4. In terms of exits I'm aware that one has to get out before initiating another trade. That would mean that in terms of AMT the targets are pretty much set if one is ignoring the context completely? In general I see the value of AMT and with some serious testing the insecurity will maybe disappear - and yes of course, there are losses... Thanks in advance!

Sorry, have to do it again - so many questions... I also have to say that the time of day you mentioned as well is critical. Living in europe I follow the market often during the EU morning. There are opportunities as well, but sometimes it's tricky. Would you say in general that an opportunity (price reaching an extrem, doing x / price breakes the range and forms an appropriate retracement) have the same potential? It's impossible to say in advance. But there have been some awfully nice moves at 0400 recently. Thanks you, what I originally meant was: An opportunity is an opportunity regardless of the time - ok, lets say it's best during the active times of the EU morning, and the US morning and afternoon... An op is an op. However, if nobody's trading, you're much more vulnerable to manipulation. In terms of the 5Sec I develop a bit to a pain in the ass - sorry for that. But do you want to see a certain behaviour comparable to what you want to see on the 1M? Like break of the stride or a general reaction/rejection / failed test etc.? What I want to see primarily is what's going on within the 1m bar. A 1-tick chart doesn't work for me as I have to zoom out so far that I can't see what's going on. For instance, I see now a general listlessness rather than a purposeful direction. So I sit and I watch and I wait. But not for much longer. Thanks again... Yes I think I understand. The motivation for me is that with the material you presented one is able to really locate the important levels or zones in advance. Then you obviously want to be in as close to the level and turn as possible. Very often the 5sec is even not necessary if price breaks a range for example and recovers immediately with force (what "they" call a spring I believe). This for me is the most practical way to enter a reversal with a clearly defined danger point.

It seems that I can not edit the post anymore, so I try it this way. In terms of the test of 25 this is very interesting because it kind of highlights the main problem recognizing the end of a price wave (i.e. change of buying/selling pressure). Price breaks the previous high (1M) at 23 only by two points, then struggles to get higher and drops quite hard without showing incoming strength again (5sec). This brings me to the question if there is a certain price behaviour you like to see if price reaches a potential turning point and is it part of a setup? Like 3 waves or overlapping waves - and does the microscopic view on the %sec comes into play here. I mean, it is obvious to me that price action is price action and watching it in real time is key. But just to frame it more in terms of entering at an extreme as early (and potentially safely) as possible - coming back to the previous "AMT entry". As you can see, I also try to get rid of the crutches. The wave thing is a nice theoretical construct, but in real life it doesn't work out all that well. Like VSA. I like to keep it as simple as possible. Do I enter as soon as price hits a certain level? No. I'm not that good. I want to see the stride broken first. That may happen quickly, as at 0930. Or it may take a minute or so or several, as with 25 and the following test, below. But I'm not one to just jump in. That to me is throwing money away, the roulette wheel vs the poker table. This is where the lines can come in handy, e.g., if the 1m stride is still intact, wait for that to break before entering what is now more likely a reversal or use the 5s to enter a ret. To enter before the stride is broken means additional risk. That doesn't mean that one absolutely must wait, but he must consciously weigh the additional risk. What you're doing in these scenarios is exploiting the fear and confusion of others. If you yourself are afraid and confused, it's best to stay out and wait for additional information, even though that entails additional price risk. Thanks a lot for your comments. In terms of reversals - also mindful of what you mentioned above in lajax' post - it seems to be critical to trade those as they offer in general the best opportinities as they are occuring at the extremes. This leads me to a question in terms of backtesting. As godzilla and lajax have tested the number of points after the break of the stride in regards to a potential reversal I would like to ask if this is really the way to got. Well, I suggested it, so, yes. Waht I mean is that if one has located the extreme and price struggles there, the price risk would be far less in comparison to waiting for that kind of break - also the profits should be higher or one would have bunkered some earlier. Would you agree here? If you view it in terms of the Danger Point and enter N ticks away from that. Another option is to use the 5s, as with the 0930 reversal the other day. The market doesn't necessarily see your retracement, but everybody can see where the swing low is. I also have to say that the time of day you mentioned as well is critical. Living in europe I follow the market often during the EU morning. There are opportunities as well, but sometimes it's tricky. Would you say in general that an opportunity (price reaching an extrem, doing x / price breakes the range and forms an appropriate retracement) have the same potential? It's impossible to say in advance. But there have been some awfully nice moves at 0400 recently.

First to notice in my opinion is the hinge on the daily and the midpoint. In this area (4500) price stayed for a while, formed a range in between 2 and 12 roughly - then broke it to the upside. Then came back and tested the low of the range again (2.50 @ 9.32). Then it formed another hinge (on the 1M). Broke out to the upside again and formed a little range - a potential retracement - where the bottom just got tested. We are still above the 50% on the 60M, but the high of 28.5 is still not broken. Not an easy environment.. And what do you do? Is there no trade here? As it is a breakout of a hinge/range and the first retracement one could enter long at 21. Do you agree? Nothing earlier? Lower? True, there was the option to trade the breakout from the hinge at 9:50 / around 15. Lower. Earlier. What I would like to ask in general: What about entries at the bottom of the range before like the test of 2.50 @ 9:30? Would you recommend those trades and if how do you enter those or what do you want to see (strength obviously in this case)? Do you use the 5 sec chart for "AMT entries" in combination with springboards or so? I ask because of course the entries at the opposing range extremes are mostly the best. There you are. As fabulous as the SLA is, it's only half a loaf. If one wants the whole loaf, he has to understand the synergy between the SLA and AMT. Traders have just spent two hours laying a floor at 2,5. To ignore that is at best inattentive. To take advantage of it means incorporating the 5s given how fast the market is moving. But if one understands the potential importance of 2.5 ahead of time, the movie shifts to slow motion at that point: the reversal at that level, the test two bars later, and the subsequent move upward. Even if one doesn't have the balls to take it, he should at least acknowledge its existence and think about it later. All of which takes us back to the Price of Admission and whether or not one is willing to pay it. Here the DP is about 2. How far above that will put one in the clear? 4.5? 5? Is one willing to pay three bucks to get in? Or would he rather be a spectator? Most would wait for an indicator to tell them what to do but (a) they'd be late and (b) they'd be relieving themselves of the responsibility for the trade. One can also wait for more information, but the less the information risk, the greater the price risk. Now what about the test of 25?

Sometimes one has to think that it is all about the daily levels (and midpoints in between) and the rest is the profit zone... Don't know if this really makes sense, but what is getting very clear is that top down analysis and/or macro focus can not be overemphasized... Next stop 57?

Ah ok, thanks for clarification.

A breakout and and retracement - for 6 points... PDH seems to hold for now... Edit: Off Topic??? What did I miss?

A breakout and and retracement - for 6 points... PDH seems to hold for now...

What I ask myself is how and when these ranges expire...??? When do they loose their validity? I mean obviously there is another one just below...

What I ask myself is how and when these ranges expire...??? When do they loose their validity? I mean obviously there is another one just below... I considered the range to be 30-40 (see above). The median would be 35. Price rose 12pts and fell 12pts. So what matters at this point is the median at 35, not the limits of the range.

So far the macro is pretty clear with the low from the 10th which was emphasized through yesterdays hinge apex. It's also clearly visible how the mean in between the low between 10th and 11th plays out... Now one only has to trade it accordingly... But then he'd have to know to get out and not expect too much, which he most likely would if he understood the context. DB, could you please clearify what you mean here. Do you mean that we are near the mean of the weekly channel and choppy action can be expected here? The mean is part of it, but the immediate issue is 00. Anyone can see how powerful the rejection of that was. Whether or not one had the confidence to go long there is not the responsibility of any particular method. Whether or not he had the brains to get out when the move ran out of gas is also not the responsibility of any particular method. He has to understand through experience that those kinds of moves have only so much potential. So far, however, none of this provides a springboard for a longer-term trade.

12:10: Hinge BO and RET?

I understand that the trading from higher timeframe charts might be clearer and kind of hustle free. But if I get it right you have to be there every hour at least during the main sessions to check what is going on. This to be honest makes it highly unattractive for me. What I mean here is specially trading from hourly charts or even 240 or 300 minute. Daily might be different. Apart from DB Gringo should be able to give profound answers here. Gringo? Profound? :shrug: Youngin, what I mean is that I believe that there is another kind of discipline necessary. And also one might be within the trading mode all the time and is not able to really shut down. I think 60M is deadly here. But that's just me. I still like DBs 90 minute approach - not only because it corresponds with the time off a football (the real one, not the one which is merely played with hands) match. 12:10: Hinge BO and RET? Chart moved. Ok..:helloooo: 13:11: Potential reversal at range low / false BO from 60M range? Seeing trades where there are none... I suspect the hinge is more important at this point than the range, particularly since it's forming at the bottom of the range. Like a tumor.

:rofl: It's really difficult to hide from you... Just got back from work... Still have to do that... Mostly because I still did not finish my backtesting I believe... This really blocks me from going further.. Edit: No problem with that DB...Will be there on time again tomorrow. And you might want to delete the post as it is of no use for the thread... No problem. This thread has only two more days to go anyway.

Hi all... Here are the ranges I watch on micro and macro... On the macro I believe they are pretty much the same the way DB has them... In terms of a trend day 4280 is the halfway level... 10:17: There does not seem to be much in between untill 4322...and if this range starting from december 18th/19th would be tightened a bit, the upper level would be 4304... Your third chart is a distraction. Simplify. Focus. Concentrate. Thanks, yes...it's my major problem... 11:06: Waiting for 64... 11:17: Short 62 11:20: Out...lost 2 points... 11:24: Reentry short 62 11:32: Stopped out BE after taking some heat...looks like range... 11:43: Sometimes there is an advantage in beeing stubborn...took another short at 58...this is all a bit vague and I'm merely testing here my patience to wait for levels...and don't do something stupid in between...which is a hard task... 11:46: Half out, stop BE...free ride... 12:20: Price is approaching the low of the 60M channel... There are no 60m channels. I know that you use them only on Daily and Weekly. But I was looking for a bit of a reference here. In general I was also looking at the high from february 11th at 22. Target is 24. Given that we've rolled over, the only reference required is the median of the weekly channel. You can look at stopping places along the way, such as 20/22, but they are only of passing interest. +++ Lessons learned today: Wait for the level in a market with wider swings Don't act too early if price finally gets there just because you fear that it can leave without you... Scratch when you have to... If price has left the range, SLA is enabled... +++

Hello everybody, apart from my perception of the current range I have attached a 60M chart which shows how price is interacting in between the ranges (+midpoints). I just found it interesting - and encouraging. So eventhough the way up seems limited with the 50% of fridays decline at 25 a breakout above 14 would be a valid trade. To the downside the 90 area with fridays low and the top of from february 16th/17th looks interesting. Edit: Looks like it gets tested very soon.. +++ General excercise for today: Focus more on the 5M and wait for price approaching the extremes patiently.. +++ 9:55: Kind of a "violent" reentry into the range - and a nice PM long... 10:50: Price at the apex (4402) of the hinge within the TR - absolutely nothing to do...patience..patience... 10:58: Potential false break down... 11:04: Took the short after the bounce of the apex...already at BE after the break of the lower limit of the range...stopped out... 11:08: Eventhough it smells like longs it might be wise to wait... +++ Lessons learned so far today: Sit on your hands if there is absolutely nothing to do. Maybe if one has a hinge within a range, "conservative patience" is needed - if this makes sense. Even when I took one trade (which got stopped out at BE) I was very rigid here and managed it in an obvious way, that I moved the stop to BE after it was approaching the lower range limit and then failed to break it... +++ 13:50: This bounce from the 50% at 25 might have been a tell...

Here is what I'm having today apart from PDH/PDL and the midpoint at 48. The range where price is currently trapped in was also the range from yesterday evening. Does this tell something? 9:50: Sierra stopped working so I was watching price solely on the book trader. Amazing... When it reached the 60 area the turn was very obvious. Maybe there is a reason why one does not see many charts on professional screen and only DOMs...I mean obviously you have to know your levels, but the rest can also be watched on the DOM. Btw. this is not about DOM patterns - have also been there : - just makes you crazy...:helloooo: Only Supply/Demand within AMT...

Price trades higher - new value - new range - new extremes - new opportunities? Does this makes sense the way I plotted the ranges? What 40D said a few days ago was really enlightening. "I don't trade bar intervals, I trade ranges." Do they make sense? Yes. Does the market have to make sense? No. Why? Because behavior doesn't always make sense. Why? Because traders don't always know what they want. They're watching each other just like you're watching them. Don't think they're not. The determining factor turned out to be the median of the pre-open range. This effectively cut yesterday's range in half, from 30pts to 15, which may account for at least some of the difficulties in trading it. How quickly could one have picked up on the possibility that the lower limit of today's range was going to be so much higher than yesterday's? And even if he acted on that, how much could he have reasonably expected, given his entry and exit criteria, to have earned out of that bounce back to the upper limit? The lesson, of course, is not Oh Well but trying to find those "tells" which might warn the trader that this time it's going to be different. And sometimes it's just not possible. Sometimes one has to just bail, or not enter at all, and wait until he achieves the clarity he needs to make a confident decision. It is, after all, only one session. As for the bar interval thing, yes. The bar interval is irrelevant unless you just have to see price moving and following the right tick doesn't do it for you. The danger in using a small interval is that you might freak when you think price is stalling or moving against you, whereas with a larger interval you wouldn't even notice. Thanks a lot.

Really a nice bounce from this midpoint. One has to be quick to enter...perfect example of a V... But the more I test this all, the more one can get confident taking the trades at those levels. Even when I still have problems to make this all quantifiable...

You mean something like that? I think I remember that you don't use channels on 60M - only daily and weekly? But in situations like we have on the daily right now, the 60M can be handy? I mean obviously it is. Just a general question... Actually I didn't draw anything at all. I just looked at it. The channel was "there". To ignore it would have been stupid, especially since I am a priest of AMT.

DB, for me the reentering above 44 (as the low of the ONR) was the sign to go long for me. I'm still holding a small part of the position. This was also an observation of the last days - that these ranges (as you said) can be used as a kind of compass. So it feels that my trades get a bit more of proper reasoning, which can be used to lower risk in the first place. And yes, it is temping to cut the profits short. Trademanagement is the next topic... Thanks for everything by the way. I will not be able to participate much over the next days and the next week - which is a shame. But I will keep working on it. For me this was a good day. I learned and observed a lot.

40% pro - 60% contra so far... 45 votes... DB, that you take the time to argue with these guys... This really needs a spiritual attitude.. Hats off... Comes with age, I suppose

With the danger of cluttering or driving this a bit to far I would like to post an observation based on the trigger at range extremes - which kept me up the last night. This is far from being ready to be traded with money so far. So just an observation. Partly inspired by 40D. So this should not lead into a volume discussion. This is just something I test and observe atm. Btw. these are the bid ask volume bars in Sierra... I think they are far away from "magic", but maybe exceptional volume @ level can giv a heads up together with the other signs of potential change...