dalby

soultrader, you contradict yourself. you argue that TA does not work in a particular instance, then support the fact that it does market profile is TA so are pivot points as well as patterns (i don't use patterns much either) but they are ALL ta

all studies of price/volume, or aggregates of same (tick, etc.) are TA. asking if TA works is like asking if surgery works - sometimes, and if in the right hands. but it's not 100% and there is a fair amount of subjectivity to decisions the one thing that drives me NUTS is when people say that technical analysts believe, or that TA implies that ALL knowledge is "priced in". that's stupid. all that is necessary for TA to work is that enough information is "priced in" such that one can make plays with positive expectancy. it does not follow that ALL fundies etc. are priced in. that's as absurd as efficient market theory is absurd,and for the same reasons.

i don't think the case for silver is as strong as the case for gold. this does NOT mean that i think silver won't go up concurrently with gold, it just means i don't see it as the longterm store of value/capital appreciation/hedge vehicle that i see gold being i do own both silver is, on average, more volatile than gold, which arguably makes it a better trading vehicle, depending on your style.

gold is going up of course, i have a LONG time frame. i started accumulating gold in 1999. i continue to buy dips and pare off some on thrusts upward it is by most metrics, CHEAP still

i scale out. i will sometimes scale in in the entry zone (like for example +3 to -3 from a pivot level (globex level, market profile level, etc.), but usually enter full size. i almost NEVER add in once the trade starts really moving my way (+5 POINTS) and i almost always enter with limit orders, not market orders.

it reversed near the VAH pivot, but it reversed exactly (to the tick) at yesterday's settle price that is a pivot level i ALWAYS watch

yes, i agree. the main rule on trend days is that IF i trade "countertrend" i trade smaller size and smaller targets. and concentrate on buying pullbacks etc. type of plays vs. the fade type of plays that make up the bulk of most trading days so called "trendless" or "rangebound" days are excellent for fading

this is spot on. every trade that occurs on the bid or the ask (which is 95%+ of YM trades) is a market order for one person and a limit order for the other. so, which side is making the market orders tells you a lot. that's the whole concept behind market delta, tick delta, etc. and a big part of tape reading.

i trade (futures) for income thus i try to make money every day. rangebound days are EMINENTLY tradeable. i love them. i trade them because they make money

i don't use oscillators (or lagging indicators in general) but yes i am RELATIVELY confident within the first hour if it is more of a trend or a range day. it's not rocket science, and there is not 100% accuracy. but i think its an important part of trading

i totally disagree. i think this is a big part of my methodology. recognizing the character of the market, and how it is developing (trend or rotation). nothing is 100% and nobody has a crystal ball, but i absolutely believe that you can have an edge and part of the edge comes from recognizing market development and that includes on an intraday basis

there is no "exact" answer. but here are some hints first of all, trend days are more likely to occur after volatility has contracted. with that in mind 1) ticks almost entirely above or below zero line 2) almost all, or all sectors strong bullish or bearish 3) large gap up/down with confirmation in breadth 4) price moves in direction of trend with strong confirming volume and pulls back with lighter volume 5) no, or minimal pullbacks in price after tick extremes 6) price blows through resistance levels without even a hiccup

januson, the classic accepted settings are this BBands : 20, 2 Keltner : 20, 1.5

the question(s) you are asking is unanswerable. you have to adopt a methodology that suits your trading personality, and stick to it. there is no "right" timeframe. I personally look at a 5 minute, a 15 minute, and a 233 tick charts along with Market Profile (I use volume based value areas and POC not time based btw)... but that's me. charts are merely models of what the market is doing. there is no right and wrong timeframes, tickframes, volumeframes, etc. you don't even need to use a chart at all if you don't want. i've seen a trader trade merely using tick, tape, and pit noise. all models necessarily filter out information. you have to decide what is and isn't important in your methodology. simply put... it depends. there is no perfection in trading. even the best trader is frequently WRONG. that's cause market analysis is probabilistic. there is no determinism here. it's a chaotic dynamic feedback system. it's not a swiss watch. the market necessarily adapts to what traders are doing, since it IS the sum total of all trades. what may work best NOW may not work as well 6 months from now, and almost certainly will not be as useful 10 years from now. there are many consistencies over time, but also many changes. i'm not trying to get all mystical it's far more important to have a solid business plan, solid risk management, solid discipline and a workable system with an edge, than to seek out optimum candles, etc. the mere fact that one is trying to do the latter distracts from the real aspects of trading which are managing risk while applying one's edge.

iirc, the big S&P pit contract has a better spread. doesn't it trade in 1/10's whereas the mini trades in 1/4's

TS is free if u set it up as your brokerage and make a piddly 10 round trips. well, free for the platform. the data fees are more expensive than IB (ts charges for CME for instance), but for $30 a month, you can have CME, CBOT, PHil etc.

thx. i will try this

i disagree with one thing as i said, i use naked puts in an INVESTMENT account, not a trading account in this respect, they are not a directional bet at all they are an investment strategy based on perceived value if i have a stock i want to buy if it goes down to 20 and it is currently at 22, i can sell a naked put. if the stock never reaches my target entry price, then i collect some premium if it reaches my target price (a bit below it), then if i get exercised, i have to buy the stock at my strike price which is where i perceived value in it this is one way to use naked puts that is not a drectional bet

thanks. i just started using TS friday, so my easy language aint up to snuff yet. i'm workin' on it.

i think one can ABSOLUTELY be a successful trader, and only trade part time but never think of it, or treat it as a hobby. it's a business, whether you spend 1 hour a week trading, or 80 that mindset is critical. as for ways to "passively" make money - well... I sweep profits every week from my futures account and place it in bonds, money market, dividend paying stocks, etc. those all provide a source of passive income I also mentor other traders, which also provides income.

i am pretty sure the big dow (25) *is* fungible with the mini dow (5). this would offer the same opp that the original trader desired, in terms of commissions saving - they would be very nice consider that if you buy 2 big dows (equivalent of 10 minis) you pay about $4 to be long 10 contracts vs. $20. that is a MAJOR commissions savings the problem is that commission is only really a big issue when you are scalping. if you are going for 3-8 points or so, it's much more significant than if you are going for 15+ and since the big dow has such terrible spread, it's non scalpable i am also pretty sure that the big dow is fungible with the mini through IB. not 100% sure though

the reality is that most options expire worthless, so at least on its face, selling premium would be higher probability than buying it. however, the loss is unlimited when you sell premium (with calls) options are great. i love them. but they are more complex than futures cause you have to understand time premium, volatility, etc. iow a lot more than merely direction. in futures, you only have to be right about direction to make $$$. in options, it's different. you can also have NO idea about direction, but be right about volatility and still make money. options are much more flexible than futures, too and if you are right, and you take the options position with the max profit, you can and will make a much larger return than you would with the equivalent futures position. for new traders, i don't recommend options. i think getting a grasp on price action, which will help you in all markets, is the first step.

an example of the liquidity of options was one day last year when GOOG had a big selloff. the MM's on the options were NOWHERE to be found. the spread was HUGE (much larger than the stock) such that people with calls would have to accept terrible price for fill and people with puts would get a much worse profit than they should have. and that's on GOOG which is a very liquid stock, with lots of options activity. i very much like writing naked puts. but that's an investment strategy not a trading strategy.

is there a way to modify this indicator, so it uses the "settlement" price vs. the close price. in my travels, so to speak, i have found that using the settle price instead of the close price for calc'ing floor trader pivots gives more accurate pivot levels.

there IS a difference. among other things, options price is affected by both volatility AND price. underlying price is only affected by... wait for it... price