dalby

i daytrade the YM usually, for swings - i prefer bear or bull option spreads (DIA or YM) or DIA.

yes, many people (myself) included use monthly and weekly pivots. needless to say, these are much wider between levels than daily pivots, and often don't come into play. i love confluence. like when a daily pivot, a weekly pivot, and a market profile level (like a virgin POC) all come together.

fwiw, the futures have been a "means reversion" market for the last few years, which means (generally speaking) fading extremes is more profitable than playing breakouts. imo, premarket research is very very helpful for this type of thing. i would never consider trading the YM without first doing my research as to NR7 etc. today (monday) was an NR7 day btw. we had a 43 point range today, which is 1/3 our 40 day average range of 128. volatility is much more cyclical (and predictable) than price. today was ALSO an inside day. hint #1: NR7 hint #2: inside day

forgot to mention... i've noticed also that the pivots calculated using the SETTLE price (which is sometimes different than the close) are usually better respected.

i am doing the same. i will keep fridays hi's and lows on my charts, for a reference point, but i will only be calculating floor trader pivots off of thursday's session

ime, with YM - the 24 hr session is superior (price respects these pivots) more than the day session. again, just my experience. i also find that YM more frequently "respects" floor trader pivots vs. ES. i have no idea why

kiwi, great post. i think that puts it very well btw, i can't understand people who won't hold a stock for more than 2-3 days? there are so many wonderful INVESTMENTS out there. sure, i scalp YM for a living, but i INVEST for the longterm.

generally speaking, fundamentals are much harder to use and have less utility, as one moves into short time frames. for example, nobody scalps the dow based on fundamentals. what the dow is at now vs. 15 seconds from now is a matter of supply/demand inequities (which TA helps you ferret out) vs. the PE of the 30 dow stocks, or the balance sheet of MSFT. etc. personally, some of my best investments/trades have been done without looking at ANY TA - no chart, etc. SOLELY based on fundies. but that's on a longterm timeframe (well, longterm for a person who scalps dow futures) if you are buying YM at X expecting it to pop 5 to 10 points in the next few seconds, etc. you obviously are relying on TA. i do both.

my favorite technical indicators for intraday futures are TICK, TRIN, Advance/Decline, Pivot levels, keltner/BB squeeze, volume, volume delta, tape reading and market profile levels. i don't use any lagging indicators on intraday time frame, apart from the BB/Keltner thang which i use sometimes. I use it as much as a filter (to keep me out of low probability trades) as a trading signal in and of itself on daily and longer time frames, I use Macd, BB/keltner i also pay strong attention in my screens to short interest.

what is at issue here in this discussion of TA : Psychology. I see this same sort of tactic in almost all areas of study, not just stocks. There will be a clearly defined term for a school of thought or practice. Some people who use a subset of same will try to distinguish THEIR method or practice or understanding by distinguishing it as NOT part of the greater set. For example: market profile. TA is defined as the study of price qua price. Iow, not the fundamental reasons WHY price did X, but WHAT price is doing and has done. Clearly, Market Profile is just another way of modeling price over time vs. bar charts or PnF charts, etc. Thus, it is a form of TA. But market profile adherents want to distinguish since OTHER TA is "icky" and "non-scientific" in their eyes. I've seen this tactic (usually unconscious) in everything from weight training to martial arts to rocketry

soultrader, you admitted you were wrong? this violates internet macho protocol 19-65 (b) that states that "No participant in internet chat or bulletin board posting can ever admit they are wrong about anything, lest the entire edifice of internet argumentation collapse." seriously, though - props for your post.

except it's an invalid conclusion. the premise is decent, but the conclusion does not logically follow. 1) people do not (always) trade rationally. thus, even if they KNOW "X", they do not trade that way many times out of fear, greed, hope, panic euphoria. we have all experienced this in our OWN trading, and the rest of the world is exactly the same 2) again, you are ignoring DD. i use all sorts of unconventional indicators (i'm not talking electronic price indicators - i'm talking groups of people's habits, store managers, etc.) when i research, and that price is not known to many, if not most people. many people who DO know it, don't trade at all, so that information is not reflected in price. etc. etc. etc

my best investment ever (on a %age basis) was a (former) penny. JSDA got in when it was an OTC. is now in the 20's. so, i'll always have a soft spot. but the fills etc. are RIDICULOUS. imo, spread it around (don't put too much into any one issue), and accept the volatility and games associated with them. i totally agree that trading them actively can be very difficult as somebody who trades CBOT, which has complete transparency and no MM games, pennies are another game entirely

i hate to sound like a broken record, but all information is NOT priced in this is the EXACT same fallacy that led to efficient market hypothesis (which had the added fallacy that all market participants were rational, and all information was INSTANTLY reflected in price). if you go out there and pound the pavement, or if you have good insight (through experience, training, or whatnot) you have information that most people do NOT know, and is therefore NOT priced into the market that's why there are many edges, and why information is not ALL priced in. cause information is not perfectly or completely disseminated AND people have different abilities to interpret the information and apply it to the stock.

personally, on an intraday time frame, i don't use any lagging type indicators (MACD RSI) etc. iow indicators that give readings based on past price readings over a given series i do use stuff like key reference areas - pivots of all sorts (market profile, globex etc.), tape action, TICK etc. whatever works for you. i love to use lagging indicators on daily weekly charts. i also find fundamentals to be VERY useful for investments, not so much with shorter term trades whatever works for you... i hate the fact that so many people are polarized into either the (fundamentals are the best way, and TA is voodoo OR all info is priced into the chart) two camps, when reality clearly shows that there are edges in fundies, edges in TA, and edges in intermarket analysis, etc. to clarify, it's ok to be a TA only or fundies only trader. it is illogical to think/claim that your way is the "only" way or the best way. imo it's ALL good. many many many ways to skin the market cat

pivotprofiler, i make an excellent living using TA so don't tell me what fails your premise is false repeating it ad infinitum will not change that i will continue to use fundamentals for investments (and some trades) and TA because i know that all information is NOT reflected in price and i will continue to daytrade futures using TA. cause i know that TA works. because ENOUGH information is encoded in price history to give me an edge the bottom line doesn't fail tell warren buffet that all information is encoded in price

bear, the standing orders are matched on open. that's how it can lock limit for days in row.

TA is not just patterns patterns are part of TA. you can trade SOLELY watching tape (no charts whatsoever) and still be using TA

"Like it or not, if you use TA you are assuming that EVERYTHING THAT IS KNOWN ABOUT A STOCK, COMMODITY, INDEX, OR CURRENCY IS REFLECTED IN PRICE." wrong this is not a valid conclusion price gives information. that is why people can trade successfully using TA. it does not encompass ALL information, which is why people can also trade successfully using fundies. your conclusion does not follow from the evidence, and it uses the exact same logical error that efficient market hypothesis people use two sides of the same coin. neither is true

market profile does NOT fall outside TA all market profiles are is a model of price/volume over time which is exactly what ANY chart is. its just a different way of modeling it this is what drives me nuts is this ninja superspecial religiosity when it comes to Market Profile and that it's not TA like those icky lagging indicators etc. TA is the study of price, and information derived from price clearly, no equivocation, MP is TA 2nd. i get really tired of this stupid meme that TA means EVERYTHING that is already known is reflected in price. that is complete and utter rubbish. you can CLEARLY get an edge using fundies, just like you can with TA. *if* all knowledge was reflected in price, this would not be the case. i love TA. i make my frigging living using TA. but i don't play that silly "all information is reflected in price" game cause it's simply bogus enough information is reflected by price, such that skilled traders can use TA (the study of price) TO trade successfully. it does NOT follow that all is reflected in price. i have made my best returns this last year using fundies, where i did not even look at a chart. because my edge (in those stocks) came from fundamentals. there is this little academic myth called efficient market hypothesis (still the rage among many academics) that markets are efficiently priced. it's rubbish there is this other myth popularized among many TA adherents, that ALL information is reflected in price. this is ALSO rubbish

brownsfan, it is pretty common out there in the wild regions of the internet. of course here, on this exalted board, it is a lot more rare.

this is one of the reasons i mostly trade ags through spreads, instead of outright directional trades.

i hate semantical wanks as well i see a lot of people who use TA (especially market profile) want to distinguish THEIR form of TA (the alleged scientific non-voodoo kind) from other TA the simplest way to look at it is - if it's not fundamental analysis - it's probably TA and if it relies on price, or any derivative of same - it's TA. thus, market profile is TA (although most MP users hate to admit that) etc. fwiw, i love TA. and i trade the dow minis intraday i also love fundies. i have bought some investments without even looking at any charts whatsoever. but i would not do that with an intraday futures trade, needless to say

among other reasons - because the limit is so large it doesn't halt until a $10 per move. with oil at 60, that's a 16% move. so, it's a much larger move to get a halt, then the amount necessary for ags to lock limit notice also that crude does not lock limit (as in shut down for the day) when this amount of movement occurs. it is a 5 minute halt only there is no maximum move. theoretically oil could trade right to zero without a close i'd be a buyer at that level quoted from the NYMEX site: Maximum Daily Price Fluctuation $10.00 per barrel ($10,000 per contract) for all months. If any contract is traded, bid, or offered at the limit for five minutes, trading is halted for five minutes. When trading resumes, the limit is expanded by $10.00 per barrel in either direction. If another halt were triggered, the market would continue to be expanded by $10.00 per barrel in either direction after each successive five-minute trading halt. There will be no maximum price fluctuation limits during any one trading session.

"My biggest question is this: do technical analysis work when day trading the futures markets? From my personal experience specializing in the dow mini futures, the answer is no. Let me explain" that's what i'm responding to. that's a pretty clear statement. he said TA does nt work when day trading the futures market. then, goes on to say how it DOES work - iow, contradiction. fwiw, the study of PRICE is TA. if ALL you are watching is tape (the purest way to see just price and nothing else) no charts, no indicators, etc. that's TA pivot points, support/resistance, etc. TA