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dalby
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Everything posted by dalby
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Hello, First and foremost I believe in reducing costs. Heck, when I started out buying mutual funds (20 yrs ago), I listened to my frugal grandfather's advice and went with Vanguard. I have used Linnsoft's MP program and it is excellent. However, I simply refuse to pay monthly to use a program. Call me old skool, but I want to buy a program and own it, not rent it and certainly not at $60 a month. I currently use Quotetracker, TOS, TD Ameritrade, and IB. Most of my charting is through the first two. TOS' Market Profile indicator sux. With that in mind, has anybody used FINAL's MP program. I see it is $249 one time cost and works as an add-on for Ninjatrader. I have never used either, but since NT is free, and FINAL's MP is a one-time cost, it seems the way to go. I realize I can download a trial version of the MP program. I am just soliciting reviews from people who have used it. Good? Bad? Any other options for MP that work with any of the above data vendors and don't require a monthly subscription a la linnsoft? tia Dalby
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exactly. that is why volume profiles work fine with 24 hr charts. obviously time based profiles not so much
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im not sure what you mean by "increased risk" in re: futures. the only increased risk is increased leverage. if you want to trade less than (for example) a 65k (approximately) notional value in the dow, then using DIA's or even DIA single stock futures is the way to go. 100 shares of DIA has 1/5 the notional value of 1 YM contract. but that is the only "increased risk" trading 500 shares of DIA has the EXACT same risk as trading 1 YM. the risk comes (to most traders) from the fact that you can use MUCH MUCH more leverage with futures than stocks (and ETF's trade like stocks). if you have a 50k account, you can trade (assuming 4:1 intraday margin) 200k notional value with your 50k account using ETF's if you have a 50k ira, you can trade 50 k notional value using ETF's but using futures you can trade (depending on your broker) approximately 1.1 million dollars of notional value. so, you can get over 5 (at least) times the leverage. THAT is the danger if you are conservative with leverage, there is absolutely no danger in risk and as far as overnight holds, there is LESS risk since the futures trade (almost ) 24 hrs, and you can set stops for the overnight session
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index futures (Specifically the dow and the s&P) are PURE supply/demand proxies. stocks, to lesser and greater extent - are not the difference is that when institutions want to BUY (in general) they use futures, to a large extent. and when they want to see (in general) ditto... this is especially true in times of chaos, euphoria, and panic an individual stock, especially a thinner issue means you are dealing with market maker games. not an issue with the dow. the dow is a group of 30 very big stock. no individual player (or two) is gonna have much of a significant impact on it, except in rare and short bursts. so, that's a +, at least for me. for those that are very good at playing L2 games, etc. they might prefer certain stocks PERSONALLY, i prefer to trade index futures (intraday)... that's how i make my living. stocks i prefer to swingtrade, and buy for wealth building and dividends, but that's me. another nifty thing about futures (supply/demand proxy) is that internals can really really help you out, if you know how to use them - watching related sectors, bonds, adv/decl line etc. not so much with stocks
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i find that the bollinger band squeeze (not invented by hubert, but popularized for him ) is VERY useful not just as a way to get a good trade, but to AVOID a bad trade. iow, i have setups that i will not take (short) when a long squeeze is setting up this has saved me a lot of money. because when the squeeze sets up and then my fade situation sets up, it's the WRONG time to fade (usually) carter (haven't read the book but watched the videos) started me on my path to profitability. i have him (among others) to thank for that
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How important is physical conditioning to you?
dalby replied to Reaver's topic in General Discussion
while kettlebells are a nice training tool, i think they are a (at this point waning) fad in the same way swiss balls were. and i've used both, but they are hardly the magick device that tsatsouline et al will have you believe -
if you are getting psyched out by the tape - don't use it simple. i traded futures for a while w/o tape. it is certainly not necessary to use. i do use it, but it is not necessary. so, if it causes you trouble... don't use it
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How important is physical conditioning to you?
dalby replied to Reaver's topic in General Discussion
bulknutrition (aka 1fast400) is a GREAT website for bulk stuff. btw, here's a great way to eat oatmeal... first of all, i prefer NON rolled oats. irish style steel cut outs (cylindrical instead of smooshed flat. they have more nutrients as well, since they don't press them). oats milk (can use nonfat dry milk powder) banana protein powder egg whites once you cook the oats, add the milk, powder and egg whites and cook it up then add - splenda, and slices of fruit. (banana, etc.) can also add cinnamon (which is actually a nice fat loss aid believe it or not) if you are really hardcore, fry up some liver to eat with your oatmeal!!! -
bas stuff looks pretty good. i have done all sorts of workouts - run 2 marathons, done powerlifting and olympic lifting comps, etc. the HARDEST thing was the 20 rep squat routine. period. a la "super squats"
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How important is physical conditioning to you?
dalby replied to Reaver's topic in General Discussion
in answer to the question - very. i have a background in olympic style weightlifting and to a lesser extent powerlifting. i weight train 2-5 days a week, eats lots of protein and i love working out -
i no longer trade Forex per se, but i did take a position in FXE quite some time ago in one of the accounts i manage (basically a dollar hedge). this is a great lowleverage way to take advantage of forex fwiw. it's a EURUSD etf, basically. now, i WISH i had 10 lots since i caught the equivalent of about 800 pips but... it's a consideration for taking a position play for those who want currency exposure, or to hedge against currency exposure
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absolutely, anybody who trades futures with a "mental stop" deserves to lose ALL their money. im pretty convinced some of the best moves are forced liquidations by traders having exactly that happen to them - brokers closing their accounts
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What are the best technical indicators to daytrade YM?
dalby replied to sudha78's topic in Beginners Forum
i also use no "classic" lagging indicators e.g. MACD, RSI, etc. i HAVE found the TICK DELTA ELD to be VERY helpful in confirming trades, ESPECIALLY for countertrend reversals. it is a wonderful tool mostly i watch key reference areas (market profile levels, pivots) and internals (sectors and advance decline and TICK) and make decisions based on how price reacts i also have a few setups that use specific formulae as to VIX and/or TRIN, etc. but none are particularly complex. i stay away from lagging indicators, which are what retail (ie losing) traders use i pay attention to price, internals, and the big picture -
right the tape is what ACTUALLY is happening. it cannot lie. it is what it is. level II is simply (to a large extent) what market makers and institutions WANT you to think is happening. you are correct about the market adjusting. there WAS an edge to level II watching (a relatively obvious one) so of course the market adapted. heck, there was a big edge with the SOES bandits. needless to say that got taken care of
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i have still been able to use 6-15 pt stops on YM (even today) - you just have to wait for a pristine setup fwiw, the russell has now lost ALL gains for the year. the dow hasn't. so, in that respect the volatility is definitely greater in russell (was up big is now flat. dow is still up)
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it most definitely has i used to draw an equivalence between a (roughly) -900 tick and a +1000 tick iow, on a relatively neutral (relatively flat) day, a -900 represents a tick extreme to the downside, but a +1000 represents a tick extreme to the upside. based on daily averages, as well as reaction to extremes, it has CLEARLY been skewed away from its positive bias. it plays a little differently in general, fwiw. but definitely has had an adjustment downwards. and this is taking into account some of the current strongly bearish days (iow, adjusting for the fact that obviously when dow is down 300 pts, tick will be bearish)
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it's free with IB
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generally speaking, a 5 minute chart or a tick chart is better for playing pivots... i use a 15 min (and market profile) for frame of reference also... if you actually said "i'm not using stop loss" you CLEARLY should not be trading futures. are you kidding me? today was a phenomenal trading day for me, fwiw. the market tells for a big sell were everywhere, support and resistance were clearly defined and well respected, etc. as much as i like narrow range fade days like yesterday, days like today are a gift!
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one key thing with pivots is that the first test of a pivot USUALLY will hold. carter claims this, and i have found it to be true. and you will get at least a 5-8 pt bounce (on YM). the first test of a pivot level is practically a 'gimme trade'. it's a higher probability setup. of course, you have to watch market internals, but a good general rule is to take the first test of a pivot level if market internals are not saying otherwise
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T&S in tradestation *is* tick by tick the disadvantage is that in very fast markets the T&S will sometimes lag the price action IB is NOT pure T&S (which means tick charts are also not precise) why? because IB "chunks" data. when the market is relatively slow, you will see the actual time/sales (including your own). but when the sales are going through at a faster pace, IB will aggregate the data. this means IB provides inaccurate data for "delta" indications, which makes it basically worthless to use as a datafeed for marketdelta, for instance. personally, I use an IB advisor account to trade mine (and OPM) money, a tradestation account which i do small trading in to get the free platform/charting, and Investor RT. if you are relying on IB timesales you are NOT seeing true time sales. keep that in mind
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i'm sorry, but i got as far as the first sentence. which is simply false. it is NOT a zero sum game (trading) unless you are talking futures or options. stocks are not. he qualifies that with a "in respect to underlying fundamental values" which is a hedge and still WRONG. stocks are constantly MISPRICED. a good trader/investor can find stocks that are priced low relative to their fundamental value, buy them and sell them higher. there is NOT an equal amount of money lost and won. it is NOT zero sum. and the idea that people can be rational and equally adept at determining the fundamental is absurd. about as logical as "efficient market hypothesis" which is what i would expect from an academic.
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blowfish, you have reiterated what classical philosophers refer to as the concept of "egoistical hedonism".
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i have been helped out by others, so i like to reciprocate. i also appreciate DIALOGUE. certainly, i am not going to reveal individual setups. i worked too hard to develop them and would only release same to a client. i respect that many others do the same, feel the same. that is not to say that i have not been greatly helped by free advice etc. which often is worth MUCH more than you pay for it the signal/noise ratio is higher here than any other forum i have found on the internet, ESPECIALLY for index futures stuff.
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"communications with globex" we were talking YM. YM doesn't trade on globex (not yet at least. when the merger goes through...)