charlie626

Great speech by Governor King on January 25th. Here's the link if anyone is interested in starting a conversation on it. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/speeches/2011/speech471.pdf He was talking about the domestic impact of inflation on how the monetary policy plays a role in the overall State's economic health. FYI, we also have manufacturing, construction, and services PMI coming out this week. should be interesting... I'll try to post my trades as i make them. good luck all!

Thank BW for that PDF! It seems to still be relevant given that it was written back in 2004. I like the name too - Big Ben Strategy. What I've seen as of late is that in a nice GBP trending market, the setups are very clear. I think during this last GBP/CHF 1.5400 resistance level the market conviction wasn't as clear or as sustained which makes sense considering that it was a significant support level in the past. I'm interested to see how an updated (my own) version of this Big Ben Strategy will look. Give me a few days and i'll see what i can come up with myself. hopefully it's interesting enough to post...

At 4:54am EST, set my stop to 1.5312. current rate at 1.5292...

Hi Everyone, Looks like to me that 1.5400 is a ceiling for this pair. I've seen it try to break 1.5400 with no momentum. Lots of sellers there keeping it down. I figure it's been long enough and the pair is overbought. I'm looking for a swing trade ratcheting my stop along the way. At the moment, I put my stop at 1.5400 so it's a free trade. At 3:09am EST, current rate is 1.5350. Here's my trade confirmation: Deal Date, Confirmation #, Buy/Sell, Pair, Contract Rate, Deal Rate 1/21/2011 1:33:01 AM 8123434 Sell GBP/CHF -40,000.00 1.54000 I'll keep y'all posted and how it all ends up.

with the 3am news bad for GBP and CHF news at 3:15 good, going short. will get out when the 1st derivitive of the 1hr SMA (n=4) turns positive. here's deal confirmation: 1/10/2011 3:22:43 AM>Deal Confirmed : 78403234 . You Sold GBP 500,000 , You Sold At 1.49735 , You Bought CHF 748,675 Confirmation #: 78403234 Error Description: Rate: 1.49735 Deal Success: True PlaceOCOOrder,True,1/10/2011 12:24:43 AM,,GBP/CHF,GBP/CHF,-500000,-155.585520174256,776745,-748675,1.497350,-776745,0.00000,0.00000,B,500000,500000,,

i'm back to the ol' GBPCHF after a nice weekend off. waiting for the 3:00am EST GBP news and 3:15 am EST CHF news. then wait for the breakout and see what happens.

awesome information! that makes alot of sense about the stops and the timing coinciding with the market opening. i'll add GBP to the watch list. thanks PP and BW!!! ps: i use the 15-min interval for my stdev. i inadvertently didn't include the interval in my previous post.

1/6/2011 2:43:50 AM>Deal Confirmed : 78270348 . You Bought GBP 500,000 , You Bought At 1.50295 , You Sold CHF 751,475 Confirmation #: 78270348 Error Description: Rate: 1.50295 Deal Success: True PlaceOCOOrder,True,1/5/2011 11:45:46 PM,,GBP/CHF,GBP/CHF,500000,-154.894671623296,775890,751475,1.502950,775890,0.00000,0.00000,S,500000,500000,,

For example, last night GBP/CHF started moving right before 3am EST at 1.47885 and within 7 hours reached 1.50000. I use STDEV (close, n=7) to let me know when the pair starts moving and when it crosses a certain STDEV threshold, I trade in the direction of the move. anything below the threshold is considered a false breakout (no matter how good it might look). I'm watching the pair tonight. actually, I have an automated program that runs every 15 minutes, checks STDEV, and sends me a text message when it's crossed the STDEV threshold. I'll post my trade when I make it to (hopefully) get some feedback from the community. I'm really interested to know if this is something that has only started happening or is characteristic of this pair/currency (i.e. CHF).

I've been tracking GBP/CHF for the month of December and seen it react in one direction or another starting at around 3am. I think this correlates to the 12 noon Swiss time bond yield announcements. I've seen this type of behaviour with the CHF currency for along time now but bother researching it. Was wondering if anyone is familiar with this currency and can confirm what causes it to move so much right at 3am EST? You see it happening in USD/CHF but definitely not to the degree it moves against GBP. Thanks!