bojangle

Marking up the QQQ chart to get the ball rolling again in this thread. This would be a swing-trade idea. If we break above the 76s, the market has potential to push above the 77s for new highs. If we can't push above the 76s and fail, I expect a break lower for the 74s. That may be a good place to buy. In the larger picture, the market seems to be advancing less and less. This leads me to think the market may be getting to long and we could pullback in the bigger picture below the 74s. Though, that is a long-term idea. Good swing trade ideas are: break above 76s or a test of the 74s for a push up beyond the 77s.

I believe the real battle is being able to lose, rather than being able to win. Anybody can win. Can you lose? No method guarantees a 100% win rate. We must all lose at some point. Stop fighting that battle. Focus your effort on being able to lose better than anybody else. Focus on probability and risk management.

I don't trade the Nasdaq, but based on my method, here is a marked-up chart with my s/r. The yellow line, on a break below, is where i'd expect liquidation to happen. The varying thickness of the lines represents level of importance, to me. I prefer to patiently wait for good opportunities, rather than forcing myself to put the "day" in "day trader."

I trade the bigger picture in the day time-frame via major levels and major rotations. I trade what I think will happen based on past (price action, news) and current information (price action, news), of course - which is all i can do. I should clarify something: I trade what I can. I see no point in having these long-term ideas if i don't even trade outside the day timeframe. It would just be purely academic and philosophical. I focus on what i can trade.

Hey Patuca! No idea! the market's balancing right now after a major upmove. I'm a short-term trader trading for the long-term - I honestly don't care enough to think about the next year when all i need to think about is tomorrow! Way too many macroeconomic variables to take into account, anyways. - Bo

Consider for a second the nature of trading: uncertainty. We don`t know what will happen for sure. Therefore, we should do what is probable. So, what`s probable? The bigger picture would logically have more meaning than the micro, right? So, trade with the bigger picture. What does that mean? Trade with the bigger picture rotations (composite volume profiles). Volume bulges were created by churn. Low volume areas were created by swift moves through or quick moves away. Which provides a better edge? (it's obvious) Another thing: The market is constantly searching for value/acceptance daily. The ES is a very news driven market. So, knowing that, use the news as a way to gauge whether value/acceptance of today's session is most likely to change or stay the same. If you believe it will change, trade away from prior value/acceptance. If not, trade towards it. To add in probability, always align yourself with the major rotation and trade from a low volume area. So, with probability taken care of, next is trade management and risk management. It's cute to hold out for large winners, but is the market more likely to move majorly or average? An average rotation is realistic. Adjust your stop accordingly to have a 1:2 risk:reward or better. But make sure you trade from where your idea is wrong. There's more probability for you. Next, let go. Does focusing on results actually get you anywhere? Nope. Focusing on the process does. You naturally want control. In trading, you don't control what will happen. Your being should not depend on your trading results. If it does, your ego will feel every loss and you will stress yourself out trying to find the strategy that wins 100% of the time. A 100% win rate is something only twitter arrow posters have. That is an edge. Trade for the long-term. 5 trades is meaningless in a trading career. Know that with a 50% win rate, you can make very good returns by all standards. This is not a get-rich-quick scheme. My edge in as few words as possible: Take probable trades within my r:r parameters. Trade for the long-term. Bojangle out!

not having a high win rate entails being able to read the useless micro... a skill hardly anyone has, IMO. i need to trade at meaningful levels that produce meaningful movements to make up for a 2 pt minimum stop that is absolutely required in the ES. if i can't make up what i gain from losing, then i have to move on to another market and conclude that the ES is a game for the people with edges within the micro.... very skilled and highly experienced traders. the truth is, less than 5% are successful at trading. until someone posts their real trades that they really took, it's all just text.

Originally Posted by bojangle » given the context, i would only short the 1400s if the day-timeframe was weak and then only would i short it on first test. the big picture is up and strong, but if the timeframe in which i trade (day) is weak, i'll take that short. What would you think it would look like if it were "weak" at 1400? Right now, we'd had to auction higher to even get there, although that could change by rth open. Quote: Originally Posted by bojangle » reading the order-flow in the ES is kind of useless except for reducing heat... changes too rapidly. I can think of a good number of people who would disagree with this. Are you thinking in general or at the specific areas you define for possible entry? Quote: Originally Posted by bojangle » so, the only tradable pre-defined area as of right now is the 89s-90s. the day timeframe can present some more opportunities, but i'll only be looking to take ones where there is potential for real reward and not 1 pt or 2 and where, if i am stopped out, i am wrong. That's your only area to trade in is it? Quote: Originally Posted by bojangle » the idea of S/R is romantic, but if i am not wrong when stopped out.... what is the point in the trade? There's a chance that you are just wrong in your s/r levels and how you apply/trade them. But remember, even the very best methods and traders lose, so don't expect that you can't be stopped out without being "wrong" using a method that is actually viable. ----------------------------------------------------- I'm trading the day timeframe, so weakness would be price moving without momentum upwards, away from value/acceptance. doesn't mean it won't break up eventually, it just means that right now, in my timeframe that i trade, there is no conviction to the upside. regarding order-flow, i am talking about everywhere. the majority of the time it changes in a second from what it was... so it is very unreliable. the 89s-90s are basically my only good pre-defined trading spot besides strong res at 1400s and strong support at the 67s (moved prior support area down). the day timeframe can set up in w/e way it will and inflection points can arise in the short-term and that inflection point at the 89s-90s can be eliminated based on what the market does in the day-timeframe. i use volume profiling to determine my s/r and i mostly place the extremes of the s/r zones at the extremes. it's just the way they're traded.... if i am not wrong there and the s/r isn't strong, then there is no point to put on a trade as i have already concluded, at least for now, that the micro/order-flow is pretty much useless except for attempting to reduce heat and watching for absorption (even that isn't very reliable) so why would i use that to define when i am wrong? anyways, you know my levels now.

given the context, i would only short the 1400s if the day-timeframe was weak and then only would i short it on first test. the big picture is up and strong, but if the timeframe in which i trade (day) is weak, i'll take that short. reading the order-flow in the ES is kind of useless except for reducing heat... changes too rapidly. thinking about it, pretty much the only areas i think are really tradable are "inflection" points where if my stop is hit, i am wrong. if my stop is hit and my idea is not wrong, then what was the point? i would be relying on the entry to be right which is pointless as the ES changes rapidly in the micro. so, the only tradable pre-defined area as of right now is the 89s-90s. the day timeframe can present some more opportunities, but i'll only be looking to take ones where there is potential for real reward and not 1 pt or 2 and where, if i am stopped out, i am wrong. the idea of S/R is romantic, but if i am not wrong when stopped out.... what is the point in the trade?

going to reduce the levels i watch to strong s/r and inflection points. big picture: uptrend is still strong. buyers continuously showing aggressiveness. trade plan: line in sand at 89s. short below. long above. resistance above is 1400s. support below is 1380s.

i'll join in on this thread. i usually have a pretty good analysis and plan, but i'm now stuck on how to trade. i've been finding that the only way to actually make money in the ES is to be able to have a majority of breakeven trades or max losses of a few ticks tops with a 90%+ win rate. if you don't have a 90% win rate, then you can't scale-out because when you lose, you're taking 2 pts + (stops less than 2 pts in the ES are non-sense) losses on full positions and your avg max win will be a few pts (market doesn't move much more than this) on 50% of your full positions..... so the math doesn't work for that strategy without a 90%+ win rate. in the ES, a all in-all out method doesn't work because there is no such thing as 1:7 risk to reward trades... hasn't been since summer of 2011 and then since 2008-2009 before that. a 90%+ win rate is practically impossible. so, i'll post my plan and the results i have after trading that plan (my pnl). i trade 2 contracts, max risk of 2 pts per trade. the plan is adjusted during the day according to what i am seeing. this is pretty much my last try before i quit for good and work on my other businesses. maybe you guys will be able to spot something that is wrong with my trading and i, yours.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwKYjZ_8EcE]YouTube - ‪We Are Traders - A tribute to all those who trade‬‏[/ame]

TF levels for 11/16/10

when i read over steve's posts i am thinking to myself that i am making a mechanical method out of the market. "cluster of bars = support = buy". i don't ask myself "why price has stopped here?" single lot traders can't do that. large traders obviously control the market and they hold onto their positions long-term, basing their trading on the only factors that have a long-term impact: the economic info. if we stand back, we can see where they entered, where they put on positions. levels created by day traders can't be reliable. most likely larger traders with size are watching these levels and screwing over all the day traders who establish positions at them. i just don't know, but i'm not approaching trading from the right angle. i get lost in the noise, which is what larger traders probably want to happen. there's just no information at all available anywhere on this subject but the few scraps the professional prop. guys decide to give to the retail crowd. i'm looking at a plane, and i'm seeing a milkshake. i'm not stating any facts here and i know a lot of what i said can be questioned. i'm just trying to figure it out and my ego isn't on the line.

I've been looking at charts and have been using the boxing method to find s/r. Instead of time based charts, i've been looking at constant volume based charts cause it just makes more sense to me. helps see the larger rotations that the smaller rotations make. these things together have given me the sight to start a trade play-book of trading scenarios for the day. i used to look at the constant volume bars a while ago, and i seem to always come back to them. they really are a great visual of how volume is distributed across prices. for some reason reading the volume profile was a challenge for me. these bars easily show price acceptance building higher/lower.